Australian Market Weekly Report update (17th February 2008)
US Market Weekly Report update
please click Weekly reports to the right
DOW E-mini 15th February 2008 part 2
Friday in US markets have moved into a 2nd day 'stall', this was confirmed once price was under the 5-day 50% level for Thursday, with the expectation that the market would push back down into Support.With 2 hours left before market close, you'll probably get 'short-covering' before the Weekend pushing the market upwards and completing the 2nd day stall.....
Primary range on the DOW is 144 points (book)We can see price is supported around the SD channels on Friday, but trading below the 3-day 50% levels....
This range needs to complete:- down and it matches the Support levels...
However using the SD channel and support @ 12294, it favors a push back upwards to the 3-day 50% level @ 12403 and (144 points upwards)
That's the view for early next week on Monday:- 2 day stall completion and 3rd day rising matches the Technical view based on price patterns and 144 points upwards.
Full Weekly report later......
FOREX GBP/USD 15th Feb 2008 part 2
GBP has followed the move back down from Thursday's highs and back into the 5-day 50% level on FridayThe Reversal from the highs was confirmed not only by the R110 spiral top, but also the 'dilernia-drop' in the forward Timeframe.... (read previous Report)
The 5-day 50% level is a target on the down move (exit), but I don't view it as a BUY zone...
Friday has a random length and can push down much further...
Next be trade will be from next Week....
DOW E-mini 15th February 2008
DOWN day in US markets on Thursday:- expectation of 1 down day in an UP trending Weekly pattern, especially after the market has moved up 3-days in a row.Two patterns for Friday:- A higher Weekly close will be based on Friday rising higher (obviously).
A Weaker pattern will be based on a 2-day reversal after the change of the 3-day cycle.
Whenever the market breaks the 3-day cycle, often there can be a two day reversal back down into the 3-day lows.... or usually a 2-day stalling pattern before the next trend begins the following week.
So which one will it be?????
Just like Thursday's trading, the previous 5-day range will give the best view of the market.
Yesterday closed below the 5-day 50% level on Thursday, this is often seen as bearish, and if Prices are trading below Friday's 50% level, then the expectation is that the market is moving down into the channel lows.
A bullish pattern will move up from the 5-day 50% level on Friday, but it needs to move back above Thursday's 50% level for a swing back up into Friday....
There is no high probability pattern on Friday other than trading on the side of RISK levels....
12395 DOW 1352 E-mini
SPI Trading 15th Feb 08 part 7
15:43SPI swinging around 44 points and the spiral low @ 5536 provided the best low Risk entry for longs into the close....
I exited last contract @ 5579, (+41) and taking the day off...
I still expect further gains into the close, probably the best pattern would be an R22 down from these highs,and then the next move UP into the close from an R22 spiral low.....which I won't be trading...
Full Weekly Report tomorrow.....
SPI Trading 15th Feb 08 part 6
14:56SPI moved down into the BUY zone and R44 spiral bottom.....
A bullish pattern should swing upwards and move back above 5552 and into the close of the day...
A bearish close is a failure under 5552 and moves back down taking out 5536 (lower Daily close)
Entry 5538
Partial Exit @ 5551 (+13)
Stops @ 5534
Holding into close or 5593....
If stopped out won't trade again today, but regardless, today turned out much better than expected
SPI Trading 15th Feb 08 part 5
14:33SPI swinging around in 22 point moves, with an expectant down move into an R44 low would be my next long trade, but it's high risk especially coming down on Friday whilst it's trading below the 5-day 50% level.
entry S 5574 Exit 5562 +12
In hindsight:- trading longs around the R22 Spiral bottoms were good trades because price was actually trading above the R44 high @ 5555 forming a support zone....
Note:- If market bounces off these R22 lows again above 5555, I won't short-trade R22 tops again this afternoon because I think the market will move higher, as buying support comes in again around 14:36, which often pushes the market UP.......
SPI Trading 15th Feb 08 part 4 RECAP
13:05 RECAPThis morning I wanted to trade Longs on Open, because of the view that the market was heading back into the 5-day 50% level or a move upwards of 44 points..
If the market opened below 5583, then the best entry was for the market to move 22-points down before trading longs....
Now so far during the trading day the market has moved into a consolidation phase, but look at all the moves within the current day:- each move is based on precise 22 point moves.
Because I have a view of the market coming down into an R44 low before it can provide a better long trade, I've just simply use a 6 point reversal around the highs today.
