Index Futures & Stock Reports 8 August 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update

http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/




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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 7th August 09 recap

    At this stage I'm not bearish in the US because price is trading above support levels in the 5-day pattern

    For me to get bearish is US markets to rally into Friday's highs and come back down... (August highs resistance)

    Non farm payroll out tonight which might be enough to push US markets up into August highs on Friday...

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Expectation Friday would complete the move into the August highs, along with price selling back down.

    My expectation now is that a higher Weekly open will begin to pullback towards the Weekly 50% levels.





    Posted by

    SPI Daily 7th August 2009 recap



    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Expectation that the SPI would continue up into the August highs @ 4313 and then reverse back to retest the Monthly 50% level in August is now my view.

    The first sign of the reversal will be price trading below the 5-day 50% level, but won't be confirmed until there is a 5-day low breakout of the range.

    However, I'm not expecting the SPI to reverse back down in 1 week, I’m expecting the SPI to zig-zag its way back down, mainly within 5-day pattern rotations.


    Trend guide today was the 5-day 50% level 4258, which price ended up consolidating around, but enough to push the market in precise 21 point waves.


    Non farm payroll out tonight which might be enough to push US markets up into August highs on Friday...

    A reversal down next week will be dependant on Friday's close, with the target down into the Weekly 50% level....

    If Friday closes above August highs, then there is probably a good chance they will move upwards on Monday.

    At this stage i'm not bearish in the US because price is trading above support levels in the 5-day pattern at this stage of the day (mid night US time)

    For me to get bearish is either US markets to rally into Friday's highs and come back down closing near the 5-day 50% level. This should hopefully set-up a push down from early Monday.

    If Friday moves down and not into the 5-day highs once again, I would rather look for a level to short trade on Monday or early next week.

    I’m not a screen trader during the day session in the US, so I want to find levels and place limit entries to take positions..

    If US markets close above their August highs, which puts the SPI above 4313 on Monday, that reversal back down next week might not eventuate.


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    • Posted by

    DOW Futures 6th August 2009 recap



    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    US markets trading within the 5-day pattern, and there is still an expectation that price 'could' hit the August highs this week.

    However, there is a pattern that will confirm the beginning of a pullback from these highs back towards the Weekly 50% level, which normally begins with a 5-day low break.


    Posted by

    SPI Daily 6th August 2009 recap

    At this stage we continue to trade the 5-day ranges and price rotation within those 5-day ranges.

    Overnight the SPI moved down into Thursday's 50% level @ 4202 and found support.

    Either Price moves upwards from this level on Thursday and has a higher Daily close, or price follows the 'spiral top' pattern @ 3237-39 and moves back down into the 5-day 50% level once again and then lower.

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern


    The SPI continued up from the 5-day 50% level hitting Thursday's highs and stalling.

    Today has had the most volatility in the SPI intra-day for a long time, which was good to see, as it allow trader to trade the spiral point & ranges using the filters to take 'chunks' out of the market.

    Even though Price had followed the move upwards in early trading from the 5-day 50% level, I wasn't convinced until price had cleared 4239.

    The pattern I now want to see is where Friday closes in relation to the August highs and how price reacts to a higher Weekly open.




    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 5th August 09 recap


    August highs target & resistance.

    At this stage Wednesday's highs are beginning to match those level, and ideally I would like to see those highs hit...

    But if it is below the Yellow support levels then the bias is down:- random pattern



    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Early rise on Wednesday but not high eonugh to hit resistance levels.

    with a close below Support( yellow), there is a bias of a 2nd day pullback towards the 3-day cycle lows @ 982.

    Until there is a break of the 5-day lows and price not hitting the 'precise' August highs, I would treat US markets as range bound between the 5-day range pattern,



    Posted by

    SPI Daily 5th August 2009 recap

    "It's a simple case of trading on the side of the Spiral filter @ 4275...

    Above 4275 and price is moving up towards the the August highs @4313 (resistance)

    Below 4275, and the bias is to move down towards the R42 low @ 4233 & the 5-day 50% level @ 4218"

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    SPI WEEKLY AND 5-DAY PATTERN

    Early open above 4275 and I thought that price would move up and complete the August highs...

    But once below 4275 there was a bias to move down from the spiral top, resulting in a continuation down into the 5-day 50% level.

    As pointed out in yesterday's recap, I'm looking for a rotation downward into the August 50% level this month, as part of a 'retest' of the July breakout.

    I'm not sure of how quick that's going to be, it could happen in 1 week or it could take until the last week of August for that to play out.

    My view still stands for higher prices in the 3rd quarter, but I want to see a lesser timeframe pullback this month to verify the breakout.



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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 4th August 09 recap

    "US markets heading towards the August highs...

    Monday has closed above the 5-day highs, which normally will follow a higher daily move..

    Orderly pattern would be a higher move into Tuesday's highs and then completing the move into August highs by Wednesday"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    US markets should hit August highs on Wednesday.....






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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 4th August 2009 recap

    Global markets are moving into August highs by Tuesday/Wednesday this week.

    Depending on where the SPI opens, we have a higher spiral point@ 4269-73

    Above 4273 and price is moving towards the 5-day highs @ 4298:- random resistance.

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    SPI weekly and 5-day pattern.

    SPI moved into the 5-day highs and reversed down today...

    There is an expectation that US markets still need to move up and complete their August highs.

    Even though I think markets are still heading higher, and could continue higher in August towards 4400, I would begin to look for short-term 'tops' in the market around these levels and a move back down towards the monthly 50% levels.

    This pattern is a breakout extend pattern and price moves back down to retest the breakout and 50% level.

    If that occurs, then I would want to be looking for 'long' position once again for a move towards 4400+ over the next 2 months.

    At this stage it's not the ideal time to go 'GUNHO' into short positions, because there isn't an alignment with a US markets and their July highs, and I would still like to see a Friday close below this level @ 4314, and the Financial Index is still about 100 points shy of their own August highs.





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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) Daily 3 August 09 recap

    "US markets bullish with an UP bias towards August highs.

    There is nothing to suggest US markets will move down... there is a good reason that Monday should move towards Monday’s highs"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    US markets continuing into August highs and should complete the move by Tuesday, based on the 5-day high breakout on Monday.

    Posted by

    SPI Daily 3rd August 2009 recap

    "Expectation of higher prices in August and the 3rd Quarter, however I'm starting the Trading week based on the higher Weekly open and 2-day reversal pattern.

    Whenever Friday closes on its highs, but more importantly 'stalling' at the 5-day highs I would naturally model a two-day reversal back down into the 5-day 50% level.

    Trend guide 4226"




    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Early selling on the higher open during with price remaining below 4226 but not completing the move down towards 4180-90.

    instead choppy either side of the level in afternoon trading until a late sell-off, which fit in well with a 2-day reversal pattern.

    Choppy trading day but enough 21 point intra-day rotations to 'scalpe' some price movements out of the trading day.



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