Index Futures & Stock Reports 19 SEPT 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

DOW and S&P Index Futures


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update

S&P (e-mini ) 18th September 09 recap

"These Weekly highs are seen as resistance

At this stage price is range bound between both Weekly highs (brown and Green), and because of this pattern I don't have a probability pattern on Friday"

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

Expected small range day on Friday between both the Weekly levels.

There was an expected breakout on Wednesday to complete the September high move @ 1062, this resulted in a breakout and extend pattern in the 5-day range into Thursday's highs (resistance).

Friday simply drfited back down to retest the breakout and verify support.

SPI Daily 18th September 2009 recap

"Because US markets stalled at their Thursday highs and our market closed below 4716 on Thursday, this now sets up a possible move back down into the 5-day 50% level @ 4657, which matches my original view from yesterday"

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SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Yesterday's price action saw the SPI move up into higher prices but closed below 4716

Because of this pattern the view was to move down towards 4676 once price started to trade below the Spiral support @4703

As pointed out in the daily report:- potential short squeze after 3pm towards 4704..

Once that completed the trend continued lower towards 4657.

DOW Futures Daily 17th Sept 2009 recap

"As per Tuesday's report, the resistance levels are the weekly highs @9797

Because of the 5-day high breakout on Wednesday I would look for a move higher on Thursday,

However, based on the 5-day pattern my expectation is that Thursday will remain range bound between support levels and Thursday's highs"

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DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

Expected UP move on Wednesday resulted in a break and extend pattern on Thursday.

Precise highs were 9797 (resistance), which were both matched with the 5-day high pattern and the Weekly high pattern, resulting in drift back down and range bound.

SPI Daily 17th September 2009 recap

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Yesterday completed the move into the September highs, but there was an expectation of higher prices because of 2 patterns...

1. US markets were still rising up into their own highs

2. there was a breakout of the 5-day high yesterday @ 4633 with an expectation that the break will extend into the next highs on Thursday.

Today opened above the Thursday highs @ 4716

If below 4716 I was looking for a R42 reversal down as part of a retest of the breakout and down into 4656...

However, the SPI remained consolidating above this level....

And with the potential to continue higher on Friday , if US markets follow.

S&P (e-mini ) 16th September 09 recap

"US markets are continuing higher this week and following the Weekly 50% level rise up towards the September highs.

Resistance on Tuesday's highs, and most likely to continue higher on Wednesday.

No probability that Wednesday’s highs will stop price rising into 1062"

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

This week's move towards the September highs @ 1062 has played out after the bounce off the Weekly 50% levels on Monday.

Wednesday was expected to continue higher and comnplete the move @ 1062, and because of the breakout in the 5-day range @ 1054, the trend is expected to continue higher on Thursday.

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  • SPI Daily 16th September 2009 recap

    "SPI has completed the 2-day stall pattern and now I favour a move up towards the September highs @ 4656.

    Above 4588 and there is an expectation of a R42 rise, and a continuation towards the 5-day highs @ 4633, and a view of a move into 4656"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Today was set up nicely with the 2-day stall pattern on Monday and Tuesday, and expected UP move from Wednesday with the break of 4588 and rally into the 5-day highs @ 4633

    The expected move into September's highs playout out @4656, but with Wednesday's breakout, I would expect higher prices:- break and extend pattern on Thursday

    SPI monthly

    3rd Quarter pattern from July’s Thrust pattern has completed @ 4664.

    My preferred pattern was SET-UP A:- resistance @ the Yearly 50% level @ 4455 and move down into support levels and trade higher from the 4th Quarter.

    However, SET-UP B played out, when the Weekly timeframe closed above the August highs @ 4313, setting up another breakout and extend pattern towards September’s highs @ 4656

    US markets still short of their September levels, and a 5-day high Breakout on Wednesday should see higher prices in the short-term.

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  • S&P (e-mini ) 15th September 09 recap

    "Both markets rising up from the Weekly 50% level support with an upside move towards the Weekly highs and September highs.

    Trade on the side of the 5-day 50% levels.

    Random resistance the 5-day highs on Tuesday"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Trend rising this week after testing Weekly 50% level support for a move towards the Weekly highs and September highs @ 1062

    Tuesday's highs random resistance but these levels will shift higher on Wednesday.

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  • SPI Daily 15th September 2009 recap

    I'm still going to treat today as part of a 2-day stall pattern, from a higher Weekly open.

    Resistance 4606

    Trend guide 4560

    Below 4560 and it is part of the 2-day stall pattern"

    SPI Weekly and Spiral filter Primary Range

    The first two days were viewed as a 'stalling pattern' from this week's higher Weekly open.

    SPI opened above 4560 so there was an initial view that price could move up into resistance levels @ 4606 before reversing down.

    However once price moved below 4560 the bias was to move down.

    I would have liked more weakness on the 2nd day to fulfil some support levels before any potential UP trend towards the September highs plays out...

    But that will now depend on the price action in the US after the S&P rose up from their own Weekly 50% level support levels.

    S&P (e-mini ) 14th September 09 recap

    "Last week’s rally into the Weekly highs, and there was an expectation that price would end up back down into the Weekly 50% level.

    This week's set-up is a higher Weekly open and a 2-day reversal pattern, and that Reversal pattern is already around Weekly support levels on Monday

    5-day 50% level trend guide..."

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Expectation from last week was a rally into the Weekly highs and a pullback into support.

    Sunday's trading sent US markets down opening on the Weekly 50% level support, and now heading towards the Weekly highs, and by the look of it towards the September highs

    SPI Daily 14th September 2009 recap

    "Friday high sprial fitler @ 4621, and at this stage there is an expectation of
    that there is a 2-day reversal pattern occurring, with the first target 4561,
    and below that back into the 50% level @ 4488, as per Weekly report"

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    SPI Weekly and Primary Range filter

    Higher Weekly open and there is an expectation that price is moving in a 2-day reversal pattern into the 50% levels.

    If the market is going to follow the September pattern upwards then 4488 should hold and then look for longs set-ups from Wednesday, helped by US market set-ups.

    Otherwise a 2-day reversal and close below 4488 normally continues down.

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