Index Futures, Forex Reports 4th Apr 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD. GBP/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update

http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/



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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 3rd April 09 recap

    "S&P has fulfilled my first upside target in April @ 842

    There is a breakout of the 5-day high on Thursday, therefore the expectation is to push upwards on Friday.

    Ideal pattern would be to test Yellow support and continue upwards:- Higher Friday close"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Friday played out precisely, but in any other situation Friday would have continued towards the Friday highs.

    This suggests that around these levels @ 842 is forming a resistance zone, so it will be interesting how US markets react early next week.....

    Higher Weekly open, already trading around upper Monthly levels in April.

    This suggests and a short-term pullback next week towards the Weekly 50% levels.



    Posted by

    SPI Daily 3rd April 2009 recap

    "Expectation of an early push upwards in April makinh a higher high is playing out.

    First target @ 3768 reached.

    Random resistance Friday's highs and Spiral top.

    Support: Thursday's highs @ 3710"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Higher Weekly close and first target reached @ 3768, with a Text book pattern on a 2 X Monthly move should take the SPI up towards 3845 (April high).

    At this stage Whilst pricec is trading around these levels and a higher Weekly open next week I would like to see the SPI move back down into the Weekly 50% level.

    Weekly Report out tomorrow
    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini 2nd) April 09 recap

    "Higher move in early April should push up the S&P up to 842....

    Hard to trade longs around the 5-day highs in the US...

    Thursday just might end up a small range day that consolidates around these upper levels"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Expectation of higher moves in early April have played out completing the first target of higher highs @ 842.

    The trend remains up and i'll get a better idea on US markets after this week has closed out.

    Whilst price is above the April 50% level @ 797 the bias is to move higher, but if there is a Weekly close below 797, then my view begins to change.



    Posted by

    SPI Daily 2nd April 2009 recap

    "Bullish in early April and price is above the 5-day 50% level @ 3626

    We have the HOOK pattern in the 24 hour market and the expectation is now that price should continue towards the 5-day highs @ 3710"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI opened higher and moved down into support @ 3626 and then continue towards the 5-day highs @ 3710.



    Posted by

    DOW S&P Daily 1st April 2009 recap

    "I'm bullish in the Short-term in early April, but US markets are trading below their Monthly 50% levels.

    Weekly 50% supporting the market.

    Above the blue channels and in the short-term could attract buyers upwards

    If that can occur, then there is more chance of a higher Weekly close as I would think that Thursday would continue higher from the 5-day 50% level"

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    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern


    Bounce off the Weekly 50% level on Monday and move then a bounce off support on Wednesday and back above the 5-day 50% level fulfills my view of higher prices in early April.

    Expectation that this pattern should continue towards the Weekly highs this week.

    The important part in Wednesday's trading is the Daily closure above the April 50% level.



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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 1st April 2009 recap

    "Start of the new Quarter and new Month and I'm bullish with the expectation price will continue higher.

    The only thing now is for price is move above the 5-day 50% level.

    Yesterday's 5-day lows supported price, moved up to retest Monday's Breakout and then got sold down into the close.

    If there is going to be a higher move today then Support needs to hold and a HOOK pattern needs to occur above the 5-day 50% level for a move upwards"




    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern.

    Start of the new Quarter and new Month and I'm bullish with the expectation price will continue higher.

    Today followed the same pattern as yesterday, finding support around the 5-day lows, but this time there wasn't a follow on with a break, instead price rotated around between the levels in a choppy and small range day.

    Why I'm a bullish in the short-term?

    It's trading above all higher timeframe 50% levels, but more importantly it has been trading and has closed above the previous 'single' Monthly timeframe high in March.

    Because of this I subscribe to a Breakout and extend pattern at the start of this Month towards higher highs.

    However, when we look at the US markets ( DOW and S&P) , there isn't any bullish patterns, price action has simply rotate back into the Monthly 50% levels and stall, and are now trading below the April 50% level.

