SPI Trading 20th August 2008 recap

Morning report:-


Today:- It's all about the 5-day breakout and the retest of the 5-day breakout (4873)

SPI opens and moves up from the spiral filter @ 4836, then the expectation is that the SPI is completing the R44 higher, which is a higher spiral point that should align with the 5-day breakout:- resistance (4875)

If that plays out, then the expectation is for the SPI to continue lower towards the 5-day lows on Wednesday... (4764) Probability pattern/ rejection pattern

Note:- statistical probability of a rise UP from the spiral filter (4836) and expectation of a double R44 range UP (87 points)"


"Eventually there will be a 2-day counter-trend move upwards (probably Thursday) before any new trend continues down which could occur next week:-

Sell 3-day high and 4th Week continuation of the downtrend in August, as per Weekly reports."


Today:-

SPI opens and rallies up from the open and back into the 5-day break, which was the first part of the probability pattern....

The second part of the pattern was for a move down towards the 5-day lows :- 4784

Once it hit 4875 there was resistance and the SPI reversed back down 30 points, but as often seen using the Spiral filter:- statistical probability pattern is to continue higher with a double R44 point range (87 points).

End result:- the first day of the counter-trend move has come 1 day early, and it has stalled under the Weekly 50% level.




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