US Weekly Report 3rd November

DOW and other US markets are being supported around major support zones based on the Quarterly 50% levels. (13441)

Both Weekly sell-offs this month were forecasted and forewarned using 'Dilernia drops' using the Weekly timeframes.

Whilst markets are still trading above these levels, the major trends are still up.

The only worrying thing about the Support zones are:- the next Quarter are showing Drops, this can send markets back down in this Quarter, and it was the reason why the first major sell-off occurred in July. Support will obviously change if next week markets break these 50% levels, because the expectation would be to move back down into the November lows.

But just as the Markets were supported around the previous Quarterly lows, at this stage the only expectation is that the same will occur in this Quarter. And Friday’s trading has at this stage confirmed support.

US report continues below....

Book:- “Once the Quarterly 50% level has been reached, price will normally spend a minimum 2-3 weeks consolidating around support…the more time that price spends at this level, the more the market is pricing in value”

Just as the previous Quarterly 50% level provided a number of trading weeks around support, at this stage I have the same view in current global markets.

Next Week:- I have the same expectation next week as two weeks ago, a Weekly ‘bar’ that has an up bias, but the trend is going to be defined by the Weekly 50% level 13758.

Therefore choppy-rotating days as the markets consolidate.

US weekly Report Continues below....

ES-minis Weekly Report

ES is far more compelling when looking at Market dynamics and support.

Support verified in October, and so far verified in November, with both Weekly
'Dilernia-Drops' forecasting and also forewarning ‘weaker’ timeframes this month.

Next Week: Exact same expectation, daily and weekly trends are going to be defined by the 50% levels @ 1528.

Trend remains up whilst above these 50% levels.

There is so much negative news in the US markets, that is hard for any person to have a fundamental reason why markets should move higher, but this is the only conclusion I can make at this stage. And the more it consolidates above these levels the more it’s pricing in ‘Value’

However, if US markets do come under more selling, then the expectation is that not only would the ES come down to 1431, but it could go as far as 1399.25, but historically these next two months don’t normally have ‘bearish tendencies.

US report 2nd November

Drops: In forward Weekly timeframe and expectation is that the current week will come under 'selling' pressure.

The Random trading length on the move down has rotated back into major Support zones in both the DOW, and ES

DOW: Support 13584 ES 1504.. (November 50% levels)

These support zones need to be verifed by Friday's trading.

Support needs to be confirmed by a weekly close above or thereabouts, with Monday next week once again following an upward pattern as occured the previous week, if it remains above these levels.

Day:-trading is currently below both risk levels for Friday....as shown below

Friday Risk levels in both DOW 13634 and ES 1519.75

SPI 2nd November 2007 Part3

1:17pm 2nd Nov.

"Expectation of the market to rise higher and close the Gaps @ 6752 and 6792 (latter (6792), not today but could occur tonight if US rotate upwards)

Expectation is that there are resistance zones in the market based on the 3-day lows @ 6737.

DayTraders: R44 completion @ 6726 partial exits and let the day run it's course

A bullish day is often confirmed with a 22 point down move from the R44 highs, bounce off support (pivot 6709) and heads higher into the close. (current price action)

The next 44 completes the 6752 gap closure.

At this stage trading shorts today is open to risk, as long as price is trading above the lower pivots, because of the expectation of 'gap' closure and system expectancy." (premium report 12.03pm)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Gaps closing with expectation that 2nd Range of 44 points will complete @ 6752 (Day traders: exit zones 6748-52)

SPI 2nd November 2007 Part2

10:50am 2nd Nov

Early push down into the 50% level of the past 5 days.

Price following the expectation of an up move to close the 'gaps' in the market.

Day-trading risk increases around 6726, Day traders can partial exit around 6724-26 levels and let market run it's course into close. Risk below 6699.

GBP/USD part 2

Pivot highs supporting the market today, but around the highs in the last 500 mins of trading, the systems have gone short for the first time in a number of days.

Normally the rotation down begins from the start of the new week, with the expectation that there will be a 2-day rotation/stall. At this stage for Friday market looks exhausted around current highs...

SPI 2nd November

8:25am 2nd Nov.

Forewarning 'Drops' in the forward Weekly timeframe have sent US markets back into major November 50% levels.... (Complete Report later)

SPI:- Lower open and price is opening below the 3-day lows 6737. Techincally:- this is 'bearish', and a weaker pattern will remain below the 3-day lows @ 6737, today.

However: Using another statisitcal pattern, 'Gaps' on the R87 don't normally send the markets down, they actually try and close the gap upside.

Positions on Daily system are neutral and no trades are taken today, but 'day-traders' need to simply trade on the side of 'Risk'.