Entry S 5570 exit 5555 (+15)
entry S 5572 exit 5558 (+14)
Entry S 5570 exit 5559 (+11)
Even the R22 lows are swinging around, and using the same R6 reversal I could have traded longs, but the view of moving down 44 points has stopped me taking longs...
At This stage I still don't know what the market will do this afternoon but the market on Friday is being heavily influenced by 22 points moves today.....
FOREX GBP/USD 15th February 2008
GBP:- upside potential move this week is to the Weekly .618 range @ 1.9789, which also matches the Friday highs...However, 4 days up in one Weekly timeframe and there is a much higher probability of 1 down day in this 5-day Weekly pattern.
Along with 'forward-drops' on Monday, today actually favours a 'down-day', which could go as far as the 5-day 50% level, and the 3-day breakout from Tuesday....(down day random length)
Price is coming down from the 110 pip high, whilst price is coming down from this upper level, then expectation is that the minimum move is down to 1.9628...
There can be support around that level, but a 'down day' can move much further down on Friday.
The only view I have is a push down on Friday, but I also understand that any down move into lower levels can bounce and head up into Friday highs late today or Monday....
Ideally would like to see a DOWN day, verify support, and then trade UPwards from next week using the Weekly 50% level as a trend guide.
SPI Trading 15th February 2008 part 3
11:34SPI is trading below the Weekly and 5-day 50% level and moving into a consolidating pattern between those levels and the 5-day lows.
If the market is going to continue higher into the close and move back towards the 5-day 50% level @ 5602, then I would like to see a move down 44 points.
A 44 point spiral low has provided 'reversal patterns' on two previous occasions whilst trading around these levels.
That's the price pattern that I would look for once again to trade longs today.
Resistance 5594 (spiral top and Weekly 50% level)
Note: I want to trade up into 5594 from an R44 low....
After hitting 5594 and coming down into an R44 low has increased Risk to be trading longs...
SPI Trading 15th February 2008 part 2
10:36
SPI opened below the Weekly 50% level and 5-day 50% level and continued down following the Weekly trend and moving down towards the Quarterly support and 5-day lows @ 5481
When the market opened below 5583 there was an expectation that price would push down 22 points before looking to swing back up into the Gap or at least to the 5-day 50% level @ 5602 (44 points up)
There was buying support around the R22 lows @ 5553, but it has continued down following the Weekly trend.
Long 5554 (stopped 5543 - 11)
I was surprised that there wasn't at least a 22 point up move from 5553..... the 22 point fade is often a robust entry strategy of 'gap' opens
Market has continued down into 5531 and the R44 low...
1 lot entry on R44 low @ 5537 stopped 5530 ( -7)
1 lot entry @ 5522 (double R11)
Exit 5544 +22
I still have the view there has to be some buying support or at least move 44 points upwards, but after this up move into 5555 I don't have any probability of what the rest of the day will do.....
Swing down into the 5-day lows @ 5481, or actually swing upwards into the 5-day 50% level @ 5602:-
Sidesways Weekly 5-day pattern
No more trading until things settle down because price isn't trading near any support/resistance levels.
SPI Trading 15th February 2008
SPI Supported around the Quarterly lows and trading around the Weekly 50% level.The expectation this week was a higher close on Friday, or at least a move UP towards the 5-day highs this week @ 5710. (Sycom completed)
The move UP towards the February 50% level is still a probability this month, but it's more likely to happen next week, than any major up move this week, using the head and shoulders pattern on the Weekly timeframe....
Is Friday going to move higher, or is it going to remain flat or even close down on Friday??
Price is opening below the 5-day 50% level @ 5602 and below the Weekly 50% level, therefore it makes it difficult to have a clear cut view on today's overall direction.
There is a lower gap open today and the expectation is that price will try and move upwards towards the gap closure @ 5638 (resistance)
Therefore I want to trade 'longs' , but I don't have any high probability support...
Area of interest is 5583 (previous 5-day 50%), but also i'll be looking for a 22 point fade against the trend before looking for a move up.
Possible patterns today:-
A move higher towards 5638 and it stalls and the market consolidates for the rest of Friday (tight 5-day Weekly pattern)
Moves up to 5638, and then is supported around the 5-day 50% level @ 5602 and then continues upwards (late on Friday)
Moves up 44 points and then heads down on Friday.....
