SPI 18th November 2008 recap

SPI will complete the move down into November's lows today. Once these lows have been reached, I'm expecting a counter-trend move back towards the Weekly 50% level.

That is obviously going to be influenced only if US markets have an UP day on Tuesday (rotation back towards the Weekly 50% level).

Tuesday:- Trend guide 3626.

Above 3626 the expectation is that the SPI is rotating back towards the Weekly 50% level. (1-3 days)


Below and target is 3573, below 3573 and price is pushing down towards Tuesday's 5-day lows @ 3530"


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SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

The SPI started with a 2x44 rally from 3626 upwards, stalled and reversed back down...

" SPI is moving into a double R44 range and stall and reverse...

With most UP moves I would like to see a 44 point reversal and then continue any further gains from a 44 point low and rising higher...Any push down towards 3626 this afternoon has to hold.

Below 3626 and probably head down towards 3573"

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The SPI reversed around the top after 11am and reversed back down into 3626.

If the SPI was going to rise upwards then it had to bounce off 3626 and continue higher.

If it broke 3626 then the SPI was heading down into 3573.

If 3572 couldn't hold after 3pm it was going down into the 5-day lows @ 3530.


Those market paths were mapped out, and it was simply trade the levels.


In conclusion:-

This price action reminds me of the blow-off top early November, after the rotation back into the November 50% level @ 4315.

The market rallied into the 5-day highs @ 4360, and then reversed back down with US markets reversing.

Therefore if this is a blow off bottom using the 5-day lows, then US markets need to reverse upwards on Tuesday back into their weekly 50% levels.

As I pointed out in the Weekly report, once these levels reach down on Monday-Tuesday, i'm looking for a reversal back towards the Weekly 50% level over the next 3 days.

But that's not going to happen if US markets have a down day on Tuesday.





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