Index Futures, Forex Reports 1st Nov 08

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD. GBP/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/

Note: Weekly BHP and Banking Reports Update

http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/



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    • Posted by

    DOW S&P Daily 31st October 2008 Recap

    "This is the first time since August that the US markets have been able to remain above their Weekly 50% level on the 3rd day (Hook)

    Above the Weekly 50% level and expectation of higher prices on Friday:- simply trade on the side of support"

    Premium Report



    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    US markets followed the 'Hook' probability pattern of a higher close by Friday...

    The swing upwards has coincided with price moving back into the November 50% levels:-

    These 50% levels are now the trend guide for the next Month:- Ideal pattern would be to see 1 more drive down into November lows to finally bottom out this market...


    "October lows resistance (breakout forms resistance), and the trend guide for the 4th Quarter will be defined by the November 50% level.

    If that's the case:- then around November lows could provide the ideal 'swing' low for a swing UP towards the 2008 lows breakout:- higher close into the end of 2008"

    11th October Weekly report





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    • Posted by

    SPI 31st October 2008 Recap

    "Last day of the month, and it's important where today closes because it sets up November's level and the potential next down move:- Weekly Report tomorrow

    US markets were lackluster on Thursday:- I expected more buying off support on Thursday resulting in a push towards the 5-day highs, which would have resulted in the SPI opening around 4140 and our 5-day highs.....

    Today is simply about 4024


    Below and it's a trading day which will could end up slipping back down into the 5-day 50% level:- with short covering after 14:50"

    Premium Report


    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Trade on the side of 4024:- push down towards the 5-day 50% level @ 3928.

    Never got down that far but short-covering back into 4024,which often is the case on Friday's

    Note:- If US don't have a major rally on Friday with a breakout of their 5-day highs, but instead reverses back and drifts down on Friday, then things don't look so great early next week:- Weekly report tomorrow


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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) DOW 30th Ocotber 08

    "This week looks like it's heading back towards the 3-week highs, which is also the October low breakout.

    S&P now has a Hook over the Weekly:- support matches the Weekly 50% level on the S&P

    Thursday's highs Resistance"

    Premium Report



    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Wednesday on the S&P formed a HOOK bar over the Weekly 50% level.

    In any reversal trend within the Weekly timeframe Price normally comes down and re-tests support to confirm the reversal, and continues higher towards Friday.

    This occurred on Thursday but I expected a little more Buying into the close:- towards Thursday's highs.

    At this stage there is still an expectation of a higher close on Friday...



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    • Posted by

    SPI 30th September 2008 recap

    "Today is all about the 5-day 50% level @ 3888

    Above and the SPI is rising up from a lower Weekly open and with the expectation that price is moving towards the Weekly 50% level @ 4140.

    It's happened in most global Index markets, and also Forex.

    So at this stage we are lagging, and with BHP up over 15% again in NY, along with commodity prices rising, this leads me to the conclusion that markets are moving towards the November 50% levels next week"

    Premium Report



    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    "I'm leaning to trading Longs today, and if the above is playing out, trading any shorts today above 3888 is high Risk

    Yesterday and lower gap fill.... I strongly favour an Up day today"

    Today closed higher and should reach 4140 by tomorrow based on the 5-day pattern and Friday's highs.



    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) DOW 29th Ocotber 08

    "A bullish day would find support around the 50% level, but at this stage I can't see that support translating to further gains and a rally into Wednesday's 5-day highs.

    Note:- If FED cuts rates there could be a rally on the news, but keep in mind that Wednesday's 5-day highs is seen as resistance"

    Premium Report





    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    With the S&P trading below the Weekly 50% level on Wednesday, it was hard to see further gains unless the FED cut rates.

    Once the FED cuts rates the S&P and DOW rallied to the Wednesday highs, stalled, and then reversed back down.....

    This Week's trend will be defined by the 5-day 50% level on Thursday....




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    • Posted by

    SPI 29th October 2008 recap



    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Today was all about whether the SPI was going to continue towards the Weekly 50% level @ 4140 or fill the gap into 3852...

