Weekly Index Reports now available (1st December 2007)

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FOREX REPORT 30th Nov GBP Part 2

The only ‘weaker’ pattern emerging at this stage is the Weekly drops, which if Friday continues down breaking the 3-day cycle, the December trend can easily change…Weekly Drops at this stage could send the market down into a lower Weekly close.

Friday:- 5-day 50% level along with 90 pip spiral top is going to define the trend (previous report)



GBP has followed the Forward drops down from a 90-pip spiral point.

The most logical area to be trying to short or trade the currency would have been from the 90-pip spiral top, along with the ‘forewarning' pattern of further weakness on Friday, as the previous report suggest, which is also a text-book trading set-up found in the book.

The move down wasn’t a very large trending down day but it’s usual 2-bar 90 pip range. This is why I prefer the GBP/USD over many currencies because of the range and movement each day.

A very bearish pattern would have moved much lower on Friday towards the November lows again, and then continue down next week, as it moves under the December 50% level.

However at this stage, the lower Weekly open, along with a major support level (December 50% level) has a much greater chance of finding support and then continuing higher with the over all trend towards December highs.

US Index Report 30th Nov part 2

Friday pushed upwards but has stalled at the December 50% levels.

When we look at the range between these current highs and the 3-day lows (circled), it shows that the US markets are hitting major resistance, and it probably won't continue higher until there has been a 2-day reversal or stall.

This would normally come back to the Weekly 50% level next week, before any new trend above the December 50% level will occur.

After the initial break of the 3-day cycle, price hasn't come back and tested the breakout zone, or move into a 2-day stalling period....."shorting opportunites next week:- Higher Weekly open and expectation of a 2-day stall/reversal."


Read Full Weekly report later.

US Index Report 30th November 2007

DOW and ES-minis

US markets have continued to swing back towards the December 50% level.

The breakout on Wednesday and confirmation of the trend above the Weekly 50% level will most likely push further and will follow the weekly trend higher into Friday.

We have already seen the reaction to the markets in Australia on the last day of the Month, as prices rise upwards from a lower weekly open and into a higher weekly close (better shorting potential next week:- day traders)


DOW and ES-minis



Yesterday I wanted the US markets to move in either direction so that a trade could be made:- Short resistance or Buy support.

The only market that aligned was the ES-minis, with support off the Weekly 50% level.

This price pattern is shown throughout the book, the reversal patterns and support is verified by the daily close above and re-test of support to confirm the UP move. However most of the UP move has continued overnight in US markets and traders now find themselves around resistance.

A higher open on Friday will naturally try and fade the move down, but I think any move down on Friday is going to be short-lived and will probably try and move upwards in Friday’s levels and maybe beyond.

There might not be much resistance on US markets on Friday, but there is major resistance next week. (Weekly report out tomorrow)

Below Thursday's Resistance and expectation the market is pushing lower.

Above Thursday's resistance and expectation of a higher Friday close, and much better shorting opportunites next week:- Higher Weekly open and expectation of a 2-day stall/reversal.

FOREX REPORT 30th November GBP/USD

GBP-USD has moved in a 2-week sideway pattern since finding support around the November 50% levels.

Today is the last day of the month and December is going to decide whether the GBP will continue upwards to make higher high in this month, or break and head down towards the lower channels.

The currency is supported in a 3-day BUY cycle, and the overall trends remain bullish. The only ‘weaker’ pattern emerging at this stage is the Weekly drops, which if Friday continues down breaking the 3-day cycle, the December trend can easily change.

Intra-day:-

"GBP rising upwards from the November 50% level, but at this stage it looks more like it's consolidating into the end of the week and month with an UP bias... The best trades are occurring around 90 point spiral bottoms, and yesterday's trade was a perfect example of using an 90 point spiral top along with the 5-day 50% level to trade upwards. (previous report)"

This week I was using the 5-day 50% level as a support level and confirmed the trade with .90 pip spiral point.

However this changed yesterday, and Weekly Drops at this stage could send the market down into a lower Weekly close.

There is still major support in the GBP, but traders shouldn’t fight any down trend on Friday if the 3-day lows break…

Friday:- 5-day 50% level along with 90 pip spiral top is going to define the trend or continuation of the UP trend on Friday

SPI report 30th Nov part 6

12:02

SPI completing the 2nd r44 point range @ 6540.

