Index futures Forex Reports 28th June 08


Weekly Index, Stocks, Forex Reports out now...


Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/

DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/


EUR/USD, AUD/USD. GBP/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


The Stock Report....

Banks/ Financials and BHP...

http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/




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    • Posted by

    S&P DOW 27th June 2008

    S&P Daily & 5-day pattern

    Expectation US markets moving lower towards July's lows.

    On Thursday there was a breakout of the 5-day lows, and expectation that a breakout of the 5-day low would continue down towards the 5-day lows in the next day (Friday)

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    • Posted by

    SPI Trading 27th June 2008 Recap

    Morning Report:- " When we look at the 5-day patterns (5-day low @ 5194) this is extremely important.....

    If it opens below the 5-day low @ 5194, then the expectation price will push down 21 points and into 5169.

    5169 is my support level for today:- which will be defined by the Spiral filter on any rotations upwards.

    Therefore:- as a general rule today to minimise Risk:- no short trading above 5216 and no going long below 5169 (unless confirmed with a spiral filter)



    SPI Daily and 5-day pattern 16:05

    SPI opens below 5194 pushes down 44 points and reverses upwards...

    Once it broke the 5-day filter @ 5216 expectation that the Gap fill and 5-day 50% level would be reach...

    Personally I didn't think the market would move into a counter-trend move. Usually when the SPI opens below the 5-day lows (5194) is pushes down 44 points and more often than not will remain below that level.

    however I also understand that once certain levels break or cross over the market will follow the next level, which was a move from 5216 and back into the 5-day 50% level.

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    • Posted by

    S&P DOW Trading 26th June 2008 recap

    S&P Daily and 5-day pattern


    S&P breaks the 5-day lows on Thursday, completing the move down into June's lows @ 1288, and with the expectation that all global markets will move into a lower low pattern in July before the next counter-trend move.....




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        • Posted by

        SPI Trading 26th June 2008 Recap

        Morning Report:-"If the SPI is going to move higher then it should move down into an R21 low and then rise up from the Spiral filter and continue higher from above 5256-8

        If Prices do move higher from 5256-58 then the upside target is 5305, which has an random expectation of resistance today:- Above 5305 today and my view is prices are moving higher into Friday (Rising Weekly Trend into Friday)"

        SPI 10:09 intra-day report

        "We have a breakout pattern on the SPI (above 5305) expectation price is pushing up 44 points (5351), but today now has a random length....

        Random price action today is based on moving up into 5351, which then 'could' reverse back down and re-test 5305 before continuing higher..."


        SPI 16:20

        This morning's set-up based on the sycom close:- a push down to 5256 and then trade up towards 5305, however the SPI opened much higher than expected breaking the high @ 5305 and moving up 44 points early in the day.

        As pointed out in the intra-day report, the break above 5305 and expectation was pushing up 44 points but also reversing back down. Once price had reached 5351,then the expectation was for price to come back down and re-test the breakout....

        If price had reversed down into 5305 much earlier in the day, I would have looked for more buying upwards into the close, but the reversal has occured to late in the day to get more buying other than supporting price, which could result in higher prices tomorrow, but i'll come to that later.


        Posted by

        S&P DOW Trading 25th June Recap

        "Now it becomes a pattern of looking for a reversal upward back towards the Weekly 50% level as part of a Weekly counter-trend move.

        Friday's breakout of the 5-day lows and the expectation price would move down into the 5-day lows the next day, but it took until Tuesday to full-fill the pattern.

        At this stage whilst price is trading above the Support levels (yellow) then the bias is to rise higher ;- ideally the counter-trend move would come and test support and rise up and head towards the 3-day highs, this would be of course confirmed with price trading above the 5-day 50% level...."

        Morning Report.

        S&P Daily and 5-day pattern

        S&P moved higher and into the 3-day highs, stalling at the Weekly balance point and drifting back down into support.....

        Posted by

        SPI Trading 25th June 2008 Recap

        "Lower Weekly open and we have had a two day up move back into the 5-day 50% level. (Monday & Tuesday)

        Normally in a downtrend, a reversal back into the 5-day 50% level can send the market back down, especially after a 2-day counter-trend move and 3rd day sell-off. (Wednesday)

        But it's going to be hard to 'short' a lower Daily open.

