Weekly Index Report Update:- 9th February 2008
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E-mini Trading 8th February part 3
E-mini supported around 2-day SD channel lows on Friday...Expectation price would come down and test this level on Friday.... and US markets are following a 2-day stalling pattern around the Weekly lows....
The Weekly levels for the rest of February are going to be important, because of the view that US markets are consolidating around Quarterly lows (Major Support), and February 50% ( resistance)
Full Weekly Report later....
DOW Trading 8th February 2008 part 2
DOW coming into the last 2 hours of trading, and it's following a 'top-to-bottom' trading week...Friday's trading was about first coming down testing 12184... (2-day SD Channel)
Price moved upwards from 12184 it's primary range of 95 points, before reversing back down following the Weekly Bar of closing on it's lows (top-to-bottom)
1 bar up, 2x 95 bars down, and 1x 95 bar upwards.....Even though price is re-testing the Weekly .618 @ 12109 and is currently supporting it, whilst price is trading below the 2-day SD channel, trading longs are open to risk. Because a break of 12109 and easily move much lower into Friday's close.
Full Weekly report Later....
Weekly levels will be important next week because of the expectation of price consolidating around Quarterly Lows..... (Major Support), and February 50% level (Resistance)
SPI Trading 8th February 2008 RECAP
RECAP:-Today's trading was all about price trading in relation to the 5-day 50% level, the Weekly 50% level, and the Dilernia Pivot.
Because Price didn't test the Pivot early in the Day, and Price trading below the 5-day 50% level, the opposite occured today compared to the previous two Friday's, with a late push down into 5585...
Note: Because Price has tested this level, we use this level to trade longs next Week, or it could just open higher based on US markets moving higher (US report below)
DOW E-mini 8th February 2008
US markets reversed off Weekly .618 and moved in a 1 day counter-trend UP move....Whenever Price closes below the 3-day cycle lows, like it did on Wednesday, there is a probability 'move' of a 2-day rotation upwards.
Thursday was the first, but I would have liked the Thursday reversal to HOOK back inside the Weekly 50% levels, for the 2nd day to continue upwards, which both markets failed to do.
Friday:- Two patterns can play out
A top-to-bottom trading Week with price closing on their lows on Friday. This could happen because of the failure of ES to close above the 5-day 50% level...
5-day 50% level failure and continuation of the overall Weekly Trends DOWN..
2nd day up move and I would like price to test the 2-day SD channel lows on Friday and then move higher into close:- 3-day high
Therefore SUPPORT or Breakout in both markets are :-
12184 (DOW)
1324 (E-mini)
SPI Trading 8th February 2008 part 5
14:20SPI rising upwards from a spiral bottom @ 5612 and moving back up into an resistance zone based on 5639 and the R44 low Reversal.....
My afternoon trading set-up was based on the SPI moving down into an R44 low and rising upwards from around 14:36...
At this stage it doesn't look like it's doing it......
I won't be trading longs unless it hits an R44 low, and is rising upwards from 14:36, even though the expectation that price could rise towards the 5-day 50% level.
The entire market Dynamics is completely different to the previous two Fridays
I've taken a 1 lot short @ 5635 (stops) 5642 looking for an R44 down move.....
I will cover if not reached target by 14:36.....
If stopped out I won't trade again, as price has an each way:- 5-day 50% level or 5585...
Note: R87 down @ 5595
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
14:36 close position @ 5631
No more trades until Next week
FOREX GBP/USD 8th February 2008
GBP trading around the Quarterly lows....Yesterday confirmed the overall down trend with the breakout on the Weekly low, and with the expectation that price is moving down into 1.9338....
And then into February lows next week..
Resistance: -Thursday low breakout @ 1.9530
Support :- Friday low (higher Risk)
Expectation price will test Friday lows, which match the Weekly levels.
Ideally the best set-up would be a reversal upwards on Friday, re-test the 5-day 50% level and then trade down into Friday....
SPI Trading 8th February 2008 part 4
11:20SPI stalling around the highs, and moving into a consolidation phase...with the potential of further weakness....5585
I'm nuetral until then (exit 5641)
My next trade will be around will around 14:36....