    The SPI needs to be trading below 3495-3502 to be in the same trend (Support)

    Therefore, the only thing now for the SPI too move higher is a move above the 5-day 50% level and a breakout of the channel high on Thursday.

    Even though I'm bullish in the short-term, I'm actually bearish in the 2nd Quarter, but I would like to see the SPI make a slight higher higher before reversing back down.


    If there was going to be a higher move today then Support @ 3582 needed to hold and a HOOK pattern above the 5-day 50% level for a move upwards.

    That pattern did play out reversing down from 3607 into 3582 but the buying didn't appear to send the SPI higher.


    Note:- Below the 5-day lows and we need to subscribe to the fact that Monday's break and Yesterday's retest of the break and today's failure to continue higher can lead to a move down towards the higher timeframe support zones 3495-3502




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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) 31st March 09 recap

    US markets trading below the Monthly 50% levels

    "I'm bullish in the short-term and this down move into the Weekly 50% levels on Monday is the pattern that I wanted to see before a higher move in April

    However on Tuesday I don't have a 'long' set-up to trade.

    Yesterday's break of Support should push down into Tuesday's support"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Early rise up on Tuesday hit resistance levels using the 5-day filter in the S&P and the DOW pushing the daily close towards the lows and Tuesday's support

    This closes out the Quarter, and now I'll be looking for Long set-ups for 1 last push upwards in the short-term and then there is a potential for a larger trend reversal downward after that.

    At this stage price is below the Monthly 50% level which is bearish, but there needs to be further weakness below the Weekly 50% levels for my short-term up move to fail in Early April.







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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 31st March 2009 recap

    "The SPI is following a 3-day reversal pattern from last Friday.

    Support 3555:- potential move towards 3610 late in the day.

    Below support and expectation price is moving back down into the Weekly 50% level @ 3502"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI moved up from Tuesday's support @ 3555 completed the move into 3610, and I would have preferred a reversal down from that level.

    Instead the SPI pushed up and retested the breakout from Monday before reversing down late in the day.

    Expectation that the SPI will continue with the breakout pattern and move down towards the Weekly 50% level @ 3502, and follow the 5-day pattern.

    Unless the SPI opens above 3625 tomorrow, it looks like another lower open and BUY support.

    As per Weekly Report;- I'm bullish at the start of April once this 3-day reversal pattern plays out and bounces off the Weekly 50% level support.

    But I'm bearish once those upper levels are reached in April or those support zones fail.



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    • Posted by

    DOW Daily 30th March 2009 recap

    "Expectation of higher prices in April, but in the short-term I'm expecting a pullback into the start of the April.

    That pullback can easily slip back towards the Weekly 50% levels.

    If support breaks then price is down into the 5-day lows, and they might not hold"

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    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    US markets have pulled back into the Weekly 50% level.

    Push down from the 5-day 50% level breaking support, and then the 5-day lows failing to hold, which isn't surprising.

    Tuesday is the last day of the month, and I'm expecting 1 last kick upwards to make a slightly higher high in April before selling hits global markets once again

    However, it won't surprise me to see another down day on Tuesday, but then stablise and move upwards from the start of the April towards the Weekly highs.


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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 30th March 2009 recap

    "Expectation the Aussie market is going higher in April, but in the short-term my view is for the SPI to pullback into 3580, as part of a 3-day pullback into the start of April.

    Today favours an UP move to close Friday's gap @ 3667, and I'm not expecting too much more upside than Friday's gap closure.

    Support as shown"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Expectation that price would close Friday's gap @ 3667, either from a lower or a higher open, as was the case today.

    Once price close the gap the rest of the day move down into support, as part of the 3-day pullback.

    Depending on US markets on Monday, but a 3-day pullback can move down into 3580 by tomorrow.

    At this stage I still have the view of price moving higher in April, as long as the Market remains above the Weekly 50% levels....

    But i'll judge the 3-day pullback first, as it will close out the trading Month of March and April begins on Wednesday.




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