SPI Daily 24th March 2009 recap

"We have a higher Daily open and Spiral top so I think we should get at least some short-term weakness:- approx 3651 down into 3617 would be the ideal pattern and exit.

Therefore early trend guide is 3617 and random support around 3617.

Below 3617 and there is an expectation that price is moving back down to retest Monday's 5-day breakout @ 3573"

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SPI Monthly and 5-day pattern

Expectation that market is going higher, but not everyday goes higher.

Today I was looking for a higher open and short sell 3651.

The trend guide for the remainder of the day was based on 3617..

A bullish pattern would swing off support and continue higher.

But as pointed out previously, it’s all about the closing price of the range bar.

Once there was closure under 3617, the only expectation is that the SPI was moving back down to close Monday gap @ 3573 using a Hook and reversal pattern (didn't complete the entire move low was 3582)

At this stage the overall market is playing the 25-30% up swing from the March lows.

I would expect the SPI should reach the March highs by then end of this month, helped by US markets following the same pattern.

If there is going to be a top out I would probably think that there is resistance around the March highs @ 3801-3901, but could make a slightly higher high in April.

Once that occurs my view is for the 2nd Quarter to move back down into the April 50% level and move into a 3–month sideways patterns, using the April 50% level (2nd Quarter), as a larger timeframe support zone: consolidation.

If the SPI fails to reach those March highs in the next 5 days of trading, then I'm still expecting a higher high in April, but it will be slightly below those upper levels shown.

That will be pointed out next week.


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