On Wednesday US markets have closed below the 3-day cycle lows, and everything is pointing to lower prices:-Below Monthly and Weekly 50% levels, a Weekly timeframe with a 'top-to-bottom' price pattern, and all it needs now is the break the Weekly .618 levels and the bearish pattern will continue lower into Friday.
However, 3-down days in a Weekly timeframe, and the probability increases that there has to be 1 UP day, especially after the change of the 3-day cycle...
But first it needs to move back above the 3-day lows :- 12240 & 1332
Let's look at something from my first book, and the standard deviation of the past 2-days (yellow)
A move above 12285 and 1338 will confirm a reversal upwards, and there are 'rises' in Friday that suggest it's a possibility, but only if price is above those 2-day highs...
Often the 5-day 50% level can provide a 'sell' zone in down-trending Weekly patterns, but shorting the 5-day 50% level whilst price is above the 2-day channel high and the Risk is increased.
If Thursday is trading above those channel highs, then the range length is random, because a close back above the Weekly 50% level will be a 'HOOK' and there is a repeating pattern on a move back towards the 3-day highs on a 2nd day reversal....
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