Australian Index Weekly Report Update....(23rd February )

US index Weekly Report Update.....

Please click the Weekly reports to the right

DOW E-mini 22nd February 08 part 4

Nice short covering rally on the close swinging upwards 114 points (primary range).....

Rotation back towards the 5-day 50% level.....

bang on support........

Full Weekly report later.....

DOW E-mini 22nd February 2008 part 3

US markets have continued down into support zones...... nice set-up and continuation of Weekly trend down....

Around these lows expectation that any short-covering 'could?' occur in the last 2 hours before Friday's close.....

These levels are exit zones on any short positions on the high probability short-set-up....

Longs around these lows isn't a high-probability set-up.....

DOW E-mini 22nd February 08 part 2

DOW following the sell- pattern down on Friday.....

Look to partial exit around 95 points down from Friday swing highs..

Expectation that price can go down further today....

Any late short-covering rally would be late in the day off support levels....(previous 5-day lows can support the market)

DOW E-mini 22nd February 2008

US markets range bound with major support around the Quarterly lows (read Weekly report), however there is a bias for the market to push down early in the day and then have short-covering rallies near the end of the day if rising upwards from near the 5-day lows....

A move down on Friday below the 3-day lows and expectation is that it could move down as far as the previous Weekly 50% levels from last week.....

DOW intra-day

This Week on the DOW we had good early set-ups by trading from 50% levels outwards, and trading the upper channel back towards the 5-day 50% level yesterday.

On Friday the probability trade is to continue the down move into lower levels:- ideally from the 5-day 50% level down which matches yesterday's support level...

Note: the previous top is the 5-day 50% level which matches the Weekly 50% level (resistance)

E-mini:-

exactly the same: Sell down into lower channels.....

Note:- if there is going to be a short covering rally then the 5-day lows with the view for a swing back upwards late in the day towards the 50% levels....

Day traders manage risk using the upper levels within the charts

SPI Trading 22nd February 2008 part 6

15:40

Late buying has pushed the SPI upwards into the 5-day 50% levels, and the buying came in once again around the 14:36 timeframe, but it didn't align with a spiral point to trade upwards so I didn't trade any longs....

In hindsight:- the Quarterly lows once again were supporting price at the time...

I did enter shorts on the R44 high @ 5507 (stopped- 5513 -6)

A higher risk trade but the trade was warranted because price was trading below the 3-day lows....

Full Weekly report tomorrow.....

SPI Trading 22nd February 2008 part 5

13:56

SPI consolidating below the 3-day lows and swinging in 44 point rotations above 5476 (support) coming into the last 100 mins of trading...

I can't see any potential trades this afternoon, and it's hard press to see any late buying coming into the market....maybe a R44 spiral top @ 5508 and then push down into the close......

The only high probability reversal trade is the R44 low @ 14:36 and that's not likely at this stage.....

Or....

A double 44 lower low:- same price action as Tuesday and Wednesday:- short-covering rally but not based on the 14:36 time

A breakout above today's highs late in the day will try and push back towards the 5-day 50% level @ 5549.... but I won't be trading any upside breaks....

At this stage it still looks like it wants to go down because of the consolidation below 5515...

FOREX GBP/USD 22nd February 2008

GBP bounced off the Weekly .618 and move into a counter-trend rally back towards the 3-day highs. I expected that move could happen but not in 1 day, normally that would be a 2-day reversal towards those highs.

Price is still trading below the Weekly 50% level, and that level will drop down next week to form a support zone for any higher moves....

Whilst price is trading above the 3-day high @ 1.9610 the expectation is price is moving towards Friday's high (right chart)....

Yesterday's rally began with the 'HOOK' back inside 1.9450 with the view that the up move would continue 110 pips:- the rally moved double R110 pips and into the 3-day highs...

Friday's trading:- no high probability trade... risk level is the 3-day high breakout of 1.9612 above and it's pushing upwards towards Friday's highs....

Below it's rotating back down into the 5-day 50% level....

SPI Trading 22nd February 2008 part 4

SPI 10:52

Exit last @ 5466 .... +44

no more trading today.....

Potential weakness down lower is a high probability today....but so is Friday's 'short-covering', which they tend to do.....

SPI Recap later.....

