SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern
SPI opened lower on Support and continued higher into 3503, as part of the higher Weekly close.
There is now an expectation that markets can unwind and continue down towards the February lows.
Even though the SPI isn't near the February 50% level, which would provide the most robust reversal down, the Weekly 50% level can easily do the same thing early next week.
That will also depend on US markets on Friday, and the direction they take.
Do US markets follow the same pattern and close higher on Friday, as part of the higher weekly close....
or do they break support and continue down on Friday....
Weekly Report tomorrow
S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern
I wasn't factoring in a Down day on Thursday because of the price action over the previous 3 days, but once Support couldn't hold the same pattern of a 2-day pullback is taking place.
This week's view was for a higher Friday close (random length), but then look for next week to continue the trend down towards February's lows.
It looks like the reversal pattern downward has begun with Thursday's break.
SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern
Today started with the higher open selling off from 3426 moving down into
44-point lows. Whilst price was below 3409 the expectation was a continuation down into 3335.
Except the market reversed off its 44 point lows and HOOKed back above 3409.
I was looking for a retest of 3409 for a move towards the highs, except
the HOOK pattern didn't pan out. That pattern would have provided
the perfect long set-up:- text book pattern.
But once price started to trade above 3426 (previous Weekly lows),
these levels became support :- confirmed with intra-day spiral lows rising
upwards into the Weekly 50% level.
We can also see the higher Weekly lows in the forward Weekly timeframe, this goes back to my view of this week rising upwards after 3 weeks of down trends.
Whenever there are higher or lower timeframe channels in the forward timeframes (Dilernia Drops), the bias is for the trend to continue in the same direction
into Friday.
However, any continuation upwards this week has to be helped by the US markets following the same pattern.
Because at this stage price has simply moved back into the Weekly 50% levels, which often occurs at the start of the new Weekly timeframe.
S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern
I was looking for an UP day on Tuesday, but the S&P didn't reach the ideal support zone.
I was also expecting a move to test Tuesday's highs which matched the Weekly 50% level, instead Tuesday ended up quiet flat.
There is still a posibility that this Week can continue higher, but at this stage I'm treating US markets as simply rotating back into the Weekly 50% level in the first 2 days, and could come under pressure at the end of this week if it breaks the support on Wednesday.
S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern
S&P rising up from support on Monday & moving back towards the Weekly 50% level at the start the new week.
I didn't have a probability pattern for Monday's, other than using the levels in the 5-day pattern, but I was surprised by the strength shown in the S&P.
Monday's highs formed resistance, resulting in sellers appearing around the highs.
The Weekly 50% level is still the trend guide for the last week of January.
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