Weekly Index Reports now available (30th December 2007)
Click Weekly Reports to the right.
In 2008 I will be introducing the ‘ the Trader Stock Report’
The stock report will feature the largest stocks by market capitalisation along with their own Index. For example looking at the financial Index along with a number of Banks.
I will also take a close look at Australian stocks trading under $1.00
I will trawl forums and find out what others are talking about, and then analyse the stock using higher timeframe levels as ‘fair-value’.
I’m not interested in ‘day-trading’. I want to find stocks that are consolidating around their Quarterly or Yearly 50% levels, and then BUY and hold the stocks for a number of months.
This might take a number of weeks or even months for any move higher to eventuate, but the goal is to find stocks that could ‘double’ in price over a 6-12 month period using market dynamics, as many follow Quarterly patterns within the Yearly timeframe.
Buying as close to 'fair-value' allows traders to minimise Risk...
Happy New Year and Happy Trading in 2008
Forex GBP/USD 28th Dec 2007 prt 2
GBP reversed down from upper channel on Friday, and expectation of rotating back down is to re-test the 3-day high break and 5-day 50% level.
These levels are extremely important for any upside move next week, because a bullish currency should test and bounce off these levels, and then begin a swing back towards January 50% levels.
We can see the Shift in 'Time' and the potential downside if there is any more weakness next month based on market dynamics:- December support disappears
DOW E-mini Report 28th Dec 2007
Both Markets reversed down on Thursday breaking the 3-day lows.This week's expectation was that a price would reverse back down and re-test the Weekly 50% levels, if this is valid support zone then the next day should rise higher.
However, I also have a view that US markets would have a 'down' trading week. (lower close on Friday)
However, statistically there is a 72% chance that the day after price closing below the 3-day lows, then next day will be UP..
The DOW is trading below the Weekly 50% level, whilst the ES is above, but both are trading below the 3-day break.
Early price action is going to be dictated by the 5-day 50% level, the trend either way is going to be easily defined by this level.
Down and it will be into support zones.
Above and it can either stall at the 3-day break or continue back towards the recent highs again.
Note:- if the market pushes down early and then swings upwards, but fails the move back inside the 3-day lows, then that could set up a move down early next week.
Full Weekly report tomorrow....
SPI Trading 28th Dec part 3
10:30
Exit all longs @ 6334
The move is completing the R44 range from 6295
Rising upwards from a lower daily open after a 2-day reversal and the market can continue higher. There is nothing to suggest that the market will reverse down after the 44-point completion today.
Weekly Report:- “ A failure around the Weekly 50% level, will be part of the rotation back down after the change of 3-day cycle… I favour at least a 2-day rotation-stall before any up trend is going to occur”
There is only 1 more trading day after today, which will set-up extremely important levels for 2008. (Full Weekly report)
Beautiful day in Sydney, off to the beach….
SPI Trading 28th Dec part 2
9:55opens @ 6295 and Risk level
Long 6300 partial exit 6312
moved stops above today's lows @ 6296
Note: 5-day 50% 6310 market trading below
SPI Trading 28th Dec 2007
US markets have pushed the SPI lower overnight. This wasn't unexpected because my view favoured a lower Weekly close this week after last week's UP trend.It is obvious that the Weekly 'gap' won't close, and any failure of the Weekly 50% level 6377 will often push price back down towards the 3-day break of 6269 and also the 3-day lows (6218)
This lower open today completes the 2-day stall-reversal from the Weekly 50% level @ 6377, after the change of cycle on Friday.
Risk 6295
Monday's lows, and today's open will have lower spiral points.
I prefer to go 'long' from lower spiral points, and go 'short' from higher spirals
So my view is trade longs, this also aligns with the 5-day 50% level.
Ideally I would like to see the R44 range 'gap' close (44 points up) before any reversal down...once again looking for 22-44 point moves.
However, also respect the Weekly trend, because it can easily continue down towards the 3-day lows, which are 6218...., so I won't be trading longs below Risk today.
Note: 6251 and Quarterly 50% is a major level.
Forex GBP/USD 28th Dec 2007
Expected breakout and continuation higher into Friday.
Expected reversal back towards January 50% levels.
Long positions:- Now it depends on the type of trader you are because it determines on whether you want to hold any longs or exit the trade at this level, and that depends on how many lots you are trading.
1:- Expectation after a 3-day cycle break price can often come down and retest the level before continuting higher. Highest probable reversal zone is Friday upper blue channel. Breakout level matches the 5-day 50% level. (support)
2. A trending week will try and chase the Weekly 50% level 2.0108
I would partial exit at this level today (also 90 pip spiral top) and hold, with the expectation that Friday will continue higher.
If wanting to re-enter longs then the best level would be around the 5-day 50% level...
DOW E-mini Report 27th Dec part 2
Expected reversal back into the higher timeframe 50% levels, but Thursday continued down much further closing below all major levels that defined a 'bullish' trend.