A breakout of the 3-day highs today confirms the change of cycles and confirms the November 50% levels as valid support zones.

After 6540 completes:- Friday has a random length, the trend can easily continue higher especially if US markets move higher on Friday.

However after a large double Range move so early in the day, this upper range would need to take a breather before continuing higher.

High risk trading to be trying to short the market today, even around these levels.

Full Weekly report

SPI report 30th Nov part 5

11:22

Exit last @ double R22 @ 6495 (no more trades today)

After the R44 completion @ 6500 the trading day can consolidate, as it waits for the start of December (closes below December 50%)

Or a Bullish move would continue higher into a 2nd 44 point range upwards closing above the 3-day highs and changing the daily cycles from ‘Sell to BUY’

Full Weekly report tomorrow.

SPI report 30th Nov part 4

10:52am

Partial exit 6474 (entry 6457) & holding

(breakeven entry stop)

Target 44 point up (high Risk)

SPI report 30th Nov part 3

10:25

SPI is trading below the Weekly 50% level and Risk of 6476, and price resumes the down trend

This price action is the gap fill of 6450 I was looking for yesterday to complete.

I was hoping that the Market would open around 6511 to give a much better opportunity to short the market again into these levels.

Around 6456 completes a double R44 range which often can provide a 22 point up swing (short-term intraday trading), but most of the swings in the market this week are 87 points therefore a move to 6433 is not out of the question....

Next best set-up will be on Monday

SPI report 30th Nov part 2

9:53am

Much lower open:- Risk level is 6476, yesterdays Spiral point.

Above it and rising upwards and expectation to complete the R44 range @ 6511

Partial Exit 6488 (r22 yesterday's low) Entry 6480

Breakeven Dollar Stop.

A higher move towards 6511 has less reason to reverse back down from a higher Spiral point @ 6511 (holding last into close)

Below 6476 and expectation lower gaps will fill:- if stopped out I won't trade again today

SPI Report 30th November 2007

Last day of the trading month and the December 50% level next week will define the trend for the rest of 2007.

At this stage it has struggled to move higher than this level, and how Friday trades and closes will have a big bearing on next week ( Weekly report tomorrow)

We have seen the November 50% levels support the market, but it has struggled to rise and close above the 3-day highs.

Yesterday's trading was a good 'short' set-up:- a higher open and 'gap' trading.

The movement down closed the gap @ 6468, aligned with a perfect 44 point range and was supported at the Weekly 50% level @ 6477.

Today has all the reason to continue higher...



However:- Today isn't a high probability trade. Friday is opening around the top spiral-points of both Ranges, this is high risk trading to be going long once again around the highs. Ideally if the R87 had completed the lower gap @ 6450 and rising from a lower R87 spiral point then there is more of a reason to be trading longs.

Risk:- 6511 (R44 spiral top)

Above it and expectation is that the market is moving upwards a minimum of 44 points and following the 5-day range and breakout of the 3-day cycle.

Below it and expectation that the Spiral top, along with the December 50% level, and 3-day cycle is pushing the market down once again into the R44 range.

Yesterday I was confident on shorting the market because of the way the 5-day range and 'gap' trading gives traders the high-probability of 'gap-closure.'

Today it's not the case:- it's an each way bet on the direction of the market today.

No major set-up for today.

US Index report 29th Nov part 2

DOW and ES intraday:-

Both markets are consolidating, with ES currently finding support @ the Weekly 50% level.

I would have liked more range movement upwards earlier in the day and then for prices to come down from resistance and re-test the support levels.

This would have been part of the 'stalling' day after the change of the 3-day cycle.

At this stage of the day, any late movement either way will hopefully give a better set-up on Friday.

Full Report later...

US Index report 29th November 2007

US markets supported around the November lows with the expectation that both markets would rise up from these levels and head back towards the December 50% level before the next trend develops.

A bullish market for the rest of this month will begin a move back to the November 50% levels where major resistance resides for the rest of this month.



ES-minis:-

Breakout of the 3-day highs and Weekly 50% level is the first sign that a major bottom has been set.

