SPI Daily and 5-day pattern Recap 15:30
The Aussie market is currently being supported above the October
50% level, but being dragged down by Resource stocks.
For day trading purposes, today was ideal 'spiral-point'
rotating patterns within the 5-day range.
Once this Weekly timeframe ends on Friday it will give us a clear
indication which way the market will go in October from next week, and i'm not bullish on resource stocks in the 4th Quarter.
The best case scenario for the rest of 2008 has been described,
more sideways price action with higher prices in November and then
a continuation down in 2009 into lower lows.
The worse case scenario for global markets will depend largely on
resource stocks (Weekly report on Weekend)
If the market closes below 4232 at the end of 2008 because
Resource stocks drop into Yearly lows in the 4th Quarter, the down trend
will continue for another 2 years.
There will be a large counter-trend move upwards in 2009 into the
Yearly 50% level, but after that, the market will drift lower for the next
2 years into 2010....
and a lot of hurt.
Dilernia Prinicple:- breakout of timeframe lows and the market moves in a 2 timeframe wave pattern extension. In this case the Yearly timeframe
S&P Daily and 5-day pattern
Early resistance around the 5-day 50% level pushing US markets down, but not down far enough, as the swing low off support didn't reach for a move UP towards the October 50% levels on Thursday.
SPI Daily and 5-day pattern
SPI opens higher and sells down from 4867 and into the 5-day 50% levels finding support.
And look where the SPI is trading:- right on the October 50% level, which is going to decide the direction of the market for the next 4 weeks.
Upside is back towards October highs and resistance and moving into a 4 week sideways pattern and then continue higher from November.
If Resource stocks continue down from next week, then the SPI will follow the pattern of a lower low in October.
And all global markets will be heavily influenced by the FED's bailout plan
S&P Daily and 5-day patternLast day of the Quarter and Month and the important levels have been set for October 2008.
The Yearly lows in September (read Weekly Report) will be verified once price has move above the October 50% levels.
http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/
It is these Monthly 50% levels which will decide whether US markets move down into October lows, or follow my view and begin a 3-month uptrend (slightly), over the next Quarterly timeframe.
And that depends on how the FED bail out plan plays out this week...
At this stage:- October 50% levels are still viewed as resistance until they fail (break)
Above 1198 and the view is to move back towards 1282 and stall, and then drift back down into a consolidating 4 week pattern between both the 50% level and October highs.
Further weakness and S&P is down around 1081 in October....
SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern
SPI closed the gap @ 4970 and has continued down, with a possibility that price could end up around Wednesday's lows, which is below 4400, and that will depend on US markets.
Today is the last day of the month and Quarter, and I mentioned that a re-test of the Yearly lows (double low) could play out before any higher move in October.
We have had the double low today, but that low hasn't occurred in October.
Once again the trend guide in the last Quarter will be determined by the monthly 50% levels, and how well Resource stocks bounce from current lows, because it will be them dragging the market lower.
SPI spiral filter
Spiral filter trend guide during the course of the day and entry set-ups.
S&P Daily and 5-day pattern
SPI Spiral filter
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