Index Futures & Stock Reports 21 August 09

iWeekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update

OIL Stock section

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Posted by

DOW S&P Daily 21 August 2009 recap

"Bearish this week until Wednesday's price action resulting in Weekly HOOK patterns and a small range day on Thursday.

Weekly HOOK patterns normally favour higher Weekly closes (higher Friday)"



DOW S&P Weekly

US markets continue with the move upwards this week helped by Wednesday's HOOK patterns and Friday's higher daily close.

By the look of Friday's trading the S&P should reach the Yearly 50% level next week:- 1038


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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 21st August 2009 recap



    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Today’s price action verifies my view that last Friday in the market was
    the high and that there is a bias to continue down
    over the next 6 weeks until the 4th quarter.

    5-day low breakout and back under the August highs

    Currently SPI is trading above around the Weekly 50% level, which could
    play a support role for a number of days.

    Until the SPI is trading below that level or US markets the same, it looks
    like more consolidation around these highs

    US markets currently have weekly ‘Hook’ patterns, so I’m not factoring
    in a DOWN day on Friday in the US, as HOOK patterns normally favour higher Weekly closes.





    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 20th August 09 recap

    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    After Wednesday's UP move and close above the 5-day 50% level...

    The bias was to continue upwards on Thursday:- random length.

    Price remains below the August highs, but it will be Friday close once again that will determine a breakout or another higher Weekly sell pattern, using Friday's support levels.



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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 20th August 2009 recap


    "Trend guide 4378-84

    Above and the potential to move towards the 5-day highs (R42 points)

    Below the 5-day 50% level, and the bias is to move down towards 4310"

    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern.

    I’ve been bearish since the highs last Friday but I would have expected price trading below 4313 by now.

    However, that down move was reliant on US markets moving down on Wednesday and not up, based on the Weekly 'sell' pattern.

    Today was about making sure that you were trading on the right side of the 5-day filters, either UP or eventually when 4378 failed down.

    The down trend reversal on the SPI will need to see the 5-day lows breakout, which have jumped up to be trading @ 4296



    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 19th August 09 recap

    "I’m bearish in the short-term because of the August high resistance and higher Weekly open ‘sell’

    And confirmed with a 5-day break

    Retest of the 5-day 50% level on Tuesday should continue down, but that will depend on the support levels on Wednesday"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    I've been bearish all week because of last Friday's price action and expectation that US markets would sell down this week.

    However, the continuation down was dependant on the 5-day 50% level (Retest & Reject) on the day after Monday's lows had broken.

    If Tuesday didn't move down, then Wednesday should have continued down and not swing up from Support levels and close back above the 5-day 50% level.

    At this stage the entire Weekly 'sell' pattern into a lower Friday close is now less likely.


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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 19th August 2009

    "At this stage August highs supporting the market and price looks to be moving between the 5-day levels and filters: - range trading

    Above the 5-day 50% level, price looks to be moving up towards 4429

    Below the 5-day 50% level down into 4324."


    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern.

    SPI range trading between the 5-day ranges….

    But my view remains that price action is trying to move down over the next 6 weeks.

    There is a 5-day sell pattern occurring in the S&P, which might have the SPI trading around 4255 by tomorrow




    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 18th August 09 recap

    "Tight 5-day range below the monthly highs has sold off at the start of the new trading week from the 5-day 50% level, and confirmed with a break of the 5-day lows.

    Expectation that US markets are moving down towards the Weekly 50% levels.

    5-day low breakout and price can continue down towards the 5-day lows on Tuesday.

    The ideal pattern for the trend to continue down would be price moving back into the 5-day 50% level and then selling down:- 5-day 50% level resistance"




    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Expectation of further weakness on Tuesday didn't eventuate after testing the 5-day 50% level...

    However, because of the current price action the overall Weekly pattern hasn't changed, until price is trading above the level on Wednesday.

    A retest of the level (today) can continue down the next day from a higher daily, as part of the overall trend.


    Posted by

    SPI Daily 18th August 2009 recap

    "SPI opening around the August highs @ 4313.

    This level can act as support, (monthly breakout) or the SPI is going to continue down and move back towards 4255 and the 5-day lows.

    Trend guide 4328

    Random resistance 5-day 50% level @ 4358"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Today I was bearish on the market, and I did have an expectation that price would continue down into the 5-day lows @ 4255, as part of last Friday's highs.

    However, I acknowlegded that because of the August high breakout, price could actually find support and even continue higher.

    Once price started to above 4328 the market was moving back into the 5-day 50% level @ 4358:- random resistance but no follow through.

    It will be interesting to see how price responds to these August highs, because Tuesday's failure to sell down and continue down from the 5-day 50% level after retesting the Monthly highs could see price moving back upwards.

    That's going to be dependant on how US markets respond to the 5-day low breakout on Tuesday.




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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 17th August 09 recap

    "August high resistance, and I mentioned last week that if US markets failed to break the August highs by Friday then this week would mostly likely reverse back down.

    This is based on the ‘tight’ 5-day range pattern, and then the following week price continues down.

    The first clue will be a break and close below the 5-day lows, and the first target will be the Weekly 50% level"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Start of the new week and sell-off from the 5-day 50% level and breakout of the 5-day lows.

    First target is the Weekly 50% level (random support 1 day)




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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 17th August 2009 recap

    "With last weeks completion into the Yearly 50% level my view is that the SPI has reached the top in the 3rd Quarter, and as per Weekly report will try and move down towards the 4th Quarter 50% level over the next 6 weeks.

    Early trend guide is 4412 with the bias to move down into the 5-day 50% levels"




    SPI futures and 5-day pattern


    SPI moves up into resistance levels and then continues down into the 5-day 50% level and moves back into the breakout pattern from last Thursday.

    I'm bearish on the market since Friday's highs, but it's a bit early to tell if the SPI will continue down.

    This is because the current price action is moving back down to retest last Thursday's 5-day breakout, which often occurs:- 5-day breakout (Thursday) moves up into the next day's 5-day high (Friday) and then reverses down to retest the break (Monday)

    This price action has completed, and a bullish market would continue upwards.

    However, because price has already completed the move in the 3rd Quarter, I would continue to look for short- set-ups at this stage

    Because, if I apply the same theory on Monthly timeframes, August highs can reverse back down and retest the Breakout from July.





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