Weekly and 5-day pattern The price movements remind me of the Euro.
A drift down on Thursday into the 5-day 50% level and rising up from the new monthly balance points.
The Euro is rising up into early trading , whether it continues higher or how high it goes, but I would feel that he price of oil is the same and moving towards the 5-day highs.
As long as support holds
S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern
S&P Reached its Weekly highs with Thursday's UP move after Wednesday closed above the highs:- break and extend.
Thursday's reversal down and lower daily close helps set-up a lower Friday close, with the pullback target 843 in the short-term
However, that down move on Friday will depend a lot on the 5-day 50% level, which is currently supporting today's lows @ 864.
SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern
Last day of the Month and the SPI consolidates between the 5-day channel support @ 3752 and the 5-day highs @ 3794-97.
After a frustrating morning of trying to short the market and being stopped out there were a couple of trades that finally went in my favour around the highs and pullback into support.
I wasn't interested in BUYing Support today, all I was interested in Selling the market down into Support, and taking small chunks out of today's range.
Once price hit the 5-day highs in late trading that was a bonus short trade.
In conclusion:-
Last day of the Month, and it's probably higher than I expected the Market would finish.
Since the April highs have reached 3852, the Monthly level @ 3778 has
been playing a major resistance zone, but it's not going lower if US markets continue to creep upwards.
As we can see the shift in TIME, and all levels dynamically move foreward,
so what is resistance in the month of April is less likely in MAY.
Tomorrow's Monthly balance point @ 3725 is my trend guide for MAY. I'm
still expecting a retest of the MAY 50% levels, but if itis not below 3725
then at this stage the market is going higher.
The only chance of a Friday sell down this week is, if the SPI opens
below that Monthly balance point tomorrow, and at this stage that's
wishful thinking if US markets don't have downside follow through
after Wednesday's highs.
DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern
SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern
SPI opened lower than 3716 resulting in 3703 becoming my trend guide (resistance) for Wednesday, which was enough to make some profits on the way down and miminise risk above.
I wasn't interested in trading longs today, simply because I didn't have any support to use in the 5-day pattern, and my view is for the Market to move down.
DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern
US markets continue to remain in a consolidated trading pattern, and at this stage I still favour a lower Friday close unless there is a breakout of the 5-day highs and a push towards the Weekly highs.
Tuesday ended up rising up from support:- lower open but didn't move far enough to take any intra-day short positions around Tuesday's highs, as per morning report
S&P Monthly and Weekly
US markets continue to push higher and aren’t trading anywhere
near Resistance (April Highs) compared to the Aussie market reversing
down from the April highs @ 3852 looking to move back towards the
MAY 50% level.
I mentioned this a few of weeks ago in the Weekly report
"Rising Weekly ranges but shorter in length and coming
into the last week of this Month.....especially if there is any break of the 5-day lows...."
This week is the last week of the month and there isn’t anything to
suggest that there is going to be a sell off.
In the Chart on the Left we can see the Weekly bars continue to
close higher on Fridays and trading above the Monthly 50% level.
In the chart of the right we can see price remains supported above
keys levels:- Weekly 50% levels.
But what do we notice?
I developed a pattern that alerts traders to a change or loss of
momentum when price isn’t trading near resistance; it’s called ‘DROPS’
This is where the Weekly highs suddenly drop below previous weeks
where they are constantly making higher highs.
I've highlighted Weekly Drop and Monthly Drop patterns previously, which often see a
reversal of the Timeframe 'BAR' closing in the opposite direction of the current trend.
This currently alerts me to a probability pattern that doesn’t favour a higher
Friday close this week, but a lower Friday close: - Random length.
It just basically says…. if you are in a winning ‘short’ position and it’s going
in your favour, then there no reason to cover positions until the close of Friday.
That just could mean a lower Friday close, which could see prices
rise upwards once again from next Week:- lower Weekly open and new
Month starting from MAY 50% level:- Support and continuation upwards.
Or it could result in a lower Monthly close below support:- bearish.
SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern
Very cheeky on the SPI today, early morning set-up played out with the push down from the 5-day 50% level @ 3724 into 3706 resulting in price below 3711-13.
My entire view was based on this level to continue into the 5-day lows, as part of the reversal pattern towards the MAY 50% level.
Instead price move up from 3706 and moved back towards the highs.
The HOOK pattern didn't play out until late in the trading day, with the closure below and rejection pattern down from 3711-13 towards the 44 point down move and 5-day lows.
S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern
Supprt didn't break on Monday, instead resulting in a consolidating trading day on Monday.
S&P and US markets remain supported above key levels, but those Weekly 'drops' appearing (lower Weekly highs) this week is normally a sign that there is probability of a lower Friday close this week compared to higher Friday closes that have been occuring over the past number of weeks
But it won't happen unless support breaks.
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