SPI Trading 22nd February 2008 part 3

10.30

SPI bounced off the lows and is back into the 3-day lows and resistance @ 5515....

i'm surprised that it has moved back up into the 3-day lows, I thought it was just going to continue down....therefore there is a lot of support around these lower levels today (5493)

Looking at the R44 range it has to complete one way or the other...preferrably down... (upside 5524)

stopped on trailing @ 5509 (breakeven stop)

re-entered Shorts on double r22 high

S 5511 partial exit 5498 (+13)

holding 1 lot with the expectation that price is heading lower....

if stopped on this trade (stops @ 5516) no more trading today....

looking for an exit @ 5452....

SPI Trading 22nd February 2008 part 2

10:08....

the perfect entry:- 22 upwards reversal under the 3-day lows @ 5515...

There is a lot of support around 5493 (Quarterly lows) so it isn't a certainty that there is going to be continue weakness today....

Entry S 5511 added 5509

Partial Exit 5493

Next exit 5482

and then holding 1 lot with breakeven stops from entry with the expectation that 5476 is going the break and head lower ...

SPI Trading 22nd February 2008

US markets sold down on Thursday, and by looking at the price action on the SPI on Thursday, that inside UP bar doesn't look like it's going up today.

In fact if it opens below the 3-day lows @ 5511 yesterday's expectation of a down-move could be happening today....

Scenarios:- Depends on where the market opens today:-

The daily 50% levels have been gravitational zones and the market has been rotating around them and pushing downward.

Looking at the market I'm leaning to the downside:- A good trading set-up would be a failure around the gap @ 5520 (22 points up and reversal) down.....

Therefore levels of interest are 5520

Above 5520 and it's pushing back into the 50% levels (circled)

A failure of 5520 and moving down expectation price is hitting 5476, and below 5476 it's moving down into yesterday's downside target @ 5410.....(Lower Weekly close)

Manage Risk with Above levels:- if trading below 5476 not looking for any longs trades today.....

Note: after early moves in the market there has been consolidation around timeframe levels that often provide a secondary trade looking for the r44 completion. I'll keep an eye on consolidating patterns....

Once again above 5520 and the entire set-up has failed

The Last 3 out of 4 Friday's have either moved higher or provided a late R44 Reversal pattern off its lows. Today being Friday the statisitics have favoured higher closes so we need to keep this in mind today.

However by looking at the price action I don't favour this happening today...we should know by the first hour of trading today's direction....

DOW E-mini 21st February 2008 part 2

US markets selling down from Resistance with the expectation that price would come down and re-test the 5-day 50% levels......

However price is moved down into intra-day support and breaking it......

With about 2.5 hours to go before the trading day ends, it wouldn't surprise me to see some short-covering in the market, but the bias is down and a break of the 3-day lows in both markets on Thursday and the view is for a continuation down into Friday...

The view was to trade down from Thursday's highs back into support, and after move completed, it was to manage Risk by using the intra-day levels, with a test of support not a good sign because price was back below the Weekly and 5-day 50% levels...

At this stage there is no support until the Wednesday's lows, and a breakout of those lows today and this is the weaker 'sell' pattern that I expected to happen after Tuesday's reversal down....

Full report later.....

FOREX GBP/USD 21st Feb 2008 part 3

GBP bouncing off the .618 lows and moving into a 2-day counter-trend move upwards...

Expectation that any 2-day swing could move back towards the 3-day highs.....@1.9612..

The Trend stated with matching 5-day lows and .618 Weekly lows, with the expectation that there would be a 110 pip reversal, but when the R110 'hooked' back inside the SD channel low @ 1.9450 there was a high probability UP move of another 110 pips...

There could be a stalling period around the highs @ 1.9559, (110 high)...but the expectation is that this reversal is heading back to the 3-day highs.....

FOREX GBP/USD 21st Feb 2008 part 2

GBP:- Reversed off the Weekly .618 range @ 1.9370 and has pushed up 110 pips into a risk level @ 1.9471....

My earlier view was that this could provide an ideal reversal trade back down (110 pips) and into the lows....

What has happened it has 'hooked' back inside an SD channel that often provides support.....

Price would need to drop back under 1.9450 for me to feel that price is going to go back down , otherwise the expectation is that it will move another 110 pips upwards....

This could happen because of the bounce off the Weekly .618 lows yesterday......

DOW E-mini 21st February 2008

US markets are trading above their Weekly 50% levels, and the only conclusion is that US markets are moving towards the .618 Weekly tops....

