Index Futures & Stock Reports 31 OCT 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update




Posted by

S&P (e-mini ) 30th October 09 recap

"Thursday isn’t a concern in a downtrend just yet, because often price can have a higher daily close and then continue down into a lower Weekly close on Friday after retesting the 50% levels.

I've seen these patterns before, where there is a 1-day UP in the down trend and then the trend continues in the direction on Friday.

In the case of the S&P 500 down"

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S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

As I mentioned yesterday, Thursday's UP day wasn't a concern, as I've seen these patterns before.

Friday:-Higher Daily open using resistance levels (weekly) with the expectation that price would continue down into a lower Friday close and follow the original Weekly direction.

Yesterday closed above the 5-day 50% level, but Friday opened below forming a thrust pattern into the lower Friday close.

The only thing I'm not happy about this week's trading, was it didn't go down more:- Tuesday should have crashed and be trading below the 3-week lows.


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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 30 October 2009 recap

    Based on the 5-day patterns, if the SPI doesn't open above 4668 then Friday can remain range bound and trading around these levels for most of the day.

    Critical level today is 4668-70 (5-day 50%)

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Lower open and the expectation that price would rise upwards and complete the R42 range high @ 4670

    However, once that was reached it became a random pattern on whether price would continue towards the Weekly 50% levels or remain flat and consolidate below the 5-day 50% levels on Friday.

    The Australian market has closed above the 3-week lows and will begin November around the 50% levels (SET UP B).

    Where it will open next week will now depend on the direction the S&P 500 takes on Friday (still below the Weekly 50% levels)







    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 29th October 09 recap

    "S&P is price now being supported around the single monthly balance point and the Yearly 50% level @ 1038, so there is a potential swing into the 5-day 50% level @ 1057"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    S&P has followed a higher timeframe support level @ 1038 and a swing back towards the Weekly 50% levels

    These Weekly 50% levels are the trend guides for the rest of this week.

    It wasn’t the pattern that I wanted on Thursday, as I was looking for the market to complete the move into Thursday’s lows, which matched the 3- Week lows around support zones.

    I’ve been bearish all this week and this UP move on Thursday isn’t a concern in a downtrend just yet, because often price can have a higher daily close and then continue down into a lower Weekly close on Friday after retesting the 50% levels

    However, the concern for any downtrend is, price shouldn’t be trading above the 5-day 50% level, as a Weekly down trend will retest the 5-day 50% level and then continue down the same day or the next.

    And if Thursday midnight closes above the Weekly 50% level, then there is a potential higher weekly close back around the 3-day cycle highs @ 1088

    Not good for short-term bears, as price is rising up from the Yearly 50% level and still above the monthly 50% levels - SET-UP B

    And also not good for swing traders, as I had ideal long swings trades from lower prices next week.







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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 29 October 2009 recap

    "SPI completes the move down into the 3-week lows, but it's too early to be looking for longs from this level until this week completes (Friday)

    There are 5-day breakouts in US markets so there is an expectation that the trend will continue down.

    Today:- At this stage the SPI is trading around support zones but below Thursday's 5-day lows (mixed patterns)

    Resistance spiral filter @ 4615"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI completes the move down into the 3-week lows, and there is still an expectation of lower prices towards 4398 by Saturday.

    These 3-week levels are robust support zones in up trends, but not so much when 3-month cycles end, as I’m expecting these levels to fail and continue down towards the monthly 50% levels.

    This should also be helped by 5-day breaks in US markets on Wednesday and price trading below the 5-day lows in the SPI on Thursday @ 4607

    Today:-

    Early rise into resistance levels @ 4615, and then confirmed with R21 spiral stops below 4607 to trade the R42 completion down into 4576 and the 3-Week cycle lows.

    At the start of October if you recall, my expectation was a short term pullback into the 3-week lows for support and for a move upwards in October to complete the 3-month cycle tops as part of the breakout pattern from July and into October.


    This played out precisely.

    Once the 3-monthly cycle was completed (October highs), these 3-week lows are first target pullback zones, with SET-UP A favouring a move back down into the monthly 50% levels by Saturday/ Monday.

    Doesn’t leave much room for another 200 point fall with 1 1/2 days remaining until the end of the month, but it can happen.


    Posted by

    DOW S&P Daily 28th October 2009 recap

    "I was very surprised by Tuesday's trading in the US, as I expected Tuesday to be trending down and to already be around the weekly lows on Wednesday

    DOW still trading above the Weekly 50% level, but the 'no control' daily bar can easily continue down.

    S&P below the weekly 50% level, should hopefully continue down"

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    DOW and S&P Weekly

    US markets continue with the last week reversal down, however much more orderly than I expected, especially in the DOW

    S&P 500 is back into the Yearly 50% level @ 1038, so this level is a critical this week, even though I'm expecting lower prices by Friday.