Basically my set-up is only focused on trading the long side early in the day and look for the 44 point completion, and then try and judge the market after that.
Hard day to trade today on open, and it won't surprise me to see the market close near it's lows on Friday either (2nd half of the day).
DOW E-mini 14th February 08 part 2
US markets have moved down on Thursday and back towards the 5-day 50% levels using the Previous Wednesday's 5-day high as a confirming 'sell'Keep in mind that Thursday is a DOWN day with a random length, that any support needs to be verified by today's close, and then Friday is traded upwards.
Full Report later:- Because on most occassions price will try and move towards the previous 3-day break due to the change of the 3-day cycle, often being a 2-day stall/reversal.
FOREX GBP/USD 14th Feb 08 part 3
GBP continued upwards into the 110 pip high on Thursday and consolidating around Thursday's high.Around the top there has been a double 43 pip rejection...
Whilst price is moving down on Thursday from a 110 pip high the expectation remains that it will move down 110 pips
However, once Friday begins there is a good chance that Friday will look to move towards Friday's highs, which match the Weekly .618 range (previous Report)
FOREX GBP/USD 14th Feb 08 part 2
GBP making extended gains on Thursday as it follows the Daily ranges higher (110 pip moves)Around 1.9724 on Thursday will be the next Spiral point, but my view that any selling around that high could be short-lived (Wednesday high support)
Market path is to .618 of the Weekly range @ 1.9789, which looks like matching on Friday...
DOW E-mini Trading 14th February 08
US markets rising up from the Quarterly lows and moving into a 'bottom-to-top' Weekly 5-day pattern.Even though the expectation is that price can move higher into Friday, there is always 1 day that can turn around and move against the overall trend, as was the case last week, and the possibility this week.
3 days up in a row, and the probability of a daily reversal has increased....
This week's high probability pattern was longs above the Weekly 50% level up into the 3-day high, and any break of the 3-day high and the potential to follow the daily dynamics higher each day are probability patterns.However for 'day-trading' there isn't any high probability pattern, it's simply judging the daily risk parameters using past 5-day ranges....
Whilst above Wednesday's high, expectation that price will move up into Thursday...
Below Wednesday 5-day high, and it's moving down:- 5-day 50% level and then the previous breakout of the 3-day range....
Use 5-day levels as risk parameters....
SPI Trading 14th February 2008 part 5
15:10SPI pushing upwards into the close with any potential rise upwards from today can take price towards the 5-day highs @ 5710.....
However I haven't traded since my last trade because of the potential of higher moves into the close, so i'm not going to short the SPI.
And I couldn't go long because it didn't swing back down to complete the R44 range and Spiral low....
What I wanted to happened was a Sell down from previous R44 highs into an R44 low and then trade longs upwards into the close. (less Risk)
My entry was 5602, but 5606 was the low before moving higher.....
Recap:- Today was following my expectation but price action was choppy, and what I simply did was trade my levels and take chunks out of the ATR.
Today ended up much better than yesterday, simply because I got out at my exit level, whereas yesterday didn't follow through on the first trade.
And even though I have a certain view on the daily direction, if it doesn't align with a 'spiral-point' and timeframe level, then I won't trade again....
Note: Buyers came into the market again around 14:36
FOREX GBP/USD 14th February 08
GBP continued higher towards Wednesday's highs and hitting daily resistance.Ideally I would have liked to see price test the 5-day 50% level before heading higher, but regardless if you missed trading longs, or didn't trade longs, there was a 'short' trade at the top of the market using the same resistance level.
Once again minimum move is a 43 pip reversal, and now it decides whether there is going to be a down move back into the 3-day breakout, or does it follow the Weekly Trend upwards, as it follows the dynamic ranges higher each day.
Note: Rising upwards from a lower Weekly open using Quarterly support can continue higher into Friday. A rising Weekly trend can still have 1 down day inside the 5-day pattern.
Weekly 50% level is now a support level and trend guide. 1.9582
I've dropped the 120 pips down to 110 pip ranges, because of a couple of near misses lately, and it seems 110 pips is the new range/spiral.
If price is going to move down on Thursday, then it will be 110 pips:-
If price is going to continue higher by Friday, then the Weekly level should support price and then rise upwards on Friday....(lower daily open rising upwards)
A bullish Weekly timeframe can continue upwards into higher prices on Thursday:- but with price coming down from 110 pip spiral top from Wednesday, then I wouldn't go looking for 'long' trades on Thursday unless it comes back down....
