SPI Daily 17th August 2009 recap

"With last weeks completion into the Yearly 50% level my view is that the SPI has reached the top in the 3rd Quarter, and as per Weekly report will try and move down towards the 4th Quarter 50% level over the next 6 weeks.

Early trend guide is 4412 with the bias to move down into the 5-day 50% levels"





SPI futures and 5-day pattern


SPI moves up into resistance levels and then continues down into the 5-day 50% level and moves back into the breakout pattern from last Thursday.

I'm bearish on the market since Friday's highs, but it's a bit early to tell if the SPI will continue down.

This is because the current price action is moving back down to retest last Thursday's 5-day breakout, which often occurs:- 5-day breakout (Thursday) moves up into the next day's 5-day high (Friday) and then reverses down to retest the break (Monday)

This price action has completed, and a bullish market would continue upwards.

However, because price has already completed the move in the 3rd Quarter, I would continue to look for short- set-ups at this stage

Because, if I apply the same theory on Monthly timeframes, August highs can reverse back down and retest the Breakout from July.





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