I won't be going long around 14:36 if it's an R44 spiral high.....
SPI Trading 8th February 2008 part 3
10:47amSPI has gone all the way up into the Weekly 50% level and stalled, without testing the Pivot....
At this stage I favour an R44 reversal into 5639... after that it has a random outcome....
Can swing off the spiral lows, or move back down into 5585....
Entry 5664 partial exit 5658
(breakeven stop) @ 5670
Target 5640.... and then see how price reacts around R44 low, but potential to move back down and test Pivot...
SPI Trading 8th February 2008 part 2
10:13amSPI moving up on open and following the expectant move back towards the 5-day 50% levels....
Area of interest is 5668 (Weekly 50%)
The difference between the last two rallies was that Price tested the Dilernia Pivot, and traded below it for a short-period of time before moving upwards...
Today it hasn't, and this is something I would like to see happen, therefore there is an expectation that price would come back down and test it before continuing higher...
No positions Yet
SPI Trading 8th February 2008
SPI Trading within the Range band of the Monthly 50% level of February and the Quarterly lows...Expectation that the SPI will consolidate between these bands for the rest of the month and into March.....
Higher Weekly open and push back down (top-to-bottom) trading week so far this week, as Price follows the overall higher timeframes.
But at this stage, I favour a Top-to Middle close:- Weekly close in the middle of the 5-day range on Friday...
If Price is going to head down into February lows, I would think that next week is more likely based using the Weekly 50% level, because of the potential 2-day reversal UPwards in US markets...
The 87 point range and Rally on the two previous Fridays have occured from the previous Thursday's HOOK, and if we subscribe to repeating patterns then Friday look's like it's going to follow a similar path as the previous two Fridays....
"Tomorrow is Friday:- the past two Friday's have had massive rallies back towards the highs. The Daily-Trend has been defined by the Dilernia Pivot. the 5-day 50% level, and a 2nd UP move occuring around 14:36....
I will look to see if this pattern is going to play out again, because the last two Friday's I've missed the open, only to make some money in the latter part of the day.Therefore for position traders the 5-day 50% level is going to be important along with the Dilernia Pivot...." (Yesterday's RECAP report)"
The Difference between today and the past two Friday's is the open in relation to the 5-day 50% level:- this time it's below....
My view is we are going up, but this time the view is limited to the 5-day 50% level and as far as the 'gap' @ 5752...
As long as Price remains above the Dilernia Pivot @ 5586 that's the only view I have...
Below that, and the Weekly timeframe is closing on a lower Friday....
DOW E-mini 7th February 2008 part 8
US markets Reversed off Weekly .618 level and have moved in a 1 day counter-trend move back towards the 5-day 50% level...The E-mini moved above the 2-day SD closing above it, whilst the DOW failed to remain above.....
Full Report later on whether US markets move into a 2nd day reversal, or follow a similar pattern as GBP.....
DOW E-mini 7th February 2008 part 2
US markets have moved down hitting the Weekly .618 , however still trading below the 3-day lows....As per previous report, it depends on how much follow through there is on Thursday Support around these levels, because if there is a lack of buying support here, Friday can play out a similar pattern as GBP/USD, with a break-down on Friday (top-to-bottom Week)
Price needs to be confirmed with break above the 2-day SD...
FOREX GBP/USD 7th February 08 part 4
GBP continues the break on Thursday, hitting the 100% Weekly Range, with further weakness down into the 3-week lows....probably on Friday...
Resistance Thursday Breakout....
Support Friday's lows....
Thursday's ideal entry to confirm the break :- 43 pip top under the Breakout.....
Forex GBP/USD 7th Feb 2008 part 3
GBP has broken out of the Weekly .618 range and expectation that it's following the Weekly Trend lower into the 3-week lows.....I was stopped out on a high Risk long trade, but I haven't reversed into 'shorts' because of the 5-day lows. This might break lower during the US market hours, which is 3 hours away.. (going to bed)
For me to have traded 'shorts' today there would have to have been a 'spiral top' during the trading session and then trade the break on the Reversal bar below Wednesday's low, and then went to bed.....