SPI Trading 14th February 2008 part 4
11:38SPI continued higher into the R44 high @ 5638 and the 5-day 50% level @ 5633 (expected to have some resistance) Resistance or Breakout
Entry shorts on R11 reversal @ 5632
Partial exit 5621 R22
Exit all 5614 (+18)
No more trading today;- as the rest of the day has three different price actions that could play out....(as previous report)
I would not try and short trade above 5633 if it breaks higher in the afternoon:- expectation of 5-day high target
Next trade tomorrow
SPI Trading 14th February 2008 part 3
10:58SPI:- what looked like an ideal long trade this morning has ended up a choppy trading daywithout a clear direction (trading either side fo the 5-day 50% level.
Yesterday I mentioned about an R44 'hook' bar, and this is what has occured today.
A 'hook' Bar can just continue upwards all day, or hopefully come back 22 points re-testing the same support levels before continuing higher...
I took a 1 lot long at the top because of market rotation. The Reason for the long was because it was consolidating above the R44 high @ 5601, and because of the possbility of not coming back...
Entry long 5602 (stop 5994 R11 Trio)
Exit @ 5617
My next trade is going to be around trading support once again.....
Three possible outcomes--
1. the market doesn't come back down and just continues higher breaking 6533
2. hopefully re-tests support for better Longs trades and hold into close. (another R44 spiral bottom and support)
3. it rotates around 44 points all day closing down...
My next Long trade will be my last trade for today....
IF the earlier longs continued upwards, I would have held until the EOD (5-day highs)
SPI Trading 14th February 2008 part 2
10:15Expectation that the best entry for longs was a re-test of the Weekly and 5-day 50% level, and a high probability pattern was an R44 spiral low....
If the market reached 5633 on open(Previous 5-day 50%) I would have shorted price down before trading longs, but it didn't reach resistance.
Entry Longs 5594 (Weekly 50% level) Stopped 5589 -5 (Trio R 11 Break)
Entry Longs 5582 (R44 lows) and added 5589
Exit 5599
Exit 5616
Trailing stop @ 5589 holding 1 lot with the expectation that price can break 5633....
SPI Trading 14th February 2008
SPI supported above the Quarterly lows @ 5493 , and consoldating around and below the Weekly 50% levels of 5593 and 5668.At the start of this week expectation was that the SPI would move into a higher close by Friday, as it rises upwards from Quarterly lows and a lower Weekly open. We can see US markets moving in a much more orderly fashion upwards, whilst the Australian market is held back by the Banking stocks (the stock report)
The expectation still remains that price is moving higher into Friday...
Today:-Price is opening above the 5-day 50% level @ 5583 and also above the Weekly 50% level @ 5593. The only view I have whilst price is above these levels are:- Price is moving towards the 5-day highs @ 5710
There is going to be a higher open today, normally I would wait until price rotates back down 44 points and use Support/ spiral points to trade upwards.
This might still be the case during the day, but i'm going to define the market by each previous 5-day 50% level....and the Weekly 50% level @ 5593
Above 5593 and price is heading back to 5633:- above 5633 (resistance/break) and expectation that market is moving higher....
If price hits 5633 and stalls, then there is a potential of a 44 point reversal or 'gap' closure, before the market moves higher.
Yesterday I was focusing on trading long positions until the market provided a 'short' trade using 'risk' parameters, and today I will be doing the same. As long as I'm on the right side of the level then I can judge Risk clearly, because even if i'm wrong my stops should be tight.
There is no high probability trading set-up today, it's about day=trading the levels and taking chunks out of the ATR, until it gets above 5633
Today being Valentines day, hopefully the market can show us a little bit of love....
DOW E-mini 13th February 2008 part 2
US markets following the 3-day break on Tuesday heading upwards towards Wednesday's highs.A Weekly timeframe rising upwards from a lower Weekly open and Quarterly support, the expectation that each day can follow the dynamic ranges higher (bottom-to-top)
The 5-day range from the previous day will be used as Risk levels during this week, as it moves with the dynamic ranges.
Note: In rising Weekly timeframes there is an expectation that there can be 1 down day in the 5-day pattern (Full Report later)
DOW E-mini 13th February 2008
US markets supported around the Quarterly lows and consolidating in a sideways Weekly pattern.This Week's expectation was that if price is rising upwards from the Weekly 50% level, then the expectation was that the move would take price back to the 3-day highs.
