Aussie Index (SPI) 5th June 2010 Weekly

Australian Market (SPI Futures)

As pointed out a couple of weeks ago, it's too early to get comfortable with current support levels, as the lesser timeframes continue to have bearish patterns in June.

The Australian Market continues to remain supported above theYearly 50% level @ 4296, and may do so for the rest of 2010 into 2011( large consolidating pattern over the next 2 Quarters)

However, it's the S&P that's my concern.If the S&P follows the move towards 969 in the 3rd quarter, it will put the Aussie market around 340 and that would bottom out the market.

I'm not saying it will go that low, but is a possibility simply based on the S&P patterns.

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S&P (e-mini ) 4th June 2010 Daily recap

"Resistance June 50% level and Friday highs.

This can lead to a 2-day reversal pattern next week"



S&P Weekly and Daily range

S&P continued down on friday, as part of a 2nd wave down in June using the monthly 50% level.

However, I wasn't expecting Friday to end up such a larger trending whilst above the daily 50% level. (expecting next week from Monday to continue down)

And my precise 'top' failed to reach by 3 points.


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    SPI Daily 4th June 2010 recap

    "Resistance 4513-19 (Friday highs and June 50% level)

    Support 4451. (5-day 50% level)"



    SPI Weekly and Daily range.

    At the start of the day I was looking for a move up towards the June 50% level using 4451 as support…

    However, that failed to materialise, and Friday remained consolidating around the Weekly 50% level for most of the day until late market rally pushed the SPI upwards after the cash market closed.





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    S&P (e-mini ) 3rd June 2010 Daily recap

    "Resistance 1112

    Support 1092-95.

    Bias to continue towards the Monthly 50% level"



    S&P Weekly and Daily.

    Early dip into support but a lack of follow through towards the highs on Thursday.




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    SPI Daily 3rd June 2010 recap

    "SPI trading above the Weekly 50% levels (4430-41) and moving back towards the June 50% levels @ 4519,

    However the daily highs are going to be seen as resistance levels (spiral filter @ 4466)"



    SPI Weekly and daily range.

    Higher daily open and move down from the spiral filter @ 4466 into the Weekly 50% levels finding support and then a higher daily close, as price continues up towards the June 50% level.

    Minor intra-day swing patterns within the levels of the daily highs on Thursday after the support came in @ 4440 and closed back above 4455.




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    S&P (e-mini ) 2nd June 2010 Daily recap

    "Trend guide on the S&P is 1067.00

    The S&P rises up from 1067 and the minimum move is 8.5 points once again...(back towards the 5-day 50% level"



    S&P Weekly and Daily pattern.

    Early rise up from support and swing patterns of 8.5 points until the close above the 5-day 50% level has seen a move back towards the daily highs and the Weekly 50% level.

    S&P continues to remain consolidating this week within the 5-day range, and rotating towards the June 50% levels.



    S&P monthly and Weekly

    Major support in the S&P is holding as the Weekly timeframe remains in MAY.

    This week has seen a dip down into 1067 and now a swing back towards the June 50% levels, which will align with the Weekly timeframe next week.

    Those June 50% levels become the critical levels next month.










    Posted by

    SPI Daily 2nd June 2010 recap

    Support @ 4385-89

    Below support and has a bias to move down:- random length 42 points

    Major resistance @ 4430. (Weekly 50% level)




    SPI Weekly and Daily range

    SPI opened below support so my expectation was early resistance with a downward bias, as long price remained below 4385.

    However, that didn’t last long and the SPI rallied into 4430, which provided major resistance along with the spiral top at the same price and a reversal back down.

    Trend remains bearish but looks like a tight 5-day pattern this week:- choppy










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    S&P (e-mini ) 1st June 2010 Daily recap

    "First day of June and the monthly support levels have moved lower from 1059 to 1021.

    We can also see the Weekly 50% level in the S&P pushing price downward.

    Yellow trend guide & 8.5 ranges"




    S&P Weekly and Daily range.

    Tuesday has continued down as part of the shift in monthly dynamics.

    Early support on Tuesday as the intra-day price action topped out on the 8.5 spiral tops , but it was going to struggle to move higher because of the higher timeframe levels:- Weekly 50% levels..

    As per Weekly report I'm bearish on US markets & my view is for the market to continue down...

    However, this week can continue to consolidate and swing around within the 5-day range using 1067 as a trend guide:- Choppy


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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 1st June 2010 recap

    "The key is whether the Weekly 50% levels are going to push the market back down and follow the June lows.

    Below 4417 and the bias is to move back towards the 5-day 50% levels @ 4386"



    SPI Weekly and Daily range

    Higher timeframe resistance levels based on the Weekly 50% levels, along with price remaining below the MAY lows @ 4457.

    However today was an each way bet in early trading.

    Either swing up from 4417 or continue down precisely 42 points in support levels @ 4386.

    Once the R42 low aligned with the 5-day 50% level 4836 it provided a robust support level, however it was going to struggle to rise beyond 4417 closing the day in between.

    After hours trading (8Ppm) has seen the SPI continue down as the S&P 500 continues down during globex hours.




    Posted by

    SPI Daily 31st MAY 2010 recap

    MAY lows @ 4457 continue to be resistance during MAY (today), but disappear during June (tomorrow)

    Because of the MAY lows, I'm not sure the SPI is going to move beyond 4453-57 today.

    Trend bias is to continue down towards support levels or 42 points




    SPI Weekly and Daily range.

    MAY lows @ 4457 continued to resist the market today (21 point rotations) and then a late sell down into the close towards 42 points to complete the month of MAY

    There is a possibility that from tomorrow the market moves up towards the June 50% level, but there won’t be any leads from the US overnight.(public holdiday)






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