SPI Daily 8th July 2009 recap

"SPI continuing down into the Weekly lows @ 3647 and towards the July lows @ 3580.

Support:- 3664.


If the SPI opens closer to 3664-66 I would favour a move upwards in early trading, but price might struggle to get above 3693

Above 3693 and expectation of price 'gap' closure @ 3729 from Yesterday"

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SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

SPI opened lower today on Wednesday's support zone with the expectation that price would continue up in early trading towards 3693.

Around the same level resisted price for a number of hours until an afternoon rally completed the 'gap' closure from Monday.


Posted by Frank Dilernia

S&P (e-mini ) 7th July 09 recap

"Lower Weekly open and rising UP from support (July 50%) normally follows a 2-day UP move.

Two plays on Tuesday....

1. Either Support (yellow) sends the S&P into a higher daily close towards the Weekly 