SPI Trading 19th September 2008 recap

"Yesterday the XJO hit the 2008 lows @ 4538, along with US markets hitting their Yearly lows, and in my opinion global markets have hit their lows for 2008

Today:- it's all about 4772.

Below and we will probably push back down into the September lows @ 4701.

Above and it's heading towards the 5-day highs. Not sure if it's going there today, but by Sycom close it could.

Ideally a 44 point reveresal down into the brown filter :- random support, for a continued late rally:- R44 low"

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SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

SPI opened above 4772 and continued with the UP bias into the close, forming a 44 point reversal and continued up move.

Weekly report out tomorrow




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    S&P (e-mini) DOW 18th Sept 08 Recap

    "US markets have reached their Yearly and Quarterly lows, and I can't see too much more downside in Global markets.

    Yesterday:- breakout of the Yellow channel forms a 2-day sell pattern.

    Therefore expectation that the 5-day 50% level is resistance, and can push lower into Thursday's lows.

    If Thursday can bounce off those lows and close higher, then Friday's support should be use to continue to trade upwards"

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    S&P Daily and 5-day pattern

    Even though US markets had reached their Yearly lows on Wednesday, there was still a 2-day 'sell' pattern to play out, pushing Thursday down into support.

    Weekly report out this week, but at this stage the 2008 lows of global markets have been reached, and in my opinion completed.

    However I can't see a major 3-month rally like when the March lows hit.

    It would probably flop around these lower levels over then next 3-weeks building a support base before any 'slow' rotation upwards in the next Quarter in Monthly step formation to close out 2008 at higher prices than where we are today.


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    SPI Trading 18th September 2008 recap

    "In the mean time, financials have the biggest weighting in our Index, and until Financials bottom out, which could be around 4000 on the Financial index, this puts the SPI around the lower levels of the yearly lows.

    Today:- the SPI will be opening around the September lows @ 4701, but I think this week will end up around 4570."

    September 16th Premium Report



    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Premium Report:- '9:59'

    " I can't remember seeing the SPOT and Premium contracts at 100 points difference on the day of expiry...

    Keep an eye on the December contracts and where the September contracts close, because there could be a meeting of price sometime today... and I have a feeling they will push the market down into the close to match prices at least @ 4570."

    SPI:- Day of expiry and market ends up down into a low of 4577 on December futures, with a late 'HOOK', above the 5-day lows sending the market higher.

    Overall Market:- I can't see much more downside in this Quarter.

    US markets are trading around their Yearly lows.

    BHP is trading and being supported above it's Primary 50% level @ 34.46, even though I want BHP to move lower in this Quarter, and Banks could end up finding lows tomorrow

    Note:- I can't see a major 3-month rally like when the March lows hit.

    It would probably flop around these lower levels over then next 3-weeks building a support base before any 'slow' rotation upwards in the next Quarter in Monthly step formation to close out 2008 at higher prices than where we are today.

    Keep in mind that price is trading below September lows, and not trading above support.


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    DOW S&P Trading 17th September 2008 recap

    "5-day 50% level along with support....

    Ideally I would like to see price move back down into support, but after that there isn't any expectation on the rest of today.

    either support holds and moves into a sideways pattern...

    or it breaks, and we once again move into a 2-day sell pattern:- down into 1158"

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    S&P Daily and 5-day pattern

    The 5-day pattern tells the story on Wednesday, completing my view of the S&P moving down into 1158.

    I don't have any more lower moves for S&P in 2008, sure the market can go lower especially with a shift in levels in the next Quarter, but at this stage we are getting close to a bottom in 2008.

    The bottom will be verified once price is trading above the forward Monthly 50% level...


    Posted by

    SPI Trading 17th September 2008 recap



    SPI 16:05 Recap

    SPI opened above the 5-day 50% level @ 4803 and moved up into July's lows @ 4836.

    July's lows formed resistance forming an R44 Hook, back under the 5-day 50% level, pushing the spi down into 4762.

    Once the next r44 closed below 4762, then the bias was to move back down into September lows @ 4701 once again

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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) DOW 16th Sept 08 Recap

    "US markets are getting close to their 2008 Yearly lows:- 1158-73

    Ideally I would like to see these lower levels reached, and then look for a confirming up move in October 2008.

    Yesterday was about support pushing US markets back up into the 5-day 50% level and then continue down on Monday:- 2nd day 'sell pattern'

    Tuesday:- I would like to see Tuesday's lows reach.

    Breakout of Monday's lows and 5-day 50% level is resistance on the way down.

    Ideally a test of the 5-day 50% level early Trading on Tuesday:- Tuesday's lows Random support"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    S&P trading around the Yearly lows for 2008, which was my down target this year.

    For any valid support to be confirmed price will then have to be trading above the 50% level in October, and until then two weeks is a long time in these markets.

    S&P and other US markets pushed lower on Tuesday hitting the 5-day lows and reversing back up into the 5-day 50% level.

    Posted by

    SPI Trading 16th September 2008 recap

    "There is not much more I can say than trade the 5-day levels.

    On the upside:- 5-day low @ 4697 along with September monthly lows could support the market, but I can't see higher prices than 4758 (Yesterday's 5-day lows)"

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    SPI 16:20 Recap..........Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI found support around the 5-day lows and September lows today, which was extremely choppy today until a late rally sent the SPI back towards 5758 and higher...


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    S&P (e-mini) DOW 15th Sept 08 Recap

    "Monday is all about support, and the S&P will be opening right on support (at this stage).

    Because Sunday is the first day of the breakout of the Yellow channel, then Monday has an expectation that there is going to be a 2nd down day.

    Often a 2nd down day aligns with the 5-day 50% level.

    If this is the case, then there could be early support on US markets into the 5-day 50% levels, but I'd be surprised to see higher prices...:- 50% level rejection.

    Below support and it's a random length, but markets are coming down towards September's lows,as shown in the Weekly report"

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    S&P Daily and 5-day pattern

    S&P was bang on the money on Monday.

    Rising up from support and back into the 5-day 50% level, and then a continuation down on Monday, as part of the 2nd day sell.

    S&P is now starting to get down to my 2008 yearly low target of1158-73.

    These levels are what I wanted to see reached before any 3-month counter-trend UP move begins, which will be verified in the next Quarter.

    Posted by

    SPI Trading 15th September 2008 recap

    "Note:- I wrote the Premium report before 7am, since then US markets have opened down 300 points, which I gather has something to do with the Lehman brothers facing bankruptcy.

    It's obvious that the above SPI report will be thrown out on today's open. "



    SPI Recap 16:20


    SPI gapped down rallied into a double R44 range into the 5-day channel (blue), and then continued down into the Weekly lows finding support


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