Index, Forex, Stocks 12th March 2011

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

US Dollar INDEX, AUD/USD, EUR/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/

OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, TLS, BTA Banking Report Update

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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 11th March 2011 Daily recap.

    The S&P is either going to continue down into Friday's lows...., as part of Thursday's break (support 1283.50)

    or it’s going to continue upwards from Thurday’s Support level @ 1293.25 and rise up 14 points... which matches the daily level @ 1305.75.




    S&P Weekly and Daily range.

    Thursday’s support level @ 1293.25 held, however it had closed below the daily lows, which often suggests that the trend will push lower the next day.

    Friday moved down into the following support level @ 1283.50, resulting in a swing back towards the daily 50% level @ 1305.75...

    keeping the market above critical support levels for March.

    Weekly report out later


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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 11th March 2011 recap

    There is a breakout of the Weekly lows @ 4772, which in my opinion will extend down towards next week's lows, however Friday can move upwards, before continuing lower next week.

    Trend guide 4667



    SPI Weekly and Daily range.

    Friday’s trading was simply based on whether the market was going to swing back towards 4711, or continue down.

    Thursday’s break and extend pattern completed down into Friday’s lows, however it couldn’t remain above 4667, instead remaining range bound between the levels in the daily range


    S&P currently remains above the support level @ 1293, therefore if it rises upwards the SPI can open higher, but I'll still have the view that price is trying to move down towards 4584-90


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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 10th March 2011 Daily recap.

    Whilst the S&P remains below its Weekly 50% level, my view is that it's moving into the weekly lows and March 50% levels (as per Weekly report)

    Support 1293.25


    S&P Weekly and Daily range.

    The S&P has continued down into support levels @ 1293.25 providing a 8.5 reversal during the day, but then a flat close.

    As per Weekly report, 1293.25 is a critical support level for the S&P during March

    However, a failure to close above 1300 on Friday can put the S&P under more selling pressure as of next week, as the market begins trading below the 2011 highs @ 1300.

    Currently the market is below 1300, and it's also below the Daily range lows, which can often extend lower the following day.


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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 10th March 2011 recap

    Thursday will open on the key support levels @ 4770-73...

    Today is simply based on whether the market is either rising up towards 4802

    Or moving down towards the monthly lows by Friday



    SPI Weekly and Daily range

    Sell off from Thursday’s open @ 4773, which also coincides with a break of the Weekly support @ 4772.

    The market is now following a larger trend reversal pattern, as described below…



    SPI Primary & Secondary cycles, along with the Monthly Range

    The SPI has broken support and is following Set-up B or C.

    The Price action in February was following Set-up A;- a bounce off the monthly 50% level, and whilst above 4807 in March the bias was to follow the trend towards the 2nd Quarter highs @ 5093-96.

    That changed this week, with the market failing to remain above 4807, followed by today's breakout of the Weekly lows @ 4772, and now the continuation down towards the March lows

    There are now two larger reversal patterns playing out…

    #B) Continues down towards the 2nd quarter 50% level @ 4640-56 finding support

    #C) continues down towards 4565 during the current month of March, and opens below 4640-56 in April.

    If #C occurs, then there’s a possible 2nd Quarter move down towards the 2011 level @ 4442.

    Note:- The S&P continues to remain above support levels, and if it fails to hold support over the coming days, then SET-UP C is likely to play out.



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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 9th March 2011 Daily recap.

    The market continues to trade below the weekly 50% level, and I still have a view that the market is trying to move down towards the March 50% level.

    Based on the current price action (choppy), I would continue to focus on trading the minor range of 8.5 points


    S&P Weekly and Daily range.

    S&P has remained in a tight trading range, with a number of 8.5 point rotating ranges throughout the day.

    S&P continues to be capped under the Weekly 50% level, but it’s not moving down towards lower support levels.


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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 9th March 2011 recap

    Trend guide 4815

    Support 4798

    We have a similar pattern as last week, with a bias to rise upwards.



    SPI Weekly and Daily range.

    My view at the start of the day was that the market was going to rise upwards into another small range day, but with a potential down move into 4798-4800 to begin with.

    That down move from 4815 resulted in a break of intra-day support @ 4798 and a continuation down into Tuesday’s lows @ 4762.

    Sadly on my part it didn't retest the breakout @ 4798 (intra-day) before it continued down.

    Tuesday's lows provided short-term covering, closing the market right on the Weekly lows.


    Traders need to be aware that in the Weekly report, the key level is @ 4807 and it’s struggling to get above it.

    Depending on the price action in the S&P overnight, any further weakness on the SPI from could see the market continue down towards 4720, as part of a larger reversal pattern towards the start of the 2nd Quarter. (3-month lows)



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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 8th March 2011 Daily recap.

    Whilst the S&P remains below it's Weekly 50% levels @ 1322.50, I’ll continue to have the view that it's trying to move down into their support levels (130.50)



    S&P Weekly and Daily range

    There were two probable patterns in the S&P on Tuesday….

    #1 Remains within the channels and continues back towards the highs @ 1329.50

    or the one I favoured...

    #2 it shouldn’t move higher than 1319.50 & the trend continues down from the daily 50% level towards the weekly low level @ 1300.50

    Early weakness on Tuesday provided a 8.5 point reversal down, but it didn't complete the move into the Weekly lows, instead remaining in a tight trading range within the daily channels, whilst remaining below the Weekly 50% level.


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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 8th March 2011 recap

    Trend guide and Support @ 4770-72 (Weekly lows).

    Potential move towards 4807.



    SPI Weekly and Daily range


    The SPI continues to be supported around the Weekly lows in the day session, whilst the 24 hour range shows the market rising up from it’s 5-day lows and swinging back towards the channel @ 4812

    The rest of this week’s price action will be based on using 4806-07 as the trend guide.

    The S&P 500 continues to show signs of sellers appearing around it's Yearly highs...

    However, it fails to break support, keeping the Aussie market above key levels during the first Quarter, and the S&P trapped between it's two Primary levels of 1300 & 1331

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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 7th March 2011 Daily recap.


    There are two possible patterns for Monday

    A. Continues down from the Weekly 50% level towards the Daily & Weekly lows @ 1293 (support)

    B. The S&P remains within the Daily blue channels:- resistance 1326.50



    S&P Weekly and Daily range.

    My view was that this week would begin with some selling, as part of an attraction towards the monthly 50% levels in March.

    This was set-up nicely on Monday, with price rising up into the resistance zone of 1326.50.

    However, the S&P followed #2, and remained within the daily channels.


    Posted by

    SPI Daily 7th March 2011 recap


    Resistance 4944

    Expectation that Monday is moving down into 4807, which fills the gap from last week and moves into higher timeframe support levels.


    SPI Monthly, Weekly and Daily range

    As per Weekly index report, looking for a Gap closure down that matches the
    critical support levels in the SPI for MARCH:- 4807.

    This was set-up with Monday's rejection pattern @ 4844

    As per Weekly report, the larger timeframe cycle suggest further gains using
    4807 as support ;- orderly patterns towards new highs, as long price remains
    above 4807

    However, that can quickly change if the S&P shows further weakness whilst it's trading around it's 2011 highs, and during Globex hours on Monday, price is being rejected down from it’s Weekly 50% level @ 1322.25

    Resulting in the SPI now trading below critical support levels during the month of March



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