    It was simply trade on the Side of 4025...

    Above 4025 and it's towards the Weekly 50% level, but an open below 4025 and expectation that price was pushing down into 3947.

    And once below 3947 (5-day 50%), the Market was coming back down into 'gap' fill.

    As mentioned in Yesterday's report:- this week is all about 3852 and the 5-day pattern, therefore this push down on Wednesday into 3852 is part of 'gap' fill this week....

    Now it's up to US markets to decide whether we continue down this week.


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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) DOW 28th Ocotber 08 recap

    "In my opinion US markets are looking to rotate back towards the Weekly 50% level....

    Ideal pattern would be to rise upwards from Yellow support and break the 5-day 50% level.

    Note:- the 5-day 50% level is still seen as resistance.

    If price hasn't tested Yellow support on Tuesday, price could still come down as a 5-day 50% rejection pattern, and then have a late short-covering rally into the close.

    Above the 5-day 50% level shorting is open to Risk:- Weekly 50% level rotation

    I favour UP moves because price is trading above the 5-day blue filter channels"

    Premium Report....


    S&P Daily and 5-day pattern

    Early resistance around the 5-day 50% level, but after lunch and price trading above the 5-day 50% level......The only way was UP....

    S&P reaches the Weekly 50% level and the 5-day high on Tuesday.....



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    • Posted by

    SPI Trading 28th October 2008 Recap

    SPI Monthly and Weekly Charts

    Breakout of October lows and SPI continues down towards the Weekly
    lows @ 3703

    Ideal pattern would be for the SPI to find some support around the
    Weekly lows today, and then look for the first sign of a counter-trend
    move from Wednesday back towards the Weekly 50% level.

    This will only occur if US market lead, but the first sign will be price
    trading above Monday's highs.

    This scenario will lead a swing back towards the November 50% level,
    which will also drag the November lows higher by Next week.

    The Trend guide for next month will be simply defined by the Monthly
    50% level, with the potential to continue down into November lows.

    Note:- there is a breakout of October lows, a retest and reject
    pattern of the break:- This often leads to a push down into the next
    Months lows:- thrust pattern and continuation of the trend.

    Therefore even if there is a counter-trend move later this week, there is still
    the expectation of price moving down into November's lows.

    If this week continues down (below 3703) then already we can see how far November can continue to go next month (3484)......

    SPI Weekly and Spiral filter 16:30

    SPI didn't hit the Weekly lows @ 3703 precisely, but with 2.50pm
    short-covering coming into the market and pushing the market back
    towards Monday's highs....

    As mentioned in the Premium Report:- 2.50 pm short covering and ideally a retest of 3771 and then more short covering into the close

    In my opinion it sets up a rotation back towards the Weekly 50%
    level.

    Now whether US markets do the same on Tuesday, and we open much
    higher tomorrow, or not....

    3852 was my Weekly bias on Monday and will remain my trend bias for this
    5-day pattern.


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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) DOW 27th Ocotber 08 recap

    "Currently DOW and S&P are trading below Yellow Support on Monday.

    Below support and price is following the 5-day pattern lower:- Monday's lows.

    Above support and swing into the 5-day 50% level, but probably won't happen at this stage...."

    Premium Report




    S&P Daily and 5-day pattern

    US markets pushed down on Monday and into Monday's lows, where once again price found support and went through its usual rotation between support and the 5-day 50% level....

    Volatile day on Monday and price looks to be pushing down into Tuesday's lows, which matches the Weekly lows



    Posted by

    SPI 27th October 2008 recap

    "October low breakout and expectation that the SPI is heading down into November lows.

    Today is all about 3852..

    Below and the SPI is moving down into the Weekly lows @ 3703

    Friday 5-day breakout @ 3883"

    Morning Report



    SPI Daily and 5-day pattern....

    16:00 Recap

    SPI pushes down from 3852 and remains capped below this level.

    I expected more downside in the Market, but Resource stocks currently supported around 4th Quarter lows, whilst Financials are pushing down.

    Whether it gets down to 3703 will depend on US markets on Monday...






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