Index, forex, stocks, Commodities 20th August 2011 Weekly

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

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DOW and S&P Index Futures

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S&P 500 E-mini Futures 19th August 2011 Daily recap

There is a breakout of Thursday’s lows which should move towards Friday's lows. (random support)

Resistance the 50% levels.

S&P Weekly and Daily range.



S&P continued with the break & extend pattern from Thursday down into Friday’s lows.

Friday’s lows formed support sending the market back towards the 50% level, which formed resistance and pushed the trend back down, as part of the overall move towards lower lows in September.

My Expectation that the trend is moving towards the Weekly lows and then the September lows.

However, there is the possibility that the trend rises upwards next week towards the Weekly 50% level, but then continues lower in the 4th week .

Weekly level and August lows @ 1115 comes into play early next week.










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SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 19 August 2011 recap

Trend guide the Weekly and Daily lows @ 4114/ 4122…


The market could remain below 4122 for most of the day, and then make a move towards 4137 after 2.50pm

SPI Weekly and Daily range.



As noted in yesterday’s report:- Thursday's sell pattern should see Friday open around the Weekly levels @ 4122-54.

In fact the Market opened below the Weekly levels, 4122 formed resistance,  and then pushed the SPI lower into the close after 2:50pm.

As per Weekly reports, the expectation the market is moving down towards the Weekly lows, and then the September lows….

Weekly Report out tomorrow....
















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S&P 500 E-mini futures 18th August 2011 Daily recap

I'm now looking for the market to begin to move down from Thursday onwards.

my view is that Thursday is moving down, using the 5-day 50% levels as trend guide

 
S&P Weekly and Daily cycles


As noted a number of weeks ago and explained in the Weekly report....

There was a bias to continue upwards for the first 3-days in the 3rd Week of the current month and then selling from Thursday onwards.

Today's Selling began after the cash market closed on Wednesday, as it was below the channel highs @ 1190.50

and then confirmed with a breakout of the channel lows and 5-day 50% level @ 1178

Thursday's selling has resulted in a breakout of the daily lows










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SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 18th August 2011 recap

The 3-day up move is over and the SPI can't break the August lows.

Today is the first time i'll be focusing on Shorts:- Resistance 4289

Below 4263, first target is 4221, and as low as 4154-4122 by Friday

SPI Weekly and Daily range

Thursday ‘sell’ day aligned with the August lows and confirmed with a breakout of 4263, with first target reached @ 4221

My view was that a 3-day rally could move much higher, but it was from Thursday onwards that could see selling pressure in the markets, 3rd day up move and the SPI can’t crack the August lows, whilst the
S&P 500 can’t crack the 3rd quarterly level @ 1208.50.

Today's selling (Thursday) has resulted in a push downwards, aligned with August lows, and a reversal could see the SPI back into the weekly  levels (4154/4122) by Friday.

Any further selling in the market, as part of a potential move towards lower lows in September, will need to see the SPI trading below 4137 (next week), whilst using the 'new weekly levels' as a trend guide, as illustrated in the above chart.

Further downside will need to be on the back of US markets following a similar Thursday ‘sell’ pattern.







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S&P 500 E-mini futures 17th August 2011 Daily report recap

My view is that the 3rd day will try and rise upwards using support @ 1290.50, & first target 14 points.


Wednesday is either going to continue towards the daily highs, or it’s going to struggle to break and 3rd Quarterly level @ 1208.50.

S&P Weekly and Daily range.

Same pattern over the past 3-days of rising upwards 14 points, but not continuing towards the higher timeframe levels, as part of a 3-day rally.

As noted in the Weekly report…..

A 3rd Week rally normally begins with a 3 day move, as part of retesting the previous Weekly breakout or at least the August 50% level @ 1245.


If that occurs, then traders should begin to look for shorts once again from Thursday onwards.And if everything goes to plan, the market slowly unwinds and begins another downward leg into September lows.