I expect the trend to continue, but I would like to see a retest of the breakout level before a late rally upwards into Friday…

Thursday resistance the previous Weekly 50% level @ 1486



DOW…

Exact same expectation:- preferably a re-test of the breakout zone before the trend continues.

In the SPI today we saw a higher open and move down from open into Weekly 50% level. This level had been resistance for a number weeks, and today it became support. So the exact same scenario could unfold in US markets…

Dilernia Principle:- A breakout of the 3-day cycle and the expectation that the market will rotate back down and re-test the break before the trend continues.

If this occurs then support should be verified on Thursday and continue higher on Friday depending on early price action in the US markets.



The Breakout of the Daily channels and the market will remain outside these levels for the rest of the day. However any break of the 3-day highs and Weekly 50% level will normally rotate back down into the same levels the next day to verify support before the trend continues. (earlier report)

Ideally I would prefer the US markets to move upwards hit the daily channel highs and then head down into the Weekly 50% levels. These channel highs align with the previous Weekly 50% level where I think Thursday Resistance will be.

The same thing occur in the SPI today:- a Higher open and sell down from 5-day highs.

Day traders:-

Look for resistance and trade down into support.
Look for support and trade up into resistance.

SPI Report 29th Nov 2007 part 4

11:55am

Push down from the 3-day highs and into the Weekly 50% level. This also matches a perfect 44 point range.

I'm not interested in trading longs today. It was trade the gap down and exit shorts.

Personally I think it will fill lower gaps, and provide better longs tomorrow.

Neutral @ 6478 exit all shorts.

Next trade tomorrow.

SPI Report 29th Nov 2007 part 3

11:17 am

So far so good:- the upswing from today's lows and push back down from R22 highs is an ideal set-up for a continuation down today

re-entered on R22 swing top @ 6505 and partial exit @ 6491.

Stops now moved to breakeven from entry @ 6517...

The longer it consolidates around these highs without pushing lower, the more likely there could be a push and close above the 3-day highs today...

Trend and Risk level the Dilernia pivot high @ 6514, so whilst it's below this, then the only view I have is a push down...

SPI Report 29th Nov 2007 part 2

10:00am

Higher open and expectation of downside gap fill (6517 entry)

Not trading any longs today:- partial exit (6494)

Next 6478 (r44) and hold last into Gap or 87 points down….

Stops above 6527 (-5-day highs)

Weekly 50% level @ 6477 matches R44 points down

SPI Report 29th November 2007

Please click and Read the Australian Index SPI (Update) Weekly Report before proceeding with the Daily Report..



The rest of the week is simply going to be defined by the 3-day high @ 6512.

This move back towards the 3-day high is what I was looking for to happen yesterday. I’ve been bullish this week because of the expectation that the closer it gets to December, the more likely the market will move back towards the 50% level.




Today:- Risk 6512 (3-day highs)

Above the highs and it’s a trending day upwards (don’t short it)

But when we look at probability patterns there are gaps in the market on the R87. I don’t want to be trading longs at these highs on the open unless the downside gaps are filled.

Statistically:- not only a 44 point move but also the gap. Gap trading not only occurs from lower opens, but also from higher opens:- therefore my expectation is the gaps need to be filled before the overall trend can continue.

Scenario:- I respect the market and trading above 6512, but I won’t be buying longs on open because of the Gap….

The best longs not only occur from R44 lows, which would be my ideal BUY zone, but today I would need to see the Gap of 6450 close.

If the market settles above 6512 on open and begins to consolidate above it for a number of hours, only then would I contemplate going long today…

US Report 28 November part 2

This is what I wanted to see happen on Global markets, November levels support the markets and begin the swing back towards the December 50% level before the next trend develops.

This move on US markets above the 3-day highs and Weekly 50% level is the first sign that a major bottom has been set, but only for November. Any follow through is going to be determined by next month's levels.



The Breakout of the Daily channels and the market will remain outside these levels for the rest of the day. However any break of the 3-day highs and Weekly 50% level will normally rotate back down into the same levels the next day to verify support before the trend continues.

Full report later....

US report 28 November 2007

DOW and ES-minis


US markets consolidating around the November lows.