Those 3-day highs yesterday's broke upwards, but failed late in the day, with the E-minis failing 'resistance' around the previous weekly 50% level @ 1359.....
And Price failing to remaining above the 5-day highs....
Levels of Interest:- 5-day 50% levels
A move down and re-test of the 5-day 50% level needs to move back above yesterday's 3-day high breakout, with the view that price is following higher prices into Wednesday highs.
Tuesday's 5-day highs:- 12396 & 1354
A move upwards early in the day and failing at those highs and moving back down, then a break below the 5-day 50% level price can follow the overall higher timeframes back down....
Note: There is still major support around Quarterly lows
There is no high probability pattern for Wednesday, it's 'Risk' day-trading using the above levels
SPI Trading 13th Feb 2008 part 5 Recap
15:40....SPI RECAP
Today's expectation was that price was heading upwards towards the 5-day highs @ 5713. This was because price was opening above the Weekly 50% level and also the 5-day 50% level.
Around those 5-day highs was my 'Sell' Zone...
I also had the view that price would most likely move down from 5668 into the lower 'gap' before swinging upwards...
My plan was to trade down and then trade up using precise levels in the market, because more often than not around those levels will often provide some 'follow-through'
If I was only interested in trading 10 point moves in the market, then every trade would have been a winner. However I'm not trading only 10 point moves, I focus on 22 and 44 point ranges.
If my view today was that the market was moving down, and today's open was trading below the 5-day 50% level and the Weekly 50% level, then the 22 point rejection under 5633 would have been an ideal 'short' trade. But the market dynamics wasn't aligned today, whereas this was the technique I used on Monday.....
22 point rejection under support which becomes resistance
The continued down move today did provide another 'low' risk trade:- shorting the 5-day 50% level @ 5586 along with the R44 spiral top.
Because Today's down move wasn't part of my Trading set-up, I was only interested in taking out 22 point moves when shorting around 5585.
The rotation of the market allowed 2 'shorts', if the market continued down without reversing up into an R44 high @ 5585, then I wouldn't have shorted or traded again..
I'm not interested in Trading longs around these lows today, because there isn't any support in the market until price moves back into the Quarterly lows @ 5493.
Until tomorrow.....
SPI Trading 13th Feb part 4
14:00SPI still consolidating below the 5-day 50% level @ 5586 and the Spiral point high....with a 2nd push down of 22 points, but still failing to complete the 44 down bar @ 5540
As I mentioned earlier, the possibilty of a 'HOOK' bar around 5594 can send the market higher into close...
This will be verified by an R44 reversal and then remaining above 5586...
Previous trade short trade @ 5582 partial exit 5568 (+14).... and stopped on breakeven @ 5581
I won't be short trading around 5586 again today...
FOREX GBP/USD 13th February 2008
GBP Broke the 3-day high on Tuesday moving UP towards the 5-day highs and now reversing back down into the break...Tuesday's high probability set-up was an R120 pip low and then rising upwards, however price pushed down 116 pips on tuesday before reversing upwards breaking the 3-day range, and then moving higher.
Wednesday:- A high probability pattern would have seen Wednesday continue up into the highs @ 1.9660 before reversing down back into the 3-day break and 5-day 50% level.
A rising Weekly Trend would see Wednesday support price from the breakout and then rise higher on Thursday... (re-test support and verify support)
But this price action is ocurring at a faster rate:- meaning don't trade longs below the 5-day 50% level, because with a failure of the 3-day cycle highs and move back under the 5-day 50% level, GBP could easily move back down into Wednesday's lows....
Therefore:- the 3-day high break and 5-day 50% level should be used as an important support level:- Above and it's moving towards Wednesday's high (120 pip spiral low)
Below Tuesday's 3-day high break @ 1.9539 and trading longs open to Risk....
SPI Trading 13th Feb 2008 part 3
11:25SPI Swing up into the 5-day 50% level @ 5586 and matches an R44 spiral top...
lower Risk 'short' trade:- higher Spiral top and matching timeframe level
Entry Short :- 5583, 5579 added 5574
Partial exit 5561 leaving 1 lot open with target R44 down...stop 5579
Note:- Bullish pattern would be an R44 'hook' back above the 5-day 50% level, I wouldn't go looking for 'shorts' above 5586 if this occurs today...
