Index Futures & Stock Reports 24 OCT 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update






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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 23rd October 09 recap

    "Friday’s preferred set-up is October highs resistance and a lower Friday close.

    And I would never discount Friday moving into a lower Friday close that actually ends up near the Weekly 50% level on the same day.


    S&P is in a 3-day SELL cycle and trend can continue down from Thursday's highs"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern.

    US markets reversed down on Friday and into a lower Friday close, but I expected more selling today with price to be trading or closing around the Weekly 50% level.

    The 3-day sell cycle and higher Friday open normally favours a lower Weekly close as price is trading around monthly high resistance levels.

    I only finished writing a section in my new book “ TIME, PRICE, SUPPORT, RESISTANCE, and reversal patterns after the completion of the 3-month cycles…

    Each reversal down started from this exact same pattern:- higher Thursday close and Friday sell off.

    And the trend continues down early next week with a break of the Weekly 50% level and a short-term mini collapse down into the Monthly 50% levels (SET-UP A)

    Except this time the exact same pattern hasn't occurred as previously with the follow through down into the weekly 50% level not occurring

    However, next week's 50% level is the one to watch with the potential SET-UP A in play.

    Normally the break occurs in the first two days of the new week, so i'll have a
    fair idea whether SET-UP A is going to occur, or price continues to consolidate and remain with SET-UP B.




    Posted by

    SPI Daily 23 October 2009 recap

    "Price is above the channel highs on Friday @ 4847, and the bias is to continue towards Fridays' highs (4884)

    Whilst above 4855, the expectation price is moving up towards the first R21 range @ 4874.

    Around this level becomes tricky, because the SPI might move into another consolidation pattern until afternoon trading."

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Friday was the first day to open above the 5-day filters so the expectation was to continue towards the Friday highs @ 4884.

    However, as pointed out in the morning report, the initial move was towards 4874, and once that completed, either the SPI was going to consolidate (higher daily small range day), or continue with the 5-day pattern towards 4884.

    SPI choose to do the latter and remain in a tight range day and drift down towards support @ 4847


    Same patterns in the US markets with intra-day swing trading within the 5-day patterns.

    Today being Friday there are 3 options based on the Weekly close

    1. Friday closes higher
    2. Friday closes in the middle of the 5-day range
    3. Friday continues to rotate and moves down into a lower Friday close.

    Because the markets are already trading around October resistance levels I would prefer to trade options 2 & 3 rather than 1.







    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 22 October 09 recap

    "At this stage I'm still treating US markets as range bound within the 5-day patterns, and even though October highs are seen as resistance, I'm not factoring a major reversal down this week.

    I would have to treat US markets heading down into Thursday's lows.

    Around Thursday's lows is a random support pattern, that could swing price into a higher daily close"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern.

    S&P continues to rotate within the 5-day range.

    There was early resistance, but sadly price didn’t move down far enough on Thursday to get the ideal swing set-up for the higher daily close.

    US markets should continue into higher prices on Friday.






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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 22 October 2009 recap

    Support @ 4811

    Below support and it's a rotation down into the 3-day and Weekly 50% levels (4759-72).

    Above support and it's more rotation and small range trading (resistance 4848)

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    All global markets are trading around their October highs (Weekly charts), and these are seen as resistance levels.

    This week’s view has been to trade the 5-day patterns, as price is range bound between the Weekly 50% level and Weekly highs.

    With today’s open below support @ 4811, the initial expectation was that price was moving down into the Weekly 50% levels.

    Once price moved above support, the expectation changed with a R42-44 point rising into 4848 and resistance, and another rotation and small range day.

    Unless US markets continue down on Thursday and break their Weekly 50% level, I'm expecting that same tight range trading within the 5-day pattern until the end of this week.



    SPI monthly and 5-day pattern

    Not much going on in the markets, as price consolidates around the October highs, and probably will continue to do so until November.

    As per Weekly report…

    “Next Week is simply a view of price being range bound, and any moves during the week will be based on using the support or resistance levels within the 5-day pattern”.