I still have the same view that these November lows will support both markets until the end of the month when Market Dynamics shift and new levels come into play to start the next monthly trend in December.

Above the December 50% level and the trend is up. Below the December 50% level and the trend is down and following the Market path of December lows.




Tuesday was an inside UP day, and today opens around the middle of the 5-day range.

Wednesday:- Trading the middle of the 5-day range is often choppy but it should give clarity of which direction the market wants to go.

Keep in mind the similar price action that occurred on the SPI today:- A higher Daily close on Tuesday has the potential of rotating down into Daily Channels lows.

DOW is above the 5-day 50% level, ES-minis is below.

No set-up for Wednesday.

Support Channel lows.

SPI Report 28th Nov part 6

With US markets selling off on Monday, there is the potential that the Australian Market could make a move down towards 6251 and the Quarterly 50% level on any further weakness. Personally I would rather see the next wave down occurring from December 50% levels, than just selling off this week.

The R87 has a 'gap' open, normally the market will move upwards into the gap. It doesn't favour selling. A lower open on 'gaps' will normally push upwards into the R87 gap (yesterday’s morning report)

13:45pm

Yesterday played that role of filling the gaps on the way upwards on Tuesday, and today it’s playing the role of following the market trend defined by the 3-day cycles and Weekly Trend:- DOWN

Price is now back into Major support at the November 50% levels, and further weakness is down towards 6251 and then proceeding lower into December lows.

Ideally I would still like to see consolidation into the end of the trading week, providing the better opportunity for short-trading down into the lower levels from December 50% levels, than this week.

No LONG trading today around the lows today, see how it closes today before trading once again, as the potential to follow the weekly trend lower can occur:- higher daily close (Tuesday) followed by a higher daily open and moving down on Wednesday

Weekly Dynamics are 6273 (channel lows)

US markets still consolidating around major November low support zones.

If November 50% level @ 6363 continues to hold for this month, this same level won't be valid for support in December.

Support disappears as Time moves forward.

Trend Direction defined by December 50% next week

FOREX REPORT 28th November GBP/USD

GBP currently trading in a sideways pattern waiting for current month to end and the new month to begin before any new trend develops.

The best trades are occuring around 90 point spiral bottoms, and yesterday's trade was a perfect example of using an 90 point spiral top along with the 5-day 50% level to trade upwards. No set-ups for Tuesday unless the market comes back down 90 pips and aligns with the 5-day 50% level... Yesterday's report


Price rotated down on Tuesday, and once again supported at the 5-day 50% level, and a 90-pip low.

Traders can use the 90 pip spiral point and look for .46 and 90 pip moves on Wednesday.

Risk trading longs below Tuesday's lows.

SPI Report 28th Nov part 5

10:55am

I had two set-ups today.

Trade the move down from yesterday's Spiral point, and then trade longs today from the R44 Spiral point low and 5-day 50% level upwards.

The push down into the previous R44 range high @ 6415 and now consolidating around the 5-day 50% level, looks like a choppy trading day that can go either way.

Stopped on 3rd trade @ 6419, taking rest of the day off

SPI Report 28th Nov part 4

10:28am

Re-entered longs @ R44 spiral low confirmed with the 5-day 50% level....

Again long for R22 upswing and hold into R44 high, and hopefully this time it continues upwards.

Stops below today's lows after R22 upswing and won't trade again today if stopped out..

Daily range Random length as it's trading around the 5-day 50% level...

SPI report 28th Nov part 3

10:15am

Partial exit R22 up @6448

Stops below 6425

Next exit 42 points upside and holding into end of the day...

Market currently trading around 5-day 50% level so market remains choppy and each way bet today on direction...

SPI Report 28th Nov part 2

“Because yesterday is a higher spiral point I favour price moving down on open and completing the R44 range, which is going to be a spiral point and align with the 5-day 50% level, which has already been a support zone this week....(premium report)”

Those shorts exit around 6428…


10:05


Rising upwards from 6425 and into a 44 point range high from today's lows:- I don’t have a view for the rest of the trading day if the R44 upswing takes place.

It can either stall and consolidate for the rest of the day, or it can continue higher back towards the 3-day highs once again @ 6512

Not shorting around R44 tops, but running last long contract open into close with stops below 6425...