~~~~~~11:35 covered last contract @ 5561:- same price.( +17)~~~~~~~~~~~
SPI Trading 13th Feb 2008 part 2 Recap
SPI Recap 10:50There were two plays on the market today:- Using the Risk of 5633 as a Trend Guide on any higher moves today.... and Shorting from 5568 down into an R44 low (gap closure)
However a major down move back below 5593 Weekly 50% level wasn't part of my view.
The Market opened lower than expected around the Risk level @ 5633....
My first Trade was based on using this as support and the trading up into an R44 high to exit Longs @ 5663.
44 points up would have matched an R44 high and the Weekly 50% level @ 5668 to 'short' trade down..
I entered longs on an R11 'Hook' @ 5635, trade was looking good moving to a high of 5658 before it reversed down taking out my Trailing stop @ 5629 using the R11 trio.... (-6)
My 2nd trade was based on the R44 spiral low... if the market was going to move higher then either it was going to be from this level @ 5614 or 5593 (Weekly 50%)
Entered longs @ 5616 partial exit @ 5630 (+14)
A bullish set-up had to swing upwards 22 points and then continue back upwards above 5633 (RISK), if this occured I was going to hold into the 5-day highs...
But what happened was a perfect 22 point up-swing and reversal back down under RISK 5633...
How often has this occurred sending the market down, as it came back down I was stopped on breakeven stop @ 5616.
My 3rd trade Long trade was 5595 (Weekly 50% level)...there was an 11 point upswing before continuing down with the daily trend
(stopped 5592) -3
In conclusion:- Trend remains down and is trading below all timeframe 50% levels, and I'll only trade again today if there is a low risk trade, because after the break below the Weekly 50% level @ 5593, anything else today isn't part of my daily plan...
Every other trade today was part of my daily plan, and it could have easily been a great day if the market had risen and extra 5-10 points today because this would have aligned with exitting longs and switching to shorts for an 44 point reversal...
SPI Trading 13th February 2008
SPI rising upwards from Quarterly support and moving towards the 5-day high range, with the potential of a higher close on Friday....Levels of Interest are the two Weekly 50% levels @ 5668 and 5593...
This week's expectation:- once price was over the Weekly 50% level and then the 5-day 50% level, the market-path was to head back towards the 5-day highs. This was reached overnight in Sycom.
Therefore the expectation is that the SPI is moving up towards 5713..
However:- higher open and expectation is that price needs to come down first before moving upwards. (Higher Spiral point)
Like yesterday the Weekly 50% level was used as the first resistance point to trade the 'gap' down, and the same is going to be today. Last week's 50% level @ 5668 is the resistance zone to trade the 'gap'...
Two patterns I'm looking for today after any fade down from open.....
Yesterday's 50% level @ 5633, with matching Dilernia pivot can support the market moving up into the 5-day highs...
Or a move back down in the gap @ 5600 (R44 spiral low) before moving upwards...
Risk level is 5633...
Note: I also mentioned that once it gets to the 5-day highs, we are looking to 'short' the market again.
Keep in mind that the Weekly timeframe is rising upwards from a bottom, and the 5-day high sell is a valid strategy, but each 5-day high will dynamically rise higher each day.
A 5-day high 'sell' is much more valid when the Weekly timeframe closes on its highs (Friday), and then is moving down from a higher Weekly open the following week.
DOW E-mini 12th February 08 part 3
US markets:- breakout of the 3-day highs.....In fact all markets and GBP trading around the Quarterly lows have followed similar patterns, rising upwards off major Quarterly support and then breaking the 3-day highs.
A breakout of the 3-day highs:- expectation that the market will stall and rotate down for the next 2-days before heading higher on Friday..
Full Report later.....
DOW Trading 12th February 2008 part 2
DOW has moved up into the 3-day highs and stalled....3-day high resistance, and any rotation down needs to move back below the 5-day 50% level and then move down into the Weekly 50% level..
Note: there is a lot of support around the Quarterly lows, therefore traders need to take caution 'shorting' above the 3-day highs
DOW E-mini 12th February 2008
US markets trading above the Weekly 50% levels and moving towards their 3-day highs....
Around these highs sets up for a 'Sell-pattern' back down to the Daily lows again....Don't short trade above the 3-day highs.....
Market is well supported around Quarterly lows, trading above Weekly 50% level, and also above 5-day 50% level, therefore a breakout above the 3-day highs and this confirms a rotating Weekly pattern upwards using Quarterly lows as support.....
