Index Futures, Forex Reports 28th Mar 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

DOW and S&P Index Futures


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, PDN and Banking Report Update

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  • S&P (e-mini) 27 March 09 recap

    "Expectation the S&P is are going higher towards 850, but that might not happen until next week.

    Thursday UP move should have resulted in a 5-day breakout and rally towards those highs.

    Therefore even though I think US markets are going higher, there could be a 3-day sideways pattern until the first of April before the UP trend continues"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    S&P trading above the Weekly highs, with the view that price should kick up towards 850 next week.

    However, I'm still leaning towards US markets drifting lower over the next two days into the start of April before a potential last 'bit' UP move, and then my view is that global markets will reverse back down.

    Over the next two days, US markets can remain above the March 50% levels, but ideally I would like them to come down into the 5-day lows find support and then continue upwards.

    SPI Daily 27th March 2009 recap

    "SPI looking to move towards 3800, but by the look of today's open it won't be Friday.

    If the usual reversal pattern from these highs play out, then the UP move might not occur until next week.

    Resistance:- 3718 with an expectation that the pullback would be a minimum 44 points"

    Random support 3669.

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    SPI Monthly and 5-day pattern

    SPI reversed down from Friday's highs playing out precisely into 3669.

    My view is for the Market to continue upwards into the March highs, but based on this price action on Friday, there could also be a 3-day pullback or sideways pattern before the next leg upwards.

    I've updated the Weekly report (click link above) with my view of the the market in the 2nd Quarter.

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  • DOW Daily 26th March 2009 recap

    "US markets above the monthly 50% levels and expecting higher prices.

    Yesterday's early rise into the 5-day highs and reversal down into support sets up further upside moves today.

    If holding from Yesterday's lows then hold towards Thursday's highs or more.

    Trade on the side of support"
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    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    US markets continued to move upwards and follow the 5-day pattern higher.

    However, I was expecting more upside and another breakout of the 5-day pattern to push the DOW towards 8080.

    That might still happen on Friday, but it won't surprise me to see Friday simply consolidate and drift downward, before continuing higher next week.

    I've updated the Australian Index Weekly report, which will should be used as a guide for US markets.

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  • SPI Daily 26th March 2009 recap

    "Expectation of higher prices in March and expectation of higher prices today.

    If the market moves down 27 points (3612) and begins to rise upwards, then the view is for a minimum move upwards 44 points and towards 3674"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Today's Long set-up was based on where the first 27 point down move would occur, with the expectation that price would follow the 5-day pattern higher into 3674

    That 27 point down move was 3612, and that was the low for today and the move played out precisely.

    Shift in levels for tomorrow, and the view still remains that the SPI is trying to reach 3800+ in the next few days in March.

    DOW Daily 25th March 2009 recap

    "Trade on the side of Support:- Above and it's into Wednesday's highs.

    Wednesday's highs are resistance.

    Below support and there looks to be a move back down into the 10-day 50% level, which has always been my level to continue the trend higher"

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    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    There as a lot of volatility in the US on Wednesday, but in my opinion it played out precisely, setting up the new move upwards

    Rise up from support into a precise top on Wednesday. I was expecting some resistance, but I wasn't expecting the entire reversal back down to happen in 1 day.

    But once both the DOW (7503) and the S&P hit (790) on the S&P, this was the pattern that set-ups the next moves higher in March.

    SPI Daily 25th March 2009 recap

    "At this stage I still have to treat the UP trend still in play whilst price is trading above the Monthly 50% level and the 5-day 50% level.

    Until that 5-day 50% level breaks then I'm going to continue to trade on the long side.

    support 3570-73

    Target upper channels"

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    SPI Monthly and 5-day pattern

    Expectation that today would continue higher, but once again it failed to reach my precise entry around 3570.

    Once the upper channels reached @ 3634, there was an expectation that any weakness would push the market back down at least 44 points.

    At this stage there is a bias to continue higher in March, until prices start trading below the 5-day 50% levels.

    DOW Daily 24th March 2009 recap

    "DOW finally reaches the March 50% level, but both markets have closed above their 3-week highs.

    At this stage there is still an expectation of higher prices during March.

    Tuesday's highs are resistance, often price can come back and retest the 5-day break along with the 5-day 50% level and continue higher"

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    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    US markets didn't rise high enough to get into a short counter-trend move back down into Support.

    Price is still trading above the Weekly highs and above the 5-day high Breakout from Monday.

    If the trend is going to continue higher this week (higher weekly close), then around those levels should find support and move back towards the highs.

    If not, then there is a view that US markets are stalling for 2 days and moving back down into blue filter support.

    SPI Daily 24th March 2009 recap

    "We have a higher Daily open and Spiral top so I think we should get at least some short-term weakness:- approx 3651 down into 3617 would be the ideal pattern and exit.

    Therefore early trend guide is 3617 and random support around 3617.

    Below 3617 and there is an expectation that price is moving back down to retest Monday's 5-day breakout @ 3573"

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    SPI Monthly and 5-day pattern

    Expectation that market is going higher, but not everyday goes higher.

    Today I was looking for a higher open and short sell 3651.

    The trend guide for the remainder of the day was based on 3617..

    A bullish pattern would swing off support and continue higher.

    But as pointed out previously, it’s all about the closing price of the range bar.

    Once there was closure under 3617, the only expectation is that the SPI was moving back down to close Monday gap @ 3573 using a Hook and reversal pattern (didn't complete the entire move low was 3582)

    At this stage the overall market is playing the 25-30% up swing from the March lows.

    I would expect the SPI should reach the March highs by then end of this month, helped by US markets following the same pattern.

    If there is going to be a top out I would probably think that there is resistance around the March highs @ 3801-3901, but could make a slightly higher high in April.

    Once that occurs my view is for the 2nd Quarter to move back down into the April 50% level and move into a 3–month sideways patterns, using the April 50% level (2nd Quarter), as a larger timeframe support zone: consolidation.

    If the SPI fails to reach those March highs in the next 5 days of trading, then I'm still expecting a higher high in April, but it will be slightly below those upper levels shown.

    That will be pointed out next week.

    S&P (e-mini) 23rd March 09 recap

    "Monthly 50% levels resistance, & Blue filter support in the 5-day pattern

    Bias to move upwards..."

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    S&P Monthly and 5-day pattern

    US move upwards on Monday breaking the resistance levels of the Monthly 50% levels and heading towards the March-April highs.

    This pattern should continue to play out, as part of the Double Monthly bottom in the market in March and probable 25-30% up swing rotation back into the higher timeframe 50% levels

    SPI Daily 23rd March 2009 recap

    "There is a breakout of the Weekly highs last week, therefore there is an expectation that the SPI should continue higher this week.

    If that is the case then I'm going to continue to look for 'long' trades if they line up with support and a Spiral low"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI moved higher on Monday towards the highs and stalling around the 5-day tops @ 3561.

    The only problem is, it didn't move down far enough to provide the precise entry on support.

    Expectation 3561 is resistance on Monday, but the levels will shift tomorrow, and won't be valid.