    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 21 October 09 recap

    "Until the end of this week traders should concentrate on the short-term moves in the 5-day pattern.

    Wednesday is simply about trading on the side of the 5-day 50% level.

    After yesterday’s reversal down into Yellow support, I would favor an UP day"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Early support on Wednesday with the same upside pattern into Wednesday’s highs.

    Expectation of Wednesday’s highs to be a random resistance zone, and a move back into the 5-day 50% level was all that I expected, but I didn’t model a move all the way back down into the 5-day lows on the same day.

    At this stage Wednesday has found support around the 5-day lows, that can see more intra-day rotation this week until Friday.

    However, below the 5-day 50% level on Thursday has the potential to push down into the Weekly 50% level.

    As per Weekly report, global markets are trading around resistance zones (October highs)




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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 21 October 2009 recap

    "At this stage I'm treating the SPI as another small range day, focusing on taking quick profits 10-20 points.

    Trend guide 4839

    Support 4812-16
    Resistance 4863"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern.

    No probability on direction today, it was simply a case of trading as close to the levels in the market and trying to take 10-20 point moves.

    I expected a small range day, with early resistance around 4839 (50% level) and a push down 21 points into support, and then some form of buying back towards the highs.

    Instead 4839 resisted price but didn’t fulfil my early expectation of a move down into support, and then a late spike upwards after 3pm tried to continue towards 4863.

    One thing I was right about, I did expect a small range day and the best focus was 10points either side of 4839.





    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 20th October 09 recap

    Two patterns on Tuesday:- Tuesday highs random resistance.

    If Tuesday moves up into the highs early then I favour a push back down into the 5-day 50% levels.

    If Tuesday moves down into the 5-day 50% levels, then these levels are support zones for a push towards the Tuesday highs.

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day 50% level.

    Early push down into the 5-day 50% level saw buying towards the highs on Tuesday.

    Around the highs saw a move back down into the 5-day 50% level and then down into the support levels and more 5-day pattern rotation.

    This will probably continue until the end of the week, with a bias to complete the October and Weekly highs.


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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 20th October 2009 recap

    "Based on the 5-day channels, the closer it opens towards 4845 the expectation is price is rising towards 4873.

    Once it gets to 4873, it becomes a random pattern.

    Price can continue to move higher 4906 (Tuesday’s highs)

    or price can stall and move into a consolidation pattern using 4845 as support"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Early expectation of a move upwards into the 5-day channel and then see how price would react around this level.

    There was no probability pattern either way, either it continued higher or it was going to reverse back down into support.

    SPI is range bound between the Weekly 50% level and the Weekly highs, and at this stage it is short-term trading within the levels of the 5-day range until it gets closer to November.





    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 19th October 09 recap

    "Expectation that last week would reverse down, and this week is based on 'range trading' the Weekly 50% level and the Weekly highs.

    S&P starting the day above support, and if it’s above the 5-day 50% level then price can swing back towards last week’s highs (5-day high)"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Support on Monday has seen price move back towards the 5-day highs, and probably continue towards the Weekly highs this week.

    As per Weekly report, I'm interested in only trading short-term patterns within the 5-day range until November.




    Posted by

    SPI Daily 19th October 2009 recap

    The first part on Monday's trading is trading the range completion of the 42 points so that price moves into Monday's 5-day pattern.

    Below 4833-37 and the expectation is that price has to move down into 4817, as the first target...

    and then it's going to struggle to rise upwards on Monday, and should be viewed as part of the rotation back down into the Weekly 50% level (another R42 range down @ 4776)

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Today’s down move was set-up from last Thursday’s tops in the market, with the expectation that price is moving back down into the Weekly 50% levels.

    At this stage I’m treating the SPI as range bound between the Weekly 50% level and the Weekly highs, but this will need to be verified after the S&P moves follows a similar pattern

    At this stage I’m interested only trading the short-term patterns in the 5-day range until November.


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