Index Futures & Stock Reports 5 Dec 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update





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    • Posted by

    DOW Futures Daily 4 Dec 2009 recap

    Two patterns on Friday….

    "Blue channels resistance for a move down into Friday's lows, and these lows match the Weekly 50% level, with the potential to close around the 5-day 50% level.

    Above the blue channel and price will move into Friday’s highs…

    A ‘spike’ upwards on Friday and I’ll get bearish, as I would look for a 2-day reversal down from next week"

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    DOW futures and 5-day pattern.

    At the start of the trading day I was bearish because price was opening below the 5-day 50% level and 10387, with an expectation that price would push down into Friday’s lows.

    Based on a probability pattern I wasn’t expecting a move upwards on Friday, but I acknowledged that if there was a 'Spike' into the highs on Friday, this will more often than not continue down at the start of next week into Support levels.

    I do have a view of higher prices in December, as part of a 2-month wave pattern upwards during this 3-month cycle, and that could occur using next week’s 50% level as support.

    However, at the start of next week I’m leaning towards a continuation down into Support levels, as part of Friday’s spike & resistance pattern (2-day reversal)

    If 'Support' doesn’t break on Tuesday (Wednesday trading below) then I would have to favour a higher weekly close thereafter.

    Confirmed with a Daily ‘HOOK’ pattern back above the Weekly 50% level and a continuation towards the December highs.

        Posted by

        SPI Daily 4th December 2009 recap

        "As pointed out previously, after a change of the 3-day cycle price can move into a 2-day reversal pattern back down into higher timeframe support levels"

        Downside would be 42 points, with a potential move and another 42 points towards higher timeframe 50% levels.

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        SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern.

        With today’s open below 4751 the expectation was that price would try and move down 42 points.

        This was also part of a 2-day reversal pattern after a change of the 3-day cycle on Wednesday, and any further moves down would be towards the higher timeframe 50% levels (December)

        Depending on the price action in US markets on Friday, I still have the view that markets will have one last push upwards next week and then probably top out for 2009.

        Of course things change next week if price opens below the December 50% levels, but I don’t have a high probability ‘short’ set-up in the larger cycles to pre-empt a major reversal Patten at this stage during this 3-month cycle.

        Only a short-term 2- day reversal during this Weekly cycle.





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        • Posted by

        DOW Futures Daily 3rd Dec 2009 recap

        "Either price continues towards the December highs, or Thursday is part of a 2-day reversal pattern using the Weekly highs are resistance.

        Yesterday's first day reversal had no follow through on the downside

        Trade the levels as shown in the 5-day pattern"

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        DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

        Weekly highs resistance and reversal pattern confirmed with price trading below 10459 (yellow)

        Initial reversal target is the 5-day 50% level @ 10360.

        As often seen, ‘no control’ daily bars (circled) can often lead into daily reversal bars the following day, which was part of a 2nd day reversal after a change in the 3-day cycle.

        Confirmed with a cross-over of the Yellow filter back down into the 5-day 50% level, which matches the original 3-day high breakout.


        Posted by

        SPI Daily 3rd December 2009 recap

        "Today's trading is about whether the SPI continues with an upward bias in December, or moves in a reversal pattern back down into support levels.

        Whenever there's a lower spiral point (R42 low) it is often hard to 'short' trade because price will normally will try and rise upwards.

        Because the R42 is still trading in Wednesday's range, to move into Thursday's range the R42 range needs to complete. That means that Wednesday's levels are still used as resistance on Thursday"

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        SPI Weekly and 5-day

        Small range day trading above the 3-day high @ 4761 and below Wednesday's resistance levels.

        My gut feeling was that Wednesday's highs were going to stall price and Thursday would actually have a reversal day down into 4722.

        Instead the reversal day ended up a 'stalling' day above the breakout @ 4761

        For the market to continue higher, the R42 range had to complete @ 4802, which in theory would have been a breakout of the 5-day high from Wednesday that would normally have continued higher and another 42 points into Thursday's highs.

        Sadly Thursday ended up neither, not down into 4722 or up into 4840


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        • Posted by

        S&P (e-mini ) 2nd Dec 09 recap

        "There isn't a breakout above Tuesday highs to confirm higher prices on Wednesday.

        And these current Weekly highs @ 1112 can resist price and push the market back down into a consolidation pattern:- 2-day reversal

        Therefore this might result in Wednesday's higher open (weekly highs) and continue down into the 5-day 50% levels, as these levels are first support zones on Wednesday"        .