        A move should rise up from support and move back into the spiral filter.... bearish pattern is a rise up into the spiral filter and rejects price down into 5237, as price is trading below the Filter, whereas yesterday was above"

        Morning Report....


        SPI 16:05

        SPI opens lower and moves up into the spiral filter, rejecting down into 5237, as part of a 3rd day sell off.

        5-day filter @ 5237 supports price, reversing off the lows.....



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        • Posted by

        S&P DOW Trading 24th June 2008 Recap

        "US markets are pushing down from the previous Weekly breakout, with the expectation price will move lower into the next weekly lows :- breakout and extend

        Often that move downwards occurs after a 2-day stall reversal pattern, yesterday was the first day, and Tuesday is a 2nd day.

        Yesterday we can see price continue down on Monday from the breakout of the 5-day lows from Friday, but the move wasn't as far as I hope it would.

        Today.....

        Whilst above support price is moving up into the resistance levels, these resistance levels have a random outcome on whether price stalls or not

        I don't have a high probability pattern on Tuesday, as the next pattern will be on Wednesday.

        Premium Report....



        S&P Daily and 5-day pattern

        Tuesday pushed down into the 5-day low reversing back up into Resistance and moving into a 2nd stalling pattern.

        Tuesday's move down into the 5-day lows completes the breakout range from Friday's 5-day lows:- break and extend, which was the pattern I was looking for to complete on Monday...


        Posted by

        SPI Trading 24th June 2008 recap

        "Today is about whether the SPI continues with the 2-day counter-trend move up (lower Weekly open), or pushes back down towards yesterdays lows.

        With the lower open, it's hard to go short on open from a lower Spiral point, therefore I favour a higher move back towards the 5-day 50% level and as high as 5319

        And it's simply going to be defined by the lower spiral point filter:- above and expectation it's moving higher (5263)"

        Premium Morning report....

        SPI 16:00 recap

        SPI opens higher and pushes down into the Spiral filter (5263) and then swings up into 5319, as part of the 2-day counter-trend move UP from the Weekly lows...

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        • Posted by

        S&P DOW Trading 23rd June Recap



        S&P Daily and 5-day pattern

        US markets remain below the previous Weekly breakout and 5-day lows, trying to push lower on Monday, as per Weekly Report.

        I would have liked US markets to push lower on Monday down into the 5-day lows, and then look for a 2-day counter-trend move upwards, but with the lack of 'range' on Monday gives little for Tuesday's trading...

        Tuesday's report later...


        Posted by

        SPI Trading 23rd June 2008 Recap



        SPI 16:00 Recap

        Monday's trading was all about the 5-day lows @ 5230.

        The SPI opened around the Weekly lows @ 5214 pushing up from the 5-day lows, as it follows the Weekly pattern of a lower open and a 2-day reversal counter-trend move.

        Today's price action closed the gap @ 5280 continuing higher into the 5-day filter 5306.

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        • Posted by

        Testimonials

        Frank,

        I am enjoying reading about your approach.
        I read 2 or 3 trading books each year as a form of continuing education.
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        cheers for now, Peter.


        I just wanted to say thank you for your thoughts and analysis in "The Trader
        Trading", excellent work and insight into the market.

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        Well done. Chris




        Using your model this week I managed this morning to reach 100 points (on minis) for the week. A genuine milestone for me.

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        Regards, Peter.


        I find your trading methodology very simple, straightforward and profitable to use especially with the new risk filters and the additional information in "Trader Premium".

        Thanks again…Mike.



        I have been day trading the SPI for about 10 years and have done reasonably
        well but by no means brilliant. Since reading your book and using your levels, I have done much better.

        The biggest improvement is in knowing how quick the SPI can reverse, and
        having greater confidence in where to look for reversals using spiral points.

        Regards, L.E



        I have followed Market Profile, Peter Steidlmeyer, Drummond Geometry, Charles Drummond for some time now, and to some degree, Robert Krausz, Fibonacci Trader methodologies. But I have been most interested in Range of cycles and their movement over time. You are ahead of the curve. Your book has confirmed to me what I have been seeking. Keep up the great work. John (US)


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        I wish to thank you for your assistance in learning how to trade global markets, without you I would have taken many years to discover what you have taught me. You are aware how hard trading is, and without your book and support I would not be a full time trader. I owe you alot. All I know is you have change my life. (Nial Aust)


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        Brent Penfold (Trading systems developer and Trading Book author)www.indextrader.com.au





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