Risk is 6699.

Below and don't fight the trend, above and I'm sure intra-day there will be resistance zones @ 6737, with the expectation that there is a 44 point move in the market. I'd be surprised to see it move as high as 6777-93, that would probably happen if US markets settle above November 50% levels, and actually rotate upwards on Friday...

US report part 2

Weekly Drops are pushing the market down into lower 'support-Risk' pivots.

Weekly drops favor further weakness into Friday, but at this stage these lower levels should be used as a guide of the rest of Thursday

Thursday DOW support 13787 ES support 1532

A Weekly 'drop' in the forward timeframe favors a 'weaker' 5 day pattern this week, the length of any 'weak' pattern is random, it can remain choppy or rotate down much futher.

However, expectation of a rotation into the 5-day 50% levels are:- DOW 13722 ES 1526

Whilst price is back under the Weekly 50% levels the trend of the 5-day pattern is down.

Major support remains the November 50% levels

GBP/USD

GBP/USD..

Bounce off the October 50% level and heading into a two-month wave pattern into November highs…

Thursday Risk and trend defined by Pivot, high 2.0748

US report November 1st

Medium term view:- Head upwards in November, following a 2 monthly wave pattern.

Short-term View: This week expectation of a 2-day stall-reversal down, with yesterdays lower pivots providing the swing back towards the highs.

Trend is up defined by the weekly 50% levels.

Thursday:- Very Similar price action today on the SPI, with the expectation of market support & UP bias.

Note: there are drops still in the forward week, if Thursday is a choppy day, then there is an expectation that Friday could rotate back down into the center of the past 5 days.

No clear Direction on Thursday for US markets, other then following the weekly trend.

SPI part 3

3:30pm November 1st

6825 supports the market and finally the market completes the 44 point range
into 6866. Following the expected weekly trend upwards in November.

Around these highs is partial exit for day-traders

SPI report part 2

10:49am November 1st

Day traders:- Normally on a Gap open there is an expectation that the market will rotate back and close the gap @6824, this is either going to support the market and head higher into Friday, or it can easily rotate down 87 points. Premium Daily report

Gap filled the Gap @ 6825.

Hard day to call, because the R44 range needs to complete, so it's either going to come down further into 6815, which sets up further rotation down as it follows the R87 range confirmed with the Weekly high resistance zones......trading below Risk levels...

6825 is a risk level for trading for rest of today with the expectation that the 44 points needs to complete. A close above the weekly high of 6856 would probably follow the higher weekly close into Friday.

SPI 1st November 2007

8:10am November 1st

Start of the new trading month and the expectation is that resistance will disappear and the market will head higher to 7000+

Today:- Daily system will offload contract to be neutral.

Day traders:- Risk 6841 with expectation price will move away 44 points

There is no clear direction today, other than using 'risk pivot level'.

SPI:-Push down early filling the gap. Dilernia Pivot Support 6752


Day traders partial exit 6781, with the expectation market is heading higher with the shift of timeframes. Obviously US markets re-action to %rates will have a bearing on where the market opens tomorrow.

Risk 6752;- expectation of next wave upwards towards 6841

SPI Report

SPI Report 31st October

Last day of the trading month and the Dynamics shift with the
expectation that markets are moving higher in the next month.

We can see in the Weekly chart on the day session (below), the SPI
is hitting upper monthly resistance, this resistance will disappear at the
end of today's trading which will allow for prices to move higher towards 7000+ in the forward month/s


A higher Weekly open and expectation is that price will rotate down for 2-days:- Yesterday was the first and today is that 2nd day, and not helped by US markets now trading below their weekly 50% levels, and they have started the first day of rotation back down waiting for %rate ann.


SPI will come down and complete the range @ 6768, and bullish market will remain above the break of the 3-day high (6767) and head upwards.

A weak market (2nd day rotation), as another down day will have a random length, as pointed out yesterday, which can go down much further due to the large gap to the 3-day lows, to close out the trading month.

DOW and ES intraday levels for Wednesday:-

US Report 31st October 2007

Dilernia Report 31st October 2007


US Markets


It all depends on how US markets re-act to interest rate news.


Medium term:- view that the market is heading higher in November.

Short-term:- the market is moving in a 2-day down move, with the weekly 50% levels in both market defining the trend for the rest of this week.

Even though the trend is down atm, and could go down further because of the forward drops in next week's timeframes, traders shouldn't fight the trend if the market is trading above them on Wednesday, and the same applies if markets are trading below them (which they are atm).


DOW and ES:-

Both trading above lower Risk levels, and up move on Wednesday would need to see ES break 1539.50, whilst DOW upside move would be back towards the highs.