SPI Trading 1st April 2008

SPI Weekly and Daily charts.

Start of a new Month and Quarterly timeframe, and there are conflicting trends in the market.

The overall Primary and Secondary (Yearly/Quarterly) trends are down, along with the Monthly, whilst the Shorter trends are UP:- Above the Weekly and 5-day 50% levels.

With the start of the new timeframes as of the 1st of April, the expectation is that if it's going to follow the shorter trends then the market will move up towards 5521.

If it's going to follow the bigger trends, then price will move down into the April balance point and then continue down.

Keep in mind that all new trends begin a 'thrust' from the central points outwards, and we are currently trading near the central points, therefore I would like to see price come down and test the Weekly 50% level and April balance point to get a clear picture on the direction of the trend.

Note: The Weekly timeframe is still 'stuck' inside the last Quarterly timeframe, as it began in March, and won't match until the end of this week.

Therefore it won't surprise me to see this week continue in a 5-day sideways consolidating pattern before new any trend or thrust begins from next week.


SPI intra-day

Yesterday's analysis was about the probability of price coming down into the April balance point this week, but not necessarily on Monday because of the lower Spiral Point open.

I also modelled that Tuesday might provide a more robust pattern to trade down.

Today we have a higher Spiral-point, and this set-up provides a more robust pattern of 'short'-trading down.

Therefore:- I'm looking to use the higher Spiral point to short trade down around 5419-22 in early trading.

In conclusion:- Yes I'm looking for price to come back into the Weekly 50% levels and April Balance Point this week, however because of the Weekly timeframe i'm also looking for a 5-day sideways pattern and consolidation.

If that's the case then this Week is about trading the 44 point Spiral points....

Going Long around the lows and Short-trading the highs, and taking points using those Spiral points as Risk plays.

Sure there will be times when they fail and I'll be stopped out, but if this Week plays out a consolidating 5-day pattern, then the gains using the R44 Spiral points should outweigh the losses.