At this stage: Wednesday's trading is viewed as a 'HOOK' day, which is often bullish, but first it needs to come down and re-test support before continuing higher....


This week's high probability pattern was Trading Longs on Monday...and then trading Wednesday shorts down into support.

I didn't expect such a counter-trend move upwards on Wednesday.... therfore there is no high-probability trade on Thursday other than using the above levels as Risk trades for day traders.....

A higher open on Thursday and they will try and fade the market down to re-test the Weekly 50% levels and 5-day 50% levels....

Note:- Often when there is a HOOK pattern, the market will go back and find support around the 5-day 50% level and briefly move below the Weekly 50% level before heading upwards.

Both the 5-day 50% levels and Weekly 50% level match

If Price moves down as far as support:- then traders need to keep in mind that price is trading below the Weekly 50% level and the 5-day 50% level:- it's either going to support price or break lower.....

I don't have a high- probability trade on Thursday:- it's use the levels above and manage Risk....

SPI Trading 21st Feb 08 part 7 Recap...

15:05 SPI Recap

This morning's set-up was based on the failure of 5539 and the movement back down into 5476 (valid support) but with the expectation that the set-up would continue down below 5476...

The first set-up failed.... but the price action today was based on the previous 5-day ranges:- the high and failure at Wednesday's 50% level @ 5580, the consolidation around Thursday's 50% level @ 5539 , and then the support off the 5-day lows @ 5476.....

Because my analysis and set-up was based on 'short-trading', I just used the Risk level to trade shorts with the expectation that at least price would move down into 5476....

I also made a point all day about the potential of a 14:36 short-covering rally off the R44 spiral lows.... it wasn't where I expected the rally to happen from, but it happened.....

We got an exact 14:36 short-covering rally off 5476, and if it continues up it should swing back to the 5-day 50% level @ 5539...

I didn't trade it, but i've already got a few emails saying others did.....

Choppy trading day:- but the levels and spiral points were enough to give everyone an idea about today's trading.

SPI Trading 21st Feb 2008 part 6

14:20

SPI pushed down into yesterday's 5-day lows @ 5476, with an expectation that there could be further weakness into the close if it breaks 5476.......

Covered last @ 5489...... +49

No more trades until tomorrow..... I'm not interested in trading any potential R44 low around 5476 and 14:36 (short-squeeze)

I would have preferred this price action occur from this morning because it would have been much easier to hold down into close..... (more open positions)

SPI Trading 21st Feb 2008 part 5

13:18

SPI consolidating under risk @ 5539 and pushing down from an R44 spiral top....

expectation that the R44 range will complete @ 5520....

Keep an eye on 14:36 if buying comes off this level and pushes upwards:- the price action today doesn't favour a short-covering rally based on Range bar activity, and it can easily move down into close.....

My last short entry @ 5540 partial exit @ 5529 (+11)

and holding 1 lot with a stop @ 5545....

Note: It depends on how the market reacts around 5520 whether I cover and switch into longs, but if price is trading below 5520 before 14:36 then i'm holding short into close......

If price hits 5520 after 14.:36 and begins to rise, I'll cover short (higher Risk long trades off 5520 whilst trading below 5539)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
13:45

SPI trading @ 5522 moving stop to 5539

If there is going to be any short-covering rally it will begin from 5520 and move upwards in the last 100 minutes of trading......

At this stage not looking to trade longs.....

SPI Trading 21st Feb 2008 part 4

11:25

SPI has reversed down from the highs and now consolidating around the Risk levels, with an each way bet on the direction for today.....

I haven't traded longs today because my entire set-up was based on Shorting, and with the failure of yesterday's Risk levels and a push below 5539 I was looking for further weakness down into the 5-day lows....

I use the R22 Reversal trade which matched the Risk level and it was looking good for a moment but it has now moved back above 5539....

Entry S 5539 Stopped 5545 -6

I'll give myself 1 more short today but not while it's above 5539 and if there is going to be any higher moves into the close then around 14:36 i'll keep an eye on price action for longs....

SPI Trading 21st Feb 2008 part 3 Recap..

10:28 SPI Recap

Double R44 rally into the previous 5-day 50% range and has stalled.....

44 points down from highs will match Risk @ 5539....

Each way bet on today:- supports the market and moves higher into the close

Reverses down under 5539 and moves back towards the 5-day lows.....

If this is valid support whilst it's trading above 5539 then late 14:36 BUYing could come into play on an R44 low only if it's trading above 5539 at the time.....