FOREX GBP/USD 7th February 08 part 2
GBP reversed down the 43 pip range below Wednesday's lows and has headed down into Thursday's lowsUsing the same pattern to go long from as the previous 2 days, however this trade is a high Risk Trade because of Price trading outside the Weekly .618 @ 1.9558....
If the 43 pip moves up and provide a 'HOOK'.... then this trade could continue upwards
However, there is more of a chance that it won't......(limit 2 lots)
Entry @ 1.9540 (11 pip reversal) (stop 1.9525)
A 43 pip reversal upwards and leaving 1 lot until close of Thursday (move stop to breakeven from entry)
Note: A breakout outside the Weekly .618 and expectation that any push lower is towards the 3-week lows @ 1.9338
DOW E-mini 7th February 2008
On Wednesday US markets have closed below the 3-day cycle lows, and everything is pointing to lower prices:-Below Monthly and Weekly 50% levels, a Weekly timeframe with a 'top-to-bottom' price pattern, and all it needs now is the break the Weekly .618 levels and the bearish pattern will continue lower into Friday.
However, 3-down days in a Weekly timeframe, and the probability increases that there has to be 1 UP day, especially after the change of the 3-day cycle...
But first it needs to move back above the 3-day lows :- 12240 & 1332
Let's look at something from my first book, and the standard deviation of the past 2-days (yellow)
A move above 12285 and 1338 will confirm a reversal upwards, and there are 'rises' in Friday that suggest it's a possibility, but only if price is above those 2-day highs...
Often the 5-day 50% level can provide a 'sell' zone in down-trending Weekly patterns, but shorting the 5-day 50% level whilst price is above the 2-day channel high and the Risk is increased.
If Thursday is trading above those channel highs, then the range length is random, because a close back above the Weekly 50% level will be a 'HOOK' and there is a repeating pattern on a move back towards the 3-day highs on a 2nd day reversal....
SPI Trading 7th February RECAP
15:30
This week the SPI has sold off from a higher Weekly open, and from two important higher timeframe levels:- The January lows (expected Resistance), and the rotation away from the Monthly 50% level.
Throughout the book I mention a number of important Price patterns and highlight the risk and Rewards using certain techniques:- Support/Resistance and Spiral Points.
I also mention that I believe that there are only 1 or 2 high probability trades per Week, and the rest of the time we need to manage and minimise Risk.
We can see how important the R87 ranges have been this week, and a number of spiral-points providing robust swing points each day.
The high probability pattern this week was the Reversal from the top this week, using the 5-day range highs back towards the 5-day 50% level @ 5755. This was based on the 2-day reversal pattern at the start of the trading week, along with higher timeframe Monthly resistance.
Once that 2-day Reversal pattern had played out, I personally only want to capture 1X 44 point range in the market using certain patterns that I have seen happen on many occasions before, and believe the same pattern will repeat again.
Yesterday was a 22 point fade against the open, because I have seen on many occasions before, that a 'gap' open will move down 22 points and swing upwards 44 points before stalling, or heading much higher (87 points)
However I'm not really concerned on what happened afterwards, because when markets trade around the middle of the 5-day range it has an each way bet.
The same on today's open, however I didn't have a high probability on open, but I know that 5574 was a Risk play, and I also have an understanding of where the market is trying to go towards (DOWN), and I've seen 22 point reversal fades in the opposite direction. That's why I shorted, using Resistance and repeating patterns
Once again, all I'm interested in is the first 44 point completion.
Everyone who knows my work and who has followed me for a few years, know that I miss major trending days. I don't often sit in daily trends, but often those daily trends can provide a number of trades that I can capture as it moves from 1 level into the next.
For Example:- Monday's expectation that 5962 was resistance along with 5993 (5-day high)
If a trader entered shorts and held with the expectation of a reversal down into the 5-day 50% level @ 5755, there was over 200 points to trade down. The same pattern and analysis is there for all of us. It's happening and it's there for all to profit by.
