At this stage I’m not factoring in the 5-day lows & Weekly 50% level as support, as I feel that Thursday will probably breakout"
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S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern
Since last week’s HOOK pattern back above the Weekly 50% level I expected a move towards the Monthly highs within the first 3 days.
I didn’t have a bearish set-up on the S&P in the short-term as price wasn’t trading near resistance levels and price was above 50% levels, therefore the bias was to continue higher.
However, that bearish pattern appeared at midnight US time with Wednesday's close and Thursday's open pre-empting the change of the trend and break of short-term support levels @ 1098.
I've seen these patterns before:- 2-days consolidation around the support levels and Wednesday moves higher but then drifts down and Thursday opens below the 5-day 50% level.
Normally the market will remain below the 5-day 50% level over the first 4 hours, (after midnight NY) and then begin to move lower.
After 3-days of not going anywhere, when the market should have continued higher on Wednesday, I could not be bullish when Thursday started the day below the 5-day 50% levels
Now there's a breakout of the 5-day low on Thursday, which should continue down on Friday and maybe push down into the 3-week lows December 50% levels by Monday.
Whilst price is below 1098, the bias is to continue down over the next 2-days, I just would have preferred a larger trending day on Thursday towards 1083.
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