No trades since this morning.....

SPI Trading 21st February 2008 part 2

10:05

SPI hit resistance and has moved up into and R44 high.....

Whilst above 5539 shorting is open to risk....

But a 44 point reversal back under 5539 and this is still part of my morning report analysis....and further weakness down.

It would need to 'hook' back under 5539 (44 point reversal) and become resistance.... otherwise expected further gains (not trading longs atm)....

Entry S 5538 (stopped @ 5542) -4

R44 spiral top and I can't go long at the moment:- but 5539 could end up being a support zone today with further upside moves........

SPI Trading 21st February 2008

Wild night on US markets:- selling down from the sell-zones early on Wednesday, bouncing off support, and then closing above the Weekly 50% level. That price action in the US suugests it's hard to see any further weakness this week, and more likely to head upwards than down....(Full US report later)

But is it going to be enough to save our market today from making lower lows on Thursday?

The Weekly range has been modeled for further weakness in the Australian market, with a potential low this week @ 5288.

If that's the expectation to move down towards 5288 this week I would like to think that I can sell the market down to this level with a low risk entry.

My low Risk Entry is using resistance @ 5539…(R87 high @ 5532)

An extremely important level on Thursday is 5476…. (the 5-day lows)

Ideally there could be some buying support to come off this level on Thursday and move up into the resistance zone. This should hopefully provide with a low-risk SHORT entry back down….

If it can then break 5476 then I'm are looking for down move into 5412 and down into the 5-day lows @ 5392...(breakout of the 5-day range into the extended 5-day lows)

5476 as an extremely important support zone, but not a BUY zone because I have modeled further weakness into 5288 this week, and if it's trading below 5476 and hasn't reached resistance then it probably won't.

Note: I had a high probability trade yesterday to move down from 5620 and into 5578.....

5578 was another high probability LONG trade, that failed. However I had modelled that the consolidation under the 5578 yesterday would put selling pressure into the market and push downwards on Wednesday because of the price action in the US.

Today's high probability trade is sell-resistance @ 5539..... if it's trading above it, then the entire set-up has failed.....

FOREX GBP/USD 21st Feb 2008

GBP has continued down into the same .618 Weekly level as two weeks ago, with the next day breaking lower after finding support....

It's a bit too early to say whether it will do the same, but we can see there is a 2nd 3-day breakout of the range that does favour further weakness towards Thursday's lows.....

The R110 pip range has moved down into the 5-day lows and bounced:- this matches the Weekly .618 level so there is valid support around the lows...

However I'm going to subscribe to GBP as continuing down, and if that's the case then the R110 Spiral high @ 1.9471 would be an ideal Risk/resistance level on Thursday....

Any bounce off the Weekly .618 shouldn't rise more than 110 pips for Thursday to push down.....(Full Report later)

DOW E-mini 20th February 08 part 2

US markets sold down from the sell zones on Wednesday into the Support levels, and have reversed off the lows.

The Support levels are always valid, but I didn't expect a reversal off the lows that would be pushing back above the 5-day 50% level with 2 hours left before the end of trading.....

A Wednesday 'close' above the 5-day 50% level and Weekly 50% level could end up being a 'HOOK' day.....

Where Wednesday closes is important for the rest of the week's trading, as is tomorrow's support level......

DOW E-mini 20th February 2008

"Monday that rises higher has a random length:- it might reach the 5-day highs or it might not, but it's not a 'shorting' day whilst trading above the Weekly 50% level.

A Monday that rises higher is the start of a new Trading week with the potential that price could continue higher each day:- But that's not my Analytical view because of resistance.

A 'shorting' day will be valid around higher timeframe resistance and a higher open on Tuesday, but that will need to be confirmed by price moving back under the Weekly 50% level. If that price action occurs then my Analytical view is price is moving back down into Weekly lows, and at a much faster rate than many would expect....

(Weekly Report 17th February)

That's the Price action we have on Tuesday, and whilst the US markets are trading below the Weekly 50% levels in both markets, then my expectation is that price is heading towards the
.618 ranges (circled)

The Trend guide on Wednesday is going to be driven the 5-day 50% levels in both markets, with the expectation that price is heading down into support levels....

Those levels can often support the market today, but they aren't BUY zones this week:- the trading zones are the 5-day 50% levels to trade down into lower support zones and exit.....