        S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

        Resistance around the Weekly highs on Wednesday but without the follow through and continuation down into the support levels in the 5-day range.

        Wednesday becomes the first day reversal pattern, and while price is below the Weekly highs Thursday should be part of a 2nd day reversal (random length)

        Keeping in mind that there is an expectation that price is still trying to move towards 1126 in December.






        Posted by

        SPI Daily 2nd December 2009 recap

        "At this stage I'm treating Wednesday as a consolidating trading day that's going to close above 4761...

        but hopefully with some early selling pressure down using Wednesday’s highs as resistance:- 4791-803

        Downside 42 points into 4764"

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        SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

        Early rise up into Wednesday's highs and a reversal back down 42 points, closing above 4761.

        Today is the first day in a number of weeks that the SPI is above the 3-day cycle highs (4761), with a view that price can continue towards the December highs later this month.

        However, based on the 5-day highs Wednesday my expectation was a range bound day to close above the 3-day highs @ 4761

        What might happen now with today’s close above 4761 and the change of the 3-day cycle into a BUY is either price is going to continue higher on the back of US markets rising towards the December highs...

        or Price is going reverse back down into the monthly 50% levels once again.

        Whenever there's a change in the 3-day cycle, price can often move into a 2-day reversal pattern back down to retest support levels and then continue upwards in a new 3-day BUY cycle thereafter.

        A 2-day reversal is back down into the December 50% levels over the next 2-days (or even lower depending on the price action in the US markets.

        It’s obvious that the SPI is going to be influenced at this stage by the direction the S&P 500 takes:- read S&P (e-mini report below)

        S&P direction:- 2-day reversal or continuation towards 1126






        Posted by

        S&P (e-mini ) 1st Dec 09 recap

        "Start of December and the bias is to continue towards the December highs @ 1126

        This could happen from today and move upwards over the next 3-days....

        Whilst above the blue channel @ 1094 it’s up in the S&P 500"

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        S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

        After last week’s reversal into the Weekly 50% level on Friday the bias was to continue higher in December with a target @ 1126

        This was based on the 4th Quarter target from October, that now has a matching monthly target in December at the same level.

        Today’s trading had a bias to move upwards and back into the Weekly highs.

        These highs @ 1112 will either resist price and push the market back down into a consolidation pattern until the end of the week....

        Or continue with a ‘3-day UP move’ and complete the target @ 1126 this week.


        Posted by

        SPI Daily 1st December 2009 recap



        SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

        First day of the new month and price is starting above the monthly 50% levels in December with the bias to continue higher.

        With the levels in the 5-day range providing support @ 4685, but not much follow through on a continued up move towards 4748 (R42 points up @ 4727)

        Another small range day.

        Even though I have an upward bias, this sideways pattern around the December 50% levels could last until friday.

        Firstly we need to see a daily close above the 3-day high cycle to change the cycle into a 'BUY'







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        • Posted by

        S&P (e-mini ) 30 Nov 09 recap

        "After last Fridays retest of the Weekly 50% level and Monday opening above the 3- Week 50% level (Green)….

        There is a bias to continue towards the December highs

        Trend guide 1096

        Sunday's Yellow support levels @ 1086 are the trend guides if there is any downside on Monday"


        S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

        Monday ends up consolidating around the November highs on the last trading day of the month.

        With these levels disappearing and moving higher in December, the expectation is that the S&P will try and make its way towards 1126, which is based on my 4th Quarter target and matching monthly high.






        Posted by

        SPI Daily 30th November 2009 recap

        "Even though there is a view that price can continue higher in December, whenever Monday opens below the Weekly 50% level my view is that price will continue with a downward bias.

        At this stage the trading range is :- 4662 (resistance)

        target 4602 and consolidation (random support)

        If the SPI opens above 4650, then the bias is to follow the 3-day cycle highs towards 4724+"

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        SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

        After last week’s support around the November 50% level and the price action in the US markets, there is a bias to continue upwards in early December.

        Because Monday was opening below the Weekly 50% level @ 4950, my view was for the Weekly 50% level to form a resistance zone and push the SPI back down into 4602 and Monday to remain consolidating until the next day when December begins.

        However, once price started to trade above 4662, the market was moving back towards the 3-day cycle highs @ 4724.

        Late selling into the close, should have the SPI openning around the December 50% levels on Tuesday.



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