SPI Report 28th Nov 2007

SPI remains supported around the November 50% level, and looks range bound with an UP bias until the end of the Month, and new Dynamic levels are defined for December

Major support around the monthly 50% levels, however the intermediate timeframes are still in a downtrend ( below 3-day highs and weekly 50% level)

All Gaps on the daily ranges have now closed...

Fridays 6383
Tuesday 6425
and Mondays 6468

Wednesday:- opening in the middle of the 5-day range and it can go either way, however the risk level will be defined by the completion of yesterday's 44 point range for the first Spiral point to be formed.

If it moves upward on open it will be 6478 which aligns with the Weekly 50% level (resistance)

If it moves down into 6425 it aligns with the 5-day 50% (support)

Don't trade against the trend after the first spiral point is formed (Risk)

Premium report to follow...

US report 27th November Part 3

"Above the 5-day 50% level, and look for resistance around yesterday’s 5-day 50% level." (morning report)



'DOW' moved upwards from the earlier report hitting the previous 5-day 50% level and moving back down, whilst 'ES' has remained below the current 50% level and continues to follow the overall trend down towards lower channels on Wednesday.

Full Report later....

US report 27th November Part 2

US traders shorting from the 5-day 50% level with the expectation of the market moving down towards the lows, partial exit at these levels, and hold for the completion down.

These levels are also supprt zones:-

Don't trade longs below them.

US report 27th November 2007

DOW and ES-minis

The Weekly charts below show both US markets heading down towards the November lows calculated using the Weekly timeframes.

I’ve already pointed out in the Weekly report that my expectation is a 2nd wave sell-off pattern towards the December lows, however the best set-up would be a swing from the November lows and then move upwards into the end of this month, for the 2nd wave down to evenutate from the December 50% levels.



Monday was a large trending down-day, and moving into the Weekly lows, where the ES found buying support.

My Expectation was for a down-day on Monday, but I didn’t expect such a large move down, however my expectation is for an UP day on Tuesday breaking the 5-day 50% level and then heading upward towards the 3-day highs once again.




Tuesday:- 5-day 50% level is going to define the trend.

A push lower would be towards the 5-day dynamic lows in both markets, where major support would verify a swing back above the 5-day 50% level.

Don’t trade longs below blue channels.

Above the 5-day 50% level, and look for resistance around yesterday’s 5-day 50% level.

Day traders:- use levels in the intra-day chart to manage positions.

Tuesday was my BUY day:- However that set-up could happen from lower prices, or just move back above the 5-day 50% level and continue higher.

Below the 5-day 50% level and expectation is price is heading towards daily lower channels, as shown in above chart

SPI Report 27th Nov part 6

14:20pm

Spi rallied into previous gap @ 6468..

Partial exit R22 @ 6448 (stop 6465 Entry)

Next Exit zone is double R22 range @ 6433 on the downside and exit for today:- (expectation of R44 reversal)

This price action today and completed Gap closure 3-ways today:-

Friday's gap @ 6383

Tuesday's gap @ 6425

Monday's gap @ 6468

Hopefully tomorrow the markets will begin to settle and follow the weekly trend of a lower open and moving upwards towards December 50% levels....

SPI Report 27th Nov part 5

13:52

High Probability pattern completed with R44 high and Gap closure @ 6425

There was 1 pattern I was looking for today, and this was the pattern.

The remainder of the day has now three scenarios (SPI part 2), which I prefer to let the day go by and trade again tomorrow.

Next Trade US markets Tuesday

SPI Report 27th Nov part 4

13:33

Partial exit @ 6396 next exit 6411 and take the day off.

Stops now at breakeven from entry.... won't trade again today if stopped out.


Note: 6390 pivot won't appear until the first 44 point range completes.

FOREX Report 27th Nov 2007

GBP/USD



GBP rising upwards from the November 50% level, but at this stage it looks more like it's consolidating into the end of the week and month with an UP bias.



The best trades are occuring around 90 point spiral bottoms, and yesterday's trade was a perfect example of using an 90 point spiral top along with the 5-day 50% level to trade upwards.