Now imagine that 200 point move happen over 1 day, and it happened without reversing up 44 points. That position-swing trader would have done nicely out of the trade, but for a trader like me, I would have only been able to trade the first short on open and missed out the rest of the move.
But it didn't move down, it rotated around 44-points, which allowed me 3 different trades in the market, trading 3X money patterns.
Today:- After the open and 22 point Up move, I wanted to short below 5574 down to complete 44 points.
If the market moved down into the 44 point low on my first short, I would not have shorted again or traded again. But it didn't move down, it kept on moving back up into 5574. Even though I had a view of where price was going, price action allowed me the opportunity to trade a number of times.
Tomorrow is Friday:- the past two Friday's have had massive rallies back towards the highs. The Daily-Trend has been defined by the Dilernia Pivot. the 5-day 50% level, and a 2nd UP move occuring around 14:36....
I will look to see if this pattern is going to play out again, because the last two Friday's I've missed the open, only to make some money in the latter part of the day.
Therefore for position traders the 5-day 50% level is going to be important along with the Dilernia Pivot....
In a final Note:- I have hundreds of patterns inside my head, that I have seen over and over again. I try and analyse the market and then work out the best trading set-up for everyone to trade before the market opens.
Regardless of how I trade during the day, I still trade the exact same levels that everyone else should be using to minimise Risk and hopefully proft by.
Some days are perfect because of robust support and resistance levels, other days the market opens away from any support and resistance, therefore we need to rely on spiral points to manage risk......
"Any Individual can use this information to enhance his or her own way of trading. Whether you are a small-lot position trader, a short-term intra-day scapler, or using a systematic approach with mechanical systems:- this book provides a clear understanding that the market travels a certain distance over a certain time, and highlights the phenomena of high probability patterns with realistic expectation of follow through" (page 53)
Forex GBP/USD 7th February 2008
GBP following the overall trend of the monthly timeframe DOWN, and it's trading below all timeframe 50% levels...As with the case in Index future markets, the trend is defined by the higher timeframe 50% levels, but around certain daily and Weekly levels there are Support zones.
These Support zones have a random outcome, meaning they will provide support but the follow through doesn't always eventuate...
Tuesday Provided support
Wednesday Provided support
Thursday:- Technically everything is weak, and there is no suggestion of any upside moves. The only thing that favours an UP move is the slight 'rise' in Friday.
If that's the case then Wednesday lows should be level the that traders should refer to as a Trend bias:- any upside move is limited to 90-120pips...
Each market has it's own Ranges that can be used effectively... I like to use the 44 point range in the SPI, as a 'Money pattern' , and the same range can be used effectively in other markets.
I've mentioned previously the Ranges in GBP:- 120, 90, 43, & 31 pips......
Tuesday Support moved up 43 pips and reversed down, Wednesday support moved up 43 pips, and reversed down, and the level I want to define GBP on Thursday is the 43 pip low @ 1.95810
If the market is going to move up on Thursday, then it aligns with the 120, 90, & 43 spiral lows, and also the Wednesday low....
If it breaks lower I know that the market is heading lower....
The same pattern on Tuesday when I mentioned that price was trading below the 5-day 50% level and coming down from an 120 pip spiral top.... as price was moving down into Tuesday's low after the breakout of the 3-day cycle, each 43 pip spiral top allowed traders to enter the trade, or to manage the trade effectively.
Once profit objectives are reached, and the daily trend is defined by the Weekly Trend, there is no reason to trade again until the next day.
That's why I always favour a partial exit around these ranges to minmise Risk regardless of which market is traded. Then it's up to the trader to hold the trade as long as possible..
SPI Trading 7th February 2008 part 6
11:32Exit SHORTS @ 5540 (+29).... and no more trades today.....
Price following 5-day range lower..... (SPI Recap later)....
SPI Trading 7th February 2008 part 5
11:12amSPI moved back up to 5574 and has come back down (Choppy Trading) with a downward bias.
Added shorts @ 5572 exit shorts @ 5560 (+12)
Still holding from 5569 (stops remain @ 5576).....
Still looking for 5540 to be filled....