SPI Trading 12th Feb part 5 RECAP #2
SPI Recap 16:11
SPI moved down from the Weekly 50% level of 5993 and back down into Major support around the Quarterly lows @ 5493.
The Price action and the coming together tomorrow of the 5-day range will have Wednesday's 5-day 50% level aligned with the Weekly 50% level, and all of a sudden price could be above the 5-day 50% level and also the Weekly 50%, which will favour a rotation back towards the 5-day highs...
Since the previous post, I was looking for the Quarterly lows of 5493 to support the market, move higher and then add longs on an R44 spiral bottom and hold into close.
The Market moved higher but the R44 spiral bottom didn't eventuate, it just continued higher.
When I posted the previous Post I didn't think the market would come back down and re-test and consolidate above 5493:-
I re-entered longs using the same pattern as before: double R11 reversal @ 5501 and exit @ 5517.... (+16)
I wanted to BUY @ 5506 because it was my view that the same price acton was going to happen again as yesterday but it hit 5508 and continued higher...(missed longs)
Next thing I was trying to short the market around the 2nd R44 top, because of the view price would swing down into an R44 low, before continuing higher....
R44 spiral Top 5573
Short 5570 (stopped 5577) -7
Short 5571 (stopped 5575) -6
Short 5569 Partial exit 5562 (+7) Stopped 5575 (-6)
Short 5572 Partial exit 5560 (+12) Stopped 5580 (-8)
Weekly 50% level 5593
Short 5586 Exit 5571 (+15)
In Conclusion: I could of and should of traded the market better today, but when I missed to opening short trade from 5593, it made me chase the entry and then I exited far too early @ 5562.
I wasn't concerned about the next loss on trading longs around 5550, because that was part of today's plan...
The trading longs around the lows of 5493 was part of the plan, but it had to be verified with certain price action....(major support)
Shorting around these highs late in the day wasn't part of the plan....
FOREX GBP/USD 12th February 2008
GBP trading around Quarterly support levels (major support)However, price is trading below all higher timeframe 50% levels and price is in a 3-day 'Sell' Cycle.
Any further weakness this week and market-path is to move down towards the lower Weekly and Monthly channel lows, as shown in the chart (above right)
Expectation for any continued down move this week was for price to move up and re-test last Week's Thursday breakout @ 1.9530, and then move down into channel lows:- Day trading exit around 90-120 pips...
We can see yesterday hitting Resistance and moving down exactly 90 pips, before Buying support came in, however there is still a 120 pip range to look for completion on Tuesday...
The 5-day 50% level should be used as a Trend guide on Tuesday, with the Expectation that 120 pips will complete...Note: Quarterly support and a lower Weekly open, if the market is going to move higher this week then it will be confirmed with the breakout of the 3-day high 1.9539.
This can easily happen, and a breakout would send the market back towards the 5-day highs @ 1.96510...
High Probability pattern:- 120 pip completion down on Tuesday, but then rising upwards from a Spiral low and then breaking the 3-day high...(Wednesday)
This will also Match the Quarterly low support zone...1.9429
Otherwise trade with the Trend, and that is down......
SPI Trading 12 Feb part 5 RECAP
11:15amSPI opened higher today around the resistance zone of the Weekly 50% level @ 5593...
This favoured 'shorting' because of the higher 'Spiral tops' and the lower gap closure @ 5551
However the Support I was looking for @ 5550 didn't eventuate, but continued down into the Quarterly lows again, and 87 points down...
We can see that any break of the 3-day lows, and it favours a push down into the Weekly .618 range @ 5362...
Around the Quarterly lows, and there was an R87 spiral point, and consolidation.
I wasn't going to trade again today, but when the market provided a 2nd R11 reversal around the lows I entered 1 lot long @ 5504 and exitted @ 5527.
If I traded 2 lots I would remain long with stops @ breakeven from my entry....
Now the rest of the day has a random outcome.......it can continue upwards or push lower following the overall trend of the market..
The past two lows, there was buying support in the market, but a lower Spiral point on an R44 provided a 2nd UP move into close...
Now for me to trade Longs again, I would need to see the SPI rise upwards today, come back down and provide a 2nd Reversal pattern from a lower R44 spiral point, otherwise I'm not trading again today....
Note: We can see the 5-day ranges beginning to come together tomorrow, this is either going to provide major swing patterns tomorrow, or a 'breakout' of the Weekly Range....
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