SPI Daily and Intra-chartsYesterday closed above the 3-day highs @ 5227, this is often the first sign that the bottom for March has been confirmed.
However, often when the 3-day cycle changes the market can stall and reverse back down over the next 1 or 2 days before the UP move continues.
Thursday:- If the reversal plays out then 5254 is the upside Risk and expectation that price is pushing down into the 5-day 50% level @ 5202.
Further weakness would see price push down into 5164, which could easily happen.
UP day????....
A 3-day break also signals a bullish price pattern:- Trading above the 3-day high breakout and using 5254 as a Risk level. If price is trading above 5254 then the expectation is price is moving UP towards the 5-day highs (Weekly 50% 5335)
This also aligns with a lower open today and a lower spiral point.
Note: There is no guarantee that 5-day highs will be reached, but they are the only levels above 5254.
In Conclusion:- It's an each way bet today, but the line in the sand on today's direction is 5254.
Even though I have modelled a scenario with a weaker price pattern whilst it's trading below 5254, I won't be shorting the open because it's a lower Spiral point.
The only thing would interest me 'shorting' would be a 22-point rejection pattern under 5254.
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