Note: I won't added any more 'shorts' if it re-tests resistance...
It Stopped out before 5540 reached, I won't trade again today (next Trade tomorrow)
SPI Trading 7th February 2008 part 4
10:34SPI remaining under 5574 and the upswing again provided an entry short @ 5569....
Partial exit 5556 (+13)
Stop @ 5576....
Looking for an R44 completion @ 5540
SPI Trading 7th February 2008 part 3
10:20...SPI moved up 22 points from lows, completing the R22 spiral top and then being pushed back under 5574....
Entry short 1 lot @ 5571
Exit on R22 low @ 5559 (+12)
At this stage of the Trading day it's going to be choppy and the only trade I will trade again is to use the R11 trio tops to trade downwards only if below 5574....
As I mentioned in the morning report, there is a lot of support around these levels, and if there is going to be any selling, it will probably be in the afternoon....
At this stage I probably won't look to trade Longs again, as price could be moving into 5-day lows:-
SPI Trading 7th February 2008 part 2
10:05SPI has opened below 5574, and is being pushed down: -high Risk trading longs below 5574...
Whilst price is below this level it has a random range outcome, however I don't 'short' lower opens unless it's coming down from an R44 spiral top, or a minimum R22 spiral top whilst price is under any Support....
I've taken a high risk long on a system trade, but it's only 1 lot entry looking for a 22 point move upwards in the market.....
entry 5563 exit 5577
Around R22 tops in the market @ 5579 and there is a possible down move in the market...It's high risk for me to trade longs again today whilst price reverse down from 5579 and under 5574
SPI Trading 7th February 2008
Analysing Market Dynamics and everything is bearish, price is trading below all timeframe 50% levels, and whilst below the 5-day 50% level the expectation is that price is moving down towards the 5-day lows...High Risk trading longs below 5574..
However there is still the upside 'Gap' to close, and even though a Weekly timeframe has a 'Top-to-bottom' probability there is always the potential of a Daily timeframe to close against the overall Weekly timeframe. That being an UP day within the downward Weekly timeframe.
Levels of Interest today
It will depend on where the market opens, because of the last 44 point range from yesterday, and that's going to be the levels of interest today.....
5571 (spiral low) & 5618 (spiral high)
Also the R87 low around 5567
Support 5567-71
Trading probabilites:-
An Up day will rise up from support and move upwards towards the 5-day 50% level or around 87 points before Risk increases.
A bearish pattern will be a reversal down from the Spiral point @ 5618 and head down into the R87 low, because below this level, the potential to follow the 5-day low pattern is a high probability, but that might happen in the 2nd half of the day.
Above 5618 and expectation the R87 is completing into the 5-day 50%.....That will be a high probability if price is rising up from 5567.
I don't have any high probability trades today on open because of the 44 point range completion from yesterday, but what I'll personally try and do is, trade into the 44 point range completion and then see how price reacts around those levels of interest to determine the daily trend direction......
DOW E-Mini 6th February 2008 part 2
US Markets following the 5-day pattern lower in Wednesday's support levels, as it moves with the overall Weekly trend (Top-to-Bottom)
I would have prefered more strength on Wednesday to re-test the breakout, and then trade the 5-day pattern down from a higher Daily open on Thursday.
Full report later....
FOREX GBP/USD 6th Feb 2008 part 3
GBP moved down into the Weekly support level @ 1.95580....Bounce up 43 pips, and Risk of Longs increase around these highs....
Partial exit here and run breakeven stops, because a reversal down from a 43 pip high and back down into 1.95580 and a good chance market is heading back down further....break of the 3-day extended lows..
Next UP side exit is 90 pip high @ 1.9643
FOREX GBP/USD 6th Feb 2008 part 2
GBP continues down following the Monthly Trend, 3-day SELL cycle and heading down into Wednesday's lows.I was looking for GMT time for the Weekly 50% level to support price and follow the earlier analysis:- 'HOOK-day', but that's not the case (stopped on Breakeven), and it's following the Weekly Trend....
Next support zone Wednesday's low and Weekly @ 1.9558
High Risk Trading longs Below Weekly @ 1.9558, as Price is pushing down toward February lows....