The market hasn’t continued up towards 1245 by Thursday, or at least the Weekly 50% level @ 1226, as this would provide levels to use as resistance:- Sell higher daily open using resistance

The 3-days are now over, which means the S&P can’t break the Quarterly level @ 1208.50 and Thursday begins to reversal pattern back towards lower lows, confirmed with price trading below the Weekly level @ 1269

However, because this week hasn’t tested upper levels, this week could now remain in a tight consolidating pattern above 1269/73, and then push upwards over the next 5-days (next week) to close out the month of August near the monthly 50% level.

Basically, the ideal short-trade from Thursday onwards hasn't aligned with upper levels






Posted by

SPI futures Australian Stock Market 17th August 2011

Today's trading is based on whether Wednesday is a 3rd UP day

Using 4221 as support.

SPI Weekly and Daily cycles…

Early support from 4221 and a rise of 42 points + (84 points primary range)

However, the August lows once again stall the trend from rising higher. (Wednesday @ 4319)

As per Weekly report....

"Next week begins the 3rd Week, and if it follows last week’s report,
then the market should continue to rally upwards over the first 3-4 days.

This is part of retesting the previous weekly breakout @ 4321, and could
be as high as 4404 by next Thursday. (#C)"

The SPI has now completed its 3-day up move, as part of retesting the previous weekly breakout @ 4321, and If the SPI is going to be around 4404 by Thursday, then US markets need to follow a similar pattern and continue upwards on the 3rd day.







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S&P E-mini Futures 16th August 2011 recap

My view remains that the first 3-days of the 3rd week will continue to rise upwards,

Support @ 1184
S&P Weekly and Daily range



S&P moved down from Monday highs into the support levels, providing another 14-point rise, but then a failure to continue towards Tuesday’s highs @ 1215

As you are aware, my view is an upward move that will continue towards the Weekly 50% level and as high as the August lows @ 1245 by Thursday’s open.

However, after Tuesday failing to follow the daily range towards 1215, I’m finding it hard to see that happening.









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SPI futures 16th August 2011 daily report recap

My view is that the 3rd week of this month could take the SPI as high as 4405 to 4457 by Thursday.


However, the August lows could form an early resistance zone today and move back down into Tuesday’s level @ 4236

SPI Weekly and Daily range.

August lows have formed resistance on Tuesday, which isn’t surprising, as it’s part of a monthly breakout pattern that could extend towards lower lows in September.

Today moved down into Support @ 4236 and then rose  upwards precisely 42 points, but it then failed to continue upwards, instead price remained around Tuesday’s level @ 4236, which doesn't help with a 3-day rally.

As you are aware, my view remains with a 3-day up-move during the 3rd week of the month and then 'potential' selling from Thursday onwards.


Therefore any further gains in the short-term will need to be on the back of US markets continuing higher overnight, otherwise it could struggle to break the August lows, and then continue lower later in the week.



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S&P 500 Emini Futures 15th August 2011 recap

As per weekly report, my view is that US markets are moving upwards for the first 3-days

Monday’s highs random resistance.

S&P Weekly and daily range.



Monday’s intra-day support @ 1180 provided the perfect platform for the S&P to continue to move upwards (8.5 to 14 points)…

And then complete the move into Monday highs in the 2nd half of the day.

Personally, I thought there was going to be more upside on Monday, with price breaking out of the daily highs and then extending upwards on Tuesday.

However, Tuesday is still viewed as part of a continuation of the 3rd Week upward move....












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SPI Daily 15th August 2011 recap

My view is that this week will continue upwards, as part of retesting the previous breakout @ 4321

SPI Weekly and Daily range

 Early resistance of 21 points and retesting Friday’s highs…and now continuing towards Monday’s highs

As per Weekly report, there’s the expectation that the overall trend is moving upwards and retesting the previous weekly breakout @ 4321.

And, if US markets begin with a 3-day rally, then the SPI will be much higher…(#C)



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