Please Read Australian Index Weekly Report before continuing.....
Past Price & Time action will influence Future Price action....
The above Chart is the SPI 200 futures Daily chart along with the past 2 months of trading. Each previous monthly timeframe will have a major influence over the future trading month.
Whenever the market opens in the middle of the monthly timeframe, price will try and push itself towards the outer ranges of the previous month over the next 4 weeks, it’s our job to capture the trends and reversals of the market over the next 4 weeks.
The 50% level of February 5896 is an important level, and often price can consolidate around this level for a number of weeks.
On Monday the SPI is going to open around 5960, this places the SPI above the February 50% level @ 5896, and using the lows of January ‘breakout’ (Resistance 5962) we are looking to trade the SPI down on Monday back into 5896….
The outcome after this has a random outcome based on what happens in US markets, because further gains in the US will push the SPI higher, and any short-term weakness in the SPI and expectation price will move towards the middle of the past 5-day range over the next few days.
Above is the 24 hour daily chart of the SPI….
Each box constitutes a weekly timeframe or 6 days of trading (Saturday)
As each weekly timeframe grew in range, the previous Weekly timeframe influenced the range of the future Weekly Timeframe. Each Weekly timeframe grew 100% of the preceding timeframe. Each 100% level became support and reversed back towards the 50% level.
We need to analyse the 24-hour charts, because it gives us levels in the market that as Day-traders we can use to trade. (Support and Resistance)
When we analyse the Weekly timeframe for next week price is trading above the 50% level 5732, but it also has a high of 6184… therefore our trading levels next week are 6184-5732.
In conclusion:-
The January lows will influence price on Monday and I’m expecting a move down from 5962 and back into 5896 to close the Gap…
After that expected down on Monday, price action is random, and we will analyse the markets from Tuesday, because a continued up move in US markets and price will obvious open higher on Tuesday, which could be as high as the 2nd January low level @ 6054 (2nd resistance zone)
I don’t think the SPI will move up to 6184 this week unless US markets continue much higher next week. These January levels (5962-6054) could play a major resistance level for a number of weeks before any further gains towards 6200-6300+ the closer it comes to the contract expiry in March. (Yearly 50%)
Past Price & Time action will influence Future Price action....
We can see that in the 24 hour chart, last Friday had sold down from the 5-day highs, into the 5-day lows on Thursday, and then rallied back towards the 5 -day highs on Friday (breakout on Saturday)
This time, price is trading above the Monthly 50% levels, and on the Day session the SPI is going to be heavily influenced by Friday's highs and the Dilernia Pivot @ 5938....
Therefore Traders need to respect that if price is not trading below those levels on Monday, a move upwards on Monday could eventuate, as it follows the 5-day range higher...5993
Day trading:- the SPI moves in 44 point ranges, so after the initial push lower from highs on Monday 44 points traders should begin to lighten positions to minimise Risk…
Levels of interest:- Resistance
5962 ( January .618 monthly low & Weekly .618 High)
5993 (5-day high)
Risk:- 5938 (Dilernia Pivot)
Levels of interest:- Support
5896 (February 50% )
5869 (3-day high) Support
5723 (weekly 50%)
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