    Posted by

    SPI Daily 28 October 2009 recap

    "SPI trading below the Weekly 50% level and with the expectation price is moving down into the 3-week lows

    We have a break and extend pattern from Tuesday down into Wednesday's low (resistance 4764)

    Random support 4728 (spiral low)"




    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI opens below the Weekly 50% level, and there is a breakout of Tuesday’s lows @ 4794 so there is an expectation that Wednesday will continue down into the lows:- break and extend pattern.

    first sign of the reversal pattern was yesterday's 5-day breakout, and 2nd sign was the confirmation of price below the weekly 50% level (Today)

    There was a spiral filter level @ 4728, and often those spiral lows can provide a swing zone for a rotation upwards 42 points and then continue down overnight.

    However, there are certain weeks in every 3-month cycle that the market will trend and not intra-day swing, and this week is one of those:- last week reversal pattern back towards the monthly 50% level following the line of least resistance in the higher timeframes.

    October high reversal pattern and break of the Weekly 50% levels



    SPI Monthly and Weekly

    SPI continues with the reversal down after completing the 3-month cycle breakout pattern from July into October.

    I expected more weakness in US markets on Tuesday, and for the SPI to already be trading around the 3-week lows by Wednesday and heading lower by Friday.

    Hopefully the S&P continues down and provides the trending pattern that I expected yesterday, and not remain inside the 5-day range and more rotation until November.

    I want price to drop as far as possible this week so the volatility comes back into the market and provides more ideal swing trading.









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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 27th October 09 recap

    There are two patterns as part of SET-UP A

    1. Monday’s 5-day low breakout and Tuesday will struggle to move higher than (1068) today resulting in another breakout on Tuesday and a large trending down day.

    2. Monday pushes down into Tuesday’s lows resulting in a swing up into the Wednesday’s 50% level and the trend continuing down on Wednesday

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    S&P moved down and followed option 2....

    However, I really expected option 1 and a large trending down day on Tuesday towards the 3-week lows.

    This can still happen on Wednesday, as price looks to be closing below the Weekly 50% levels...

    but that will depend on Wednesday's intra-day support pattern and resistance level.

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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 27 October 2009 recap

    "We have a SET-UP A unfolding in the US markets & how that translates in the SPI on Tuesday will be based on the 5-day lows and the Weekly 50% level.

    lower open (below 4794) the SPI should move down 42 points and then consolidate for the rest of the day, being supported around the Weekly 50% level, and then continuing down during sycom. (if US markets continue down)"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Open outside the 5-day lows and expectation price is breaking out and extending downward. How far it goes down will depend on US markets on Tuesday.

    Today played out as I though it would, lower open and down 42 points (4751)

    Because price was trading near the Weekly 50% levels, I though those levels along with the r42 range spiral low would form a robust support zone during the day session.

    Now it’s into the night session ,and see whether US markets follow SET-UP B and Weekly 50% level support…

    Or SET-UP A:- Tuesday trending down into the 3-week lows.(hopefully)



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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 26th October 09 recap

    SET-UP A: - reversal down occurs in the last week of the current month as price goes looking for the monthly 50% levels

    This often happens on Tuesday after Monday initially moves down into the Weekly 50% level and finds support, and then Tuesday breaks support and trends down (large trending day)

    Monday:- price normally will try and rise upwards, therefore it won’t surprise me to see a Spike upwards on Monday using Yellow Support in both markets

    DOW spike and resistance 10021
    ES spike and resistance 1086.

    If there is a spike upwards and then price should continue down and into Monday’s 5-day lows, then I would suggest holding positions open because Tuesday might surprise a few people.

    Depending on how many contracts traded:- partial exit the 5-day lows on Monday.

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Everything on Monday has played out precisely, from the rise upwards on Monday and the ‘spike’ into upper resistance levels in both the DOW and S&P, and both markets have reversed down into the Weekly 50% level closing on the lows.

    If US markets are going to follow SET-UP B, as per the Weekly report, then Tuesday will swing upwards off these lows and close back above the 5-day 50% level.

    However, we aren’t trading SET-UP B, we are trading SET-UP A, and traders should have partial exited around Monday’s low and or the Weekly 50% level and hold…

    Because Tuesday might surprise a few people?

    Well if it follows SET-UP A, Tuesday’s trending down day will be back around the 3-week lows on the same day and could even be lower by Wednesday.









    Posted by

    SPI Daily 26 October 2009 recap

    "Two possible patterns today

    1. opens below the 5-day 50% level @ 4834 and the bias is to move down into 4815
    Around 4815 and the SPI continues down and follows the 5-day pattern lower into Monday’s lows @ 4781 and down towards the Weekly 50% levels.

    2. Completes the move down into 4816, but doesn't move down, and once again price moves into another sideways trading day with price consolidating below resistance @ 4852 (R42 high)"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI followed option two, moved down into support @ 4815 and then rotated upwards.


    Rising up from support @ 4815 and closing Friday’s gap with a R42-44 high and resistance @ 4852.

    The rest of Monday remained range bound closing around the 5-day 50% level @ 4834





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