No set-ups for Tuesday unless the market comes back down 90 pips and aligns with the 5-day 50% level...

SPI Report 27th Nov 2007 part 3

12:55

How often has this pattern appeared on ‘gap’ trading….

Double R22 range up move, reversal back down into another R22 low and swing back upwards into another R22 top until it completes the R44 move upwards…..

Until it moves into an R44 spiral-top I favour trading longs, but I understand that the overall trend is bearish, but currently supported around higher timeframe 50% levels. I won't be trading shorts today because it hasn't completed the Spiral top,

re-entry 6379 partial exit will be @ 6396 R22 (stops below todays lows) and holding for R44

SPI Report 27th Nov 2007 part 2

Gap Trading:- Lower open and expectation for market to move into gap closure @6425. Spiral top 44 point highs @ 6414-6424 and longs are open to Risk.

11:00am

Risk level is now 6390 (pivot) for the rest of the trading day.

Yesterday’s gap filled @ 6383.

I don’t have a view for the rest of the day other than this lower open filling the gap on the upside.

Three scenarios for the rest of the trading day.

1. Continuation upwards into another R87 spiral top, this is confirmed with major support around the higher timeframe November 50% levels, and then continuation upwards for the rest of the week, as it moves towards the December 50% level. (Weekly Report)

2. Stalling day confirmed with major higher timeframe support levels and a consolidating day of 44-point swings after Spiral top confirmed

3. Gap filled and R44 Spiral top reversing back down and remaining below 6390 today and heading lower towards 6328 and 5-day lows.

See how the rest of the day plays out.

Partial exit 6402 (double R22 top)

SPI Report 27th Nov 2007

Yesterday followed the price pattern that we have been seeing for a number of weeks now:- the rotation back towards the 3-day highs and Weekly 50% level before the trend continues down.

Monday's Price pattern was what I was looking for to happen on Tuesday this week from a lower Daily open. We have the lower Daily open today, however the price pattern has already completed.

With US markets selling off on Monday, there is the potential that the Australian Market could make a move down towards 6251 and the Quarterly 50% level on any further weakness.

Personally I would rather see the next wave down occurring from December 50% levels, than just selling off this week.

Today:- Risk is going to be 6425



The R87 has a 'gap' open, normally the market will move upwards into the gap. It doesn't favour selling from open, however I do expect that 6425 is going to play a resistance zone today.

It's going to depend on where the market opens...

A lower open on 'gaps' will normally push upwards into the R87 gap or an R44 spiral top.

A higher open and gap closure and the potential for a downtrending day is a possibility as it follows the 5-day dynamic range...

Premium report to follow...

US report 26th Nov 2007 part 3

DOW and ES intra-day...

I was looking for a down day on Monday, but I didn't expect such a move down into the 5-day lows again.

Lower Daily close would naturally try and rotate upwards on Tuesday, but the strength of the trend is going to be defined by the 5-day 50% level on Tuesday...

Full report later...

US report 26th Nov 2007 part 2

US markets are still defined by the 3-day highs and Weekly 50% level, and this push lower on Monday is what has been happening on most Mondays over the past few week...

"Mondays:- Each week has seen Monday push lower, and if any up move in the markets is going to happen it happens on Tuesday. If this is going to do the same then the 3-day highs (blue channels) is going to push prices lower (random length-stalling day)

(Lower Daily close followed by an UP move from a lower Daily open the next day.(Weekend Report)"

The Lower Daily close and Tuesday's 5-day 50% level is going to be the guide on any reversal back towards Monday's highs once again.

A break below last week's lows and market path is towards the Weekly lows...

Full report later..

US report 26th November 2007

DOW and ES-minis

US markets rotating upwards from November lows and heading towards the 3-day and Weekly 50% levels. (follow from Weekly report)

Just like what has happened on the SPI today, you don't want to try and fight the trend if markets are trading above certain levels. (Weekly 50%)



A higher open on Monday will probably try and fade the open down. Any push down would normally occur from the Monday (blue Channel highs).

Any rotation back would be towards the 5-day 50% level and exit.

Day traders look for 45-51 point moves on DOW and 4.25 moves on ES (double Ranges) if short-trading.

Don't short above 3-day highs.