This reversal pattern wasn't un-expected, as my view this week would be a 'down' tredning week after last week's higher close.
Even though the market has broken all levels, normally the next day would higher close (Friday)
Full report later..
DOW E-mini Report 27th Dec 2007
No change from Yesterday's Report.
Bullish Trends using timeframe analysis:- price is above Monthly and Weekly 50% levels.
3-day cycle:- BUY
Expectation of a re-test of the higher timeframe 50% levels and 3-day cycle lows during this week before any up-trend can continue.
Above blue channel highs and Weekly trend is bullish
Forex GBP/USD 27th Dec part 2
Wednesday ends and Thursday begins, drops the 5-day 50% level down and GBP heading upwards.Next level is to break the blue channel highs, and then expectation price will remain outside of these highs until Friday. (Random length Range)
Anyone long using the 5-day 50% level as entry, partial exit here and run stops below 5-day 50% level and hold into Friday if price 'breaks-out' above resistance.
SPI Trading 27th Dec part 4
12:03
partial exit 6363
last open next exit 6351 (stop breakeven from entry)
Hopefully market continues down into an R44 low, as part of the 2nd day Stalling pattern after the break above Friday....
SPI Trading 27th Dec part 3
11:08Dollar stop breakeven @ 6389 on first trade
Re-entered @ 6388, next R22 high matching system
Partial Exit 6378
Breakeven entry stops now @ 6388
If stopped out on this trade I won't trade again, and i'll go spend some money on the boxing day sales.
SPI Trading 27th Dec part 2
10:26Market moved up early today completing the 44 point range from Monday..
R44 high @ 6383
Entry 6384
Partial exit 6377
Stops moved to $dollar breakeven from entry @ 6390
Hopefully same pattern plays out today as Monday….
Market consolidating around Weekly 50% level, would have hoped that at least 22 point reversal would have occured by now...
If stopped out I will re-enter on next set-up, looking for same patterns, but the longer it remains above 6377, the more reason it has to go higher..
SPI Trading 27th Dec 2007
8:30In the weekly report I was looking for a push down from the Weekly 50% level of 6377 back into the previous break of the 3-day highs in the first part of the Week.
Normally this would occur over 2 days:- 2-day stall/reversal before the trend continues.
However, most of those up moves occur after an 87 point reversal, which occurred on Monday.
The trend for the remainder of this week is going to be defined by 6377:- above an expectation that 6468 will close. Below and market is consolidating until the end of the Week, Month, Quarter and Year:- Setting up major levels for 2008
Due to the market being shut for 2-days, I don't know where the market is going to open on Thursday, so I don't have an early bias to trade first thing today......
Forex GBP/USD 27th Dec
Expectation that GBP would find support around the December lows, and then begin the swing back upwards this week.
Lower Weekly open expectation that price would swing back towards the 3-day highs.
A reversal pattern would firstly need to see a breakout above the 3-day highs, with the expectation that price will move higher into Friday back towards the Weekly 50% levels next week.
First sign will be price trading above the 5-day 50% level and breakout above the blue channel high......
DOW E-mini Report 26th Dec 2007
Trend:- BullishTrading above Monthly and Weekly 50% level
3-day cycle BUY.
Short-term:- Expectation of a reversal back down to re-test Support (Weekly 50% levels)
Risk levels for this to happen is:-
DOW 13665
ES 1514
Above those levels and probability is that the Weekly trend will continue higher into Friday.
Failure and reversal would be a test of support. There is such a large gap to the 3-day lows, that I would look for a 2-day 'stall-reversal' pattern before any UP trend would continue.
SPI trading 24th Dec 2007 prt 3
14:00Daily reversal down from the Weekly 50% level, and back towards the break out on Friday.
Near exact move 87 points down from highs and buyers have come into the market.
Exitted last contract @6303.
Note:- It's going to be interesting where the SPI opens up on Thursday, because often a 87 point reversal in the first two days of the Week, can often set up a move upwards.
That is going to depend on US markets trading 1 more day before the Australian Market opens, but it won't surprise me to see an open above 6377 on Thursday..
Merry Christmas.....
SPI trading 24th Dec 2007 prt 2
11:422nd partial exit 6347 (r44 down from highs)
Next exit around 87 points down from today's highs to be neutral position on shorts.
Any rotation down would be to look for a rotation back into the 5-day 50% level and/or the break of the 3-day highs (6287-6269)
SPI trading 24th Dec 2007
10:43
Expectation that whilst price is trading below 6377 and the Weekly 50% level, the market is moving into a 2-day reversal back down before any uptrend resumes.
Push upwards and R11 reversal matched the Weekly 50% level.
Entry 6377
Partial exit 6362 and moved stops at 6381.
Note: Previous R87 high 6359, and previous R44 high is 6360...
Around these levels can often provide support during the trading day...
Ideally I would like to see a 44 point reversal, and then continue down on Thursday back into the 3-day breakout @ 6269
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