Index Futures & Stock Reports 3 OCT 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update



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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 2nd October 09 recap



    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    S&P has moved down into the 3-week lows, which is the pattern that I wanted to see happen at the start of October.

    In a Bull market, this level will normally hold & form a support base over the next 3-days and then continue higher in the same month to complete the 3-monthly break and extend pattern from July into October/November highs.

    However, the S&P isn’t in a bull-market trend, all it has done is reverse back into the Yearly 50% level and reject back down.

    In a bull market what I would normally look for is the 3-day high range to drop below 1038 and then trade longs on the break. This is based on verifying support on a large timeframe (weekly), and then validating support in a lesser timeframe:- 3-day high breakout with an expectation that the October trend will continue.

    If the Trend is going to continue down then the same pattern can occur:- consolidate for 3-days below 1038 and then continue down once again towards the October 50% level.

    However, at this stage the important part was Friday remaining above 1012 and the 3-week lows, and Friday's support aorund the 5-day lows







    Posted by

    SPI Daily 2nd October 2009 part 2

    "Normally for the next UP leg to continue I would like to see prices back around the 3-week lows, the 3-week lows are much lower in the SPI @ 4474

    Therefore the 5-day lows need to breakout, with an expectation that price will move down 42-44 points"


    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Lower Friday open below the 5-day lows and I expected more weakness.

    Normally I would at least see a minimum move down 42-44 points outside the 5-day range, but most of the trading day remained consoldating.

    The SPI will move down towards 4474 depending on the price action in the US on Friday/Monday.


    Posted by

    DOW Futures Daily 1st Oct 2009

    "There is an expectation during the 4th Quarter that the market will continue higher during October/November,

    However, my preferred pattern before any continued UP trend would be to have a lower Weekly close and test the Weekly lows in the early part of the Month, and then continue higher in the later half of October/November"

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    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Early push down in October and into the Weekly lows.

    I have an expectation that US market will continue higher into October, but that's going to depend on how Friday closes.

    There is a potential move down into the October 50% level, however, if Friday & Monday ends up being supported around this week's lows @ 9398 (5-day low on Friday)

    Then I need to see a Weekly HOOK pattern back above 9581 (next Week), to get the last leg of the July breakout pattern to complete higher in October.

    Note:- it not a forgone conclusion that the last leg will complete upwards because the S&P has failed at the 3-year 50% level (precise highs) and now below the Yearly 50% level @ 1038.

    Therefore next week's HOOK has to be back above 1038 on the S&P




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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 1st October 2009 recap

    "Expectation of higher prices in the 4th Quarter, however price remain in a continued sideways pattern over the next 2 days until next week when the resistance disappears and shifts higher in October.

    Today:- support 4733 and resistance 4768.

    Bearish below 4717"



    SPI Monthly and 5-day pattern


    SPI continues to remain consolidating between the September levels and there is 1-day left in the Weekly timeframe to shift the ranges and allow the resistance to move upwards allowing the trend to continue higher.

    There is an expectation of higher prices in the 4th Quarter, but my preferred pattern is a lower move down towards the 3-week lows and then use those levels as support to trade the last leg upwards:- October/november

    Today:- early support from the spiral filter @ 4733 towards the highs @ 4768

    Late reversal down below 4717, suggests that the SPI will remain range bound this week.



    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 30th September 09 recap


    S&P Weekly

    S&P remains range bound between the September highs levels and the Weekly 50% levels to close out the 3rd Quarter.

    There is an expectation during the 4th Quarter that the market will continue higher during October/November, this is helped by resistance disappering on Thursday.

    However, my preferred pattern before any continued UP trend would be to have a lower Weekly close and test the Weekly lows in the early part of the Month, and then continue higher in the later half of October/November.

    Whether the preferred pattern plays out, I'll just have to wait and see, because the line of resistance for September has ended, and the trend will follow the line of least resistance.

    Posted by

    SPI Daily 30th September 2009 recap



    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Flat trading day to close out the 3rd quarter.

    Today’s set-up was based on the last r42 range from Tuesday, until that completed the expectation of a directional move towards Wednesday highs wasn’t going to occur.

    My bias was to use the 5-day high @ 4758 as a trend guide, with the expectation that price was moving down towards support @ 4728

    Based on the 5-day range @ 4758…whilst below the expectation was for the SPI to complete the previous range down into @ 4737, and move towards the 5-day 50% level @ 4728

    It was a slow and boring day never reaching the lower levels.



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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 29th September 09 recap

    "Lower Weekly open and 2-day reversal pattern can see US markets around their Weekly highs on Tuesday, and then reverse down on the same day into the 5-day 50% level.

    Or a 2nd day reversal can remain flat as part of a 2nd day stall"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern


    The normal pattern on any 2-day reversal from a lower Weekly open is to continue towards the Tuesday highs and then reverse back down into the 5-day 50% level on the same day.

    This is often based on the line of least resistance within the monthly timeframe.

    As we can see the line of least resistance is around 1062, not allowing the 2nd day ‘set-up’ to play out, instead remaining within a 2nd day stall pattern.


    Line of least resistance moves higher at the end of Wednesday.





    Posted by

    SPI Daily 29th September 2009 recap



    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Expectation of higher prices in the 4th Quarter, however today I was looking for Tuesday's 5-day highs to move back down into the 5-day 50% level @ 4715.

    Once price started to trade above 4758 after completing the R42 range high, the reversal pattern back down wasn't going to happen and the rest of today remained choppy.

    If US markets continue to rise upwards on Tuesday, as part of their 2nd day reversal pattern, the SPI can end up around 4811 by Wednesday.






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    • Posted by

    DOW Futures Daily 28th Sept 2009

    "As per Weekly report I’m looking for a 2-day reversal pattern upwards using the Weekly 50% levels as support.

    Weekly 50% level (brown) along with the lower weekly open has a bias to rise upwards over the next 2-days"

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    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    US markets swing upwards from the lower Weekly open after last week's reversal down.

    As we are coming into the end of the 3rd quarter and the start of the 4th, my view remains higher highs in the next 3-month cycle.

    However, my preferred pattern would be during October sometime, a move back down to retest the Weekly cycle lows, find support using a lower weekly close set-up, and then continue upwards into the higher high pattern in the next Quarter.

    When will that happen I won't know as yet, but it's something i'll be keeping an eye on during any 5-day pattern set-up starting from October.

    In the short-term after this 2-day pattern reversal the next Weekly set-up won't occur until next week.

    Back to 5-day pattern 'day-trading'.


    Posted by

    SPI Daily 28th September 2009 recap

    "Expectation is that the first 2 days will continue with the trend, or in the case a lower Weekly open and a 2-day reversal pattern.

    When price is opening near the 5-day 50% level I would favour a continuation upwards.

    If price opens below 4701, then the bias is down into support"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Because of Friday’s 5-day low support and trading above the September higher @ 4656, I would normally view the market rising upwards in the first 2-days of the week.

    However, for that to happen price on Monday needed to be above the 5-day 50% level and not below it.

    Once price opened below 4701 the bias was to push down into support levels.

    Monday remained range bound once again above the September highs @ 4656, and moving in it’s usual 42-44 point range.

    And if the SPI is going to continue upwards this week, there needs to be gains in US markets, and not breakout of 5-day lows on Monday in the S&P.

    The interest part this week will be after the 2-days of trading and Thursday’s open in relation to the Weekly 50% levels as the month of October starts, as the Support levels @ 4656 disappears and there is a shift higher in the monthly ranges.







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