Monday's trading will be based on whether the SPI will begin with a 2-day reversal pattern upwards....
Based on Friday's trading and the spiral filter, I have to favour price rising upwards to complete the Range @ 4724.
Resistance 4727.
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SPI Weekly (day session) and 5-day pattern (range)
Today’s early upward bias aligned with the Weekly 50% level and Friday’s spiral low and support.
However my expectation was that price on Monday would struggle to rise higher than the levels in the 5-day range.
Expectation 4727 could push the SPI back down 21 points and remain in a consolidating pattern, but there was a slight push wards into 4739, and then the SPI moved into a consolidating pattern and 21 point reversal.
As pointed out early last week:- lower Friday close into support levels and this normally favours a lower Weekly open and a continuation upwards into higher highs over the next 2 weeks.
Normal price action would begin with a 2-day reversal back towards 4797, as the first pattern and then continue upwards in December.
However, it’s not the price action in the SPI, it’s the price action in the S&P 500 over the next 2 days that’s going to validate that happening.
Currently the price action in the S&P 500 is bearish in the short-term: - below 1097.50, and whilst below this level I have a view that the S&P 500 is trying to make its way down into the Weekly 50% level over the next 2-days.
I have a conflicting pattern in the S&P 500 to confirm any higher moves in the SPI at this stage.
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