DOW E-mini 6th February 2008
DOW:-US markets rotating down from Monthly 50% levels and Trading Below Weekly 50% levels:- 2-day reversal from a higher Weekly open (Top-to-bottom)
Yesterday's broke the 3-day lows, and probability is that there is 72% chance that the next day is an UP day to re-test the 3-day breakout yesterday......
Support:- Yesterday's 5-day lows @ 12267
Below support and 'price path' is to move into lower lows on Wendesday @ 12187
UP swing 5-day 50% level is an exit zone, but Resistance zone is the Breakout from yesterday...(3-day range)
E-mini:-
Exact same expectation on E-mini:- Yesterday's 5-day lows support @ 1334
Below and expectation price is moving into lower lows.
Note:- higher timeframe dynamics is bearish, i'ts trading below January lows and Below February 50% levels, and Price is pushing outward, so there is a potential that price can have a lower close on Friday.
However, there is a 72% probability that today is an UP day, and it will depend on how Wednesday closes in relation to the Weekly 50% level. Because if price has the potential to close lower on Friday (top-to-bottom Weekly close), then trading shorts from a higher open the next day or Resistance around the 3-day breakout is an ideal set-up...
High Risk trading longs below Wednesday's Dynamic low support levels
SPI Trading 6th February 2008 part 5
15:40SPI: RECAP
SPI consolidating after the 44 point UP-swing, heavily influenced by BHP and it's decrease in earnings.
Expectation that after 44 point up move and previous 5-day lows @ 5656 that holding Longs were open to RISK, because of the higher timeframe Trends, and potential push lower towards the 3-day lows.
There is a Gap on the upside that will look to be filled, and that will depend on whether US markets rotate upwards from their 5-day lows on Wendnesday (US Report later)
I haven't traded again since this morning, next trade tomorrow.
FOREX GBP/USD 6th February 2008
"Whenever the market breaks the 3-day lows, as it did on Friday, the expectation is that price would move to the extended low the next day before reversing back towards the break....whether it's going to come down again providing a 'HOOK' day?????
When we look at Wednesday's range, it might actually provide the breakout on the Upside tomorrow, than any higher moves today." (Yesterday's report)
Tuesday moved down into the Daily lows, and now Wednesday is going to set-up a reversal trade upwards, confirmed with the break of the 3-day highs...
When we look at Wednesday's range, it might actually provide the breakout on the Upside tomorrow, than any higher moves today." (Yesterday's report)
Tuesday moved down into the Daily lows, and now Wednesday is going to set-up a reversal trade upwards, confirmed with the break of the 3-day highs...
Above the Tuesday lows and Weekly 50% level, I would like GBP to move up 90-120 pips from these lows. Personally I would like to see it just continue higher breaking the 3-day highs.
However, I know that price can move upwards, but move back down 90-120 pips before reversing off the Spiral low and then breaking higher on Wednesday, probably in the US timeframe in 10 hours time.
Note: Technical Analysis:- trading below monthly 50% levels and 3-day SELL cycle, there is nothing to suggest any UP move will take place, certain things need to happen for any Up swing to happen (Breakout)
Because an UP swing into the 5-day 50% level from Tuesday lows, and then the failure can most certainly continue down on Wednesday..... (Trading below Weekly 50% level)
SPI Trading 6th February 2008 part 4
11:28
BHP earnings come out (Read Stock Report) and SPI moves down into an R44 Spiral @ 5607, and then swings up into the R44 high and 5-day 50% level @ 5656 (RISK)
Stopped on last contract @ 5619
Re-entered longs on R44 spiral low and R11 Reversal @ 5621
Partial Exit 5633 (+12)
Exit all on R44 High @ 5649 (+28)
No More trading until things settle down, because at this point in the day, it's an each way bet on the direction of the market...
SPI Trading 6th February 2008 part 3
10:53am"Day-trading Interest levels are previous 5-day 50% levels 5656, 5707, 5729, along with Spiral points (morning Report)"
Market is moving up 44 points @ 5654, and is hitting the first 5-day 50% level from Friday @ 5656…
For any further gains SPI needs to move up above this level…, as a 5-day 50% level and Spiral Top there is an increased Risk of longs...
