S&P (e-mini ) 14th July 09 recap

"US markets are back above the Monthly 50% level but stalled under the Weekly 50% levels.

Monday high breakout, which should push up into Tuesday's highs, but based on the view of a 'stall pattern', I would have to favour a rotation back down into the 5-day 50% levels, which match the Monthly 50% levels.

Don't short-trade above the 5-day highs on Tuesday..."

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S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

There was a view that there would be a consolidating trading pattern between the Weekly 50% level and monthly 50% level and then the trend direction would be decided on Wednesday.

The 5-day pattern played out precisely, moving up into Tuesday's highs and reversing back down, but not down far enough, instead breaking higher using Monday's highs as support.

I did have a view of higher prices from Wednesday towards 920, but I wasn't expecting it to happen on Tuesday because of the Weekly 50% level, but there is another breakout on Tuesday so it should continue higher on Wednesday.

The rest of this week...

Having a look at the current price action this week and back above the higher timeframe 50% levels, it seems the dip last week below the July 50% levels was a 'fake break' and the market is going to go higher in July-August.

However, I prefer to wait until this week closes to get a better idea on the direction, especially after an reversal back down into the 5-day 50% level.


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