The entire analysis is based on price trading below the Weekly 50% levels in both markets as per Weekly Report...

SPI Trading 20th Feb Part 5 Recap

15:40

Sell off continues breaking the 3-day low support @ 5511 and now moving lower into the 5-day lows @ 5476.....

Price action is playing out this week's expectation of down moves based on US markets failure on Tuesday to remain above the Weekly 50% level....

If US market continue down this week, and SPI model is to move towards 5288

SPI Trading 20th Feb Part 4 Recap

Scenario 2. Pushes down from 5620 and into 5578, but then just keeps on going down into another R44 lows around 5536, with the potential of further weakness in the 2nd half of the day..

Therefore levels of interests are:- minor resistance around 5620

Important support level of 5578..... and Risk trading.

Note: Can't disregard 5578 pushing down with the expectation that US markets are going to move down....(morning Report)

15:20

And that's pretty much how the day played out....there could be some short covering late in the day but I'm not interested in looking for bottoms today:-

All I was interested in was trading down from 5620 into 5578.... going long, and switching the support into resistance with the expectation of this down move into 5536.....

Next trade tomorrow......

SPI Trading 20th Feb Part 3 Recap

12.23....

Market consolidating around risk level @ 5578 , and no idea how the market will trade this afternoon..... currently trading below the 5-day 50% levels.....

Shorted on the swing upwards @ 5580 partial exit @ 5567 (+13) , but stopped out on trailing stop @ 5580.....

No more trades today;- next trade tomorrow....

Whilst trading below the 5-day 50% level expectation that the R44 completion @ 5551 will play out and potential further weakness in the afternoon...

If I wasn't stopped out I was holding for R44 completion....

If I see some short-covering rally based on repeating patterns I'll pre-inform you...but won't be trading it..

SPI recap @ 15.20

FOREX GBP/USD 20th February 2008

GBP pushing down follwing the Weekly trend and into the Daily lows....

Expectation that when the market breaks the 3-day range, price will either move down to the bottom channel the following day, or re-test the 3-day breakout before continuing with the downtrend the next day.

On Tuesday price moved up into the 3-day break (re-test) and now heading lower into Wednesday's lows.

I can't see any major reversal around Wednesday's low otherthan, a 43 pip reversal (max 110pip )...

No high probability trades for Wednesday

SPI Trading 20th Feb Part 2 Recap

10:49

SPI moved down into 5578 from 5620 and now has found support around the R87 spiral low @ 5568 and the Risk level @ 5578......

This morning trade was the perfect set-up on the short trade down from 5620 and into the R44 low.... This was the expected move......

However I expected more buying support around these levels now, and a bullish move would have began to rise upwards towards 5620 again and not flat line around the support zone....

the previous 5-day level @ 5595 is capping the market....

Entry Shorts @ 5616 partial exit 5593 and 5585 (+31)

Moved to longs@ 5581 stopped 5574 (-8)

On the sidelines until things move away, but the upside move that I though could have played out by now is slowly failing to the downside...

SPI Trading 20th February 2008

US markets pushed down on Tuesday, which is part of a bearish pattern even though there was a short-covering rally late in day. The potential for further weakness this week still part of the Weekly expectation whilst price remains below the Weekly 50% levels. (US report later)

The SPI is currently range bound below the weekly 50% level and above the Quarterly support, and until the SPI breaks the 3-day lows then it's more rotation between timeframe levels.


Today:- Yesterday's resistance-sell zone swings down from 5654 and in 5578.....

Support 5578:-

Two scenarios:- and it depends on where the market opens today, because that support level is only formed if price moves down and completes the R44 range from yesterday...

1. Moves down into 5578 and swings up from 5578 which matches an R44 spiral bottom and heads towards 5620....a breakout above 5620 and my view we have a trending day upwards with the target the Weekly 50% level @ 5685, and as high as the 5-day highs.

If trading above 5620 and there is an R44 reversal low look for late Buying around the last 100 mins of trading...

Scenario 2. Pushes down from 5620 and into 5578, but then just keeps on going down into another R44 lows around 5536, with the potential of further weakness in the 2nd half of the day..

Therefore levels of interests are:- minor resistance around 5620

Important support level of 5578..... and Risk trading.

Note: Can't disregard 5578 pushing down with the expectation that US markets are going to move down

DOW 19th February 2008 part 3

DOW selling off on Tuesday, and moving back into support level:- Which for me isn't a vaild support level if it's selling off on Tuesday and moving under the Weekly 50% level......


The Short-term view of the market has been modelled to move higher on Monday towards the 5-day highs, this is valid unless price is trading below 'support'.

A Monday that rises higher has a random length:- it might reach the 5-day highs or it might not, but it's not a 'shorting' day whilst trading above the Weekly 50% level.

A Monday that rises higher is the start of a new Trading week with the potential that price could continue higher each day:- But that's not my Analytical view because of resistance.

A 'shorting' day will be valid around higher timeframe resistance and a higher open on Tuesday, but that will need to be confirmed by price moving back under the Weekly 50% level.

If that price action occurs then my Analytical view is price is moving back down into Weekly lows, and at a much faster rate than many would expect....(Weekly Report 17th February)

DOW E-mini 19th Feb 2008 part 2

US Markets trading and being supported above the Weekly 50% level in both markets


With two hours left in the trading day, the re-test of the Weekly 50% level and support often suggests that markets will continue upwards into the close of the trading day...

E-mini pushed upwards into an R14 spiral-top early on Tuesday before coming back down to re-test the Weekly 50% level....

And the DOW is still trading and being supported above the 3-day break with an expected Range to complete on the upside..

Note: Not a good sign the be closing below the Weekly 50% level in the last 2-hours of the trading day...

DOW Emini Report 19th February 2008

Expectation that Monday was rising based on the 2-day reversal pattern and 3rd day rally.

We can see the last 3 Weekly 50% levels provide higher prices, and whilst the market is above the Weekly 50% levels in both markets the trend remains up.


The high probability pattern was for a rising day on Monday, this was achieved and now the rest of the trading week is open book.

Furthur gains in US markets and they hit February resistance levels, and any failure or reversal back under the Weekly 50% level and then trend will be pushed down heavily

Monday's entry continued upwards from perfect support and market path is towards the 5-day highs, with the trend guide the 5-day 50% level......

Bearish pattern is a break of support:- but traders should manage risk with the 5-day 50% level.

Tuesday:- for those swing traders to still holding the upper market path are based on the Range bar targets, as shown above and an ideal exit zone.

Whilst the DOW remains above the 3-day 50% level then expectaion price is continuing higher in those targets.

There is no probability trade on Tuesday....

SPI Trading 19th Feb part 4 Recap

13:52 SPI Recap

Market drifting down and trading below the 5-day 50% level.

Daily trend remains bearish below Weekly 50% level and 5-day 50% level.

Same price pattern as yesterday on the R44 low, where we saw buying coming into the market late in the day, and very similiar price action around the current lows today.

Still holding 1 lot short, dropped stop from 5647 down to 5631....

Not interested in trading longs below the 5-day 50% level, but certainly understand that buying support can come into the market in the last 100 minutes of trading.

Next SPI report tomorrow.....

US Report will be important because it will have a huge influence on the overall trend of the market based on trading either side of the Weekly 50% level.

FOREX GBP/USD 19th Feb 2008

Weekly Trend bearish with the breakout of the 3-day lows on Monday and expectation that price is moving down towards Tuesday's lows.

Tuesday's lows are valid support 1.9440 , along with an R110 spiral bottom @ 1.9445

I can't see a major turned around on Tuesday, best expectation would be a 43 pip rise as partial exit, and then hopefully a 110 pip high (swing back to the 5-day 50%) , but the overall trend is weak and any upside swing the 5-day 50% level should be use as a trend 'sell' resistance.......

With a breakout of the Weekly .618 range 1.9437 viewed as price moving down towards February lows....

The Stock Report update BHP...

http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/search?q=BHP

SPI Trading 19th Feb part 3 Recap

10:34... SPI Recap

SPI is Trading below the Weekly 50% level and above the 5-day 50% level:- now it has to breakout of this range and begin to move towards the highs or lows of the 5-day range (either way).

The set-up this morning was to short trade around 5654 with the expectation that there would be a minimum move of 44 points to close the 'gap'.....

Now the rest of the day is an open book......

It won't surprise me either way.... up move and it heads towards the 5-day highs....rising up from the 5-day 50% level following the Weekly analysis from the Weekend Report...

Down and there is a potential down move this week to 5288, only if US markets drop below the Weekly 50% level on Tuesday.....

Note:- I've removed my exit zone from 5570 and holding 1 lot into close if not stopped out @ 5647..