" I would like only to re-enter longs after an R11 Trio change, and use this as support....(SPI Report part 2 10:03am)"Using R11 Trio as support @ 5618
Stopped on Trailing @ 5615 (entry price 5613) after first partial Exit @ 5628 (+13)
Moved back into Longs on Bounce and reversal off R22 lows @ 5619 (R11 trio)
Partial exit 5630 (+11)
2 lot Exit 5647 (+28)
Leaving 1 lot open with breakeven stops on entry @ 5619….
And let's see where Price goes:- Upwards towards 5729 or DOWN....
SPI Trading 6th February 2008 part 2
"What's my high probability long trade set-up :- higher Risk????I would like to see a 22-point move against the open before thinking about trading long positions, and then look for a move upwards into the 'Gap'" Morning Report....
10:03am
SPI opened lower and moved against the Trend 22 points, expectation that Price will move upwards towards the Gap closure....or at least to the Weekly 50% level @ 5668
Entry 5613 partial Exit 5628
Holding into an R44 high (5654) 2nd lot...
Stops below lows :- Expectation price can still move down towards 3-day lows..especailly after an R44 spiral top or Weekly 50% level
I would like only to re-enter longs after an R11 Trio change, and use this as support....
SPI Trading 6th February 2008
What is the Weekly Bar doing? Is it rising upwards or moving down from a higher open?.... DOWN
What is the Monthly Trend? Is it swinging up from the Monthly lows or Reversing Down from the Monthly 50% level?..... Reversing Down
Where is price is relation to the Weekly 50% level and the 5-day 50% level?..... BELOW
This suggests that the overall 5-day pattern is weak, and any further downside can follow the Weekly Bar and close lower continuing down towards the 3-day cycle lows once again. (Top-to-Bottom Weekly Bar)
Price has followed the expectation that 'January lows' will play a major resistance level and remain range bound between higher timeframe levels, as per Weekly Report....
Wednesday.....
Do I trade Longs on the 3rd day after a 2-day reversal?
YES, but I will be optimising my contracts to lesser positions (higher Risk)
Whenever the market opens in a 'Gap', and still inside the 5-day range, the expectation the market will move upwards to close the gap, and that gap is the 5-day 50% level.
After that move upwards, the rest of the day has a random outcome, it can stall and reverse following the higher timeframe analysis DOWN, or it might continue upwards
(3rd day rising).
Note: - There are no rules to say you have to trade the open, there is enough 'R44' Range rotation occurring each day that opportunities present themselves when the Spiral-Points and levels in the market align, as was the case with Monday and Tuesday...
And the Same today....All I'm personally interested in, is Trading the 'Money Pattern', others can hold as long as they want, as price moves from one timeframe level to the next.
What's my high probability long trade set-up :- higher Risk????
I would like to see a 22-point move against the open before thinking about trading long positions, and then look for a move upwards into the 'Gap'... I don't have any support to trade Longs from......
After that move the rest of the day is random, and I will trade again if certain levels and Spiral points align, because of my view of the higher timeframe Trends
Day-trading Interest levels are previous 5-day 50% levels 5656, 5707, 5729, along with Spiral points
"At this stage it's about rotation towards 5-day 50% levels and then trading outward within the 5-day pattern ranges."
DOW E-mini 5th February 2008 part 2
US markets following the 2-day reversal back down to the Weekly 50% level, and all the way down into the 3-day BUY cycle lows in both markets 12240 & 1331.50.....
This was confirmed with the breakout of the daily channels lows and 5-day 50% level on Tuesday, and now price is moving towards the 5-day lows once again...."At this stage it's about rotation towards 5-day 50% levels and then trading outward within the 5-day pattern ranges." Previous Report
Full report later on whether US markets rotate back upwards from the 5-day lows on Wednesday, because often price will come back and test 3-day BUY cycle lows before rotating back upwards, this was the same price action on the Australian Market last Week.
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