Until there is a weekly close above 1525 and the 3-week cycles, the overall UP trend in December is open to risk. However like the previous UP move occurring in the week of expiry in September, I have the same expectation of occurring next week. (December Expiry)
The majority of trending days in US markets have been driven by % rates, and yesterday’s reversal was another day.
This reversal on Tuesday was want I wanted to see, it’s the exact same price pattern that occurred last week, and two weeks ago:- The weekly 50% level is supporting the market.
And Tuesday (yesterday)the same dynamic level has supported price again this week.
In UP trending weekly patterns, there is always an expectation of a 1-day reversal into support before the trend resumes, and in my opinion this is only a 1-day reversal
Even though, US markets are below their December 50% level, I favor the trend continuing higher, only because of the reason of contract expiry.
Weekly Report 8th December " 1 Daily Reversal down needs to be
verified with support, before trading longs higher the next day from a lower open"
Wednesday:- Expectation that today will be an UP day, but not a large reversal day:- furthest move would be towards the 3-day break from Yesterday, and then the strength of the trend will be defined by the 5-day 50% level on Thursday if price is going to swing back towards Tuesday’s highs again.
Statistically, I favor an UP day, but the Weekly 50% levels must hold and close above on Wednesday for the UP trend to continue.
As I've mentioned before:- Market is heading higher, with the best possible trade from lower prices:- ideally around the higher timeframe support or the 5-day lows.
It's the 5-day lows and higher timeframe support in E-minis
For those already long, I would look to partial exit around the 5-day 50% level, and move stops to below Tuesday's lows, and then continue to hold into next week.
Even though I contine to be bullish, the next UP move might not eventuate until the start of next week.....
"does it rotate down 1 week before rising upwards from a lower weekly open the following week?" Weekly report
Note:- Continue trading December contracts until next week:- Switch analysis on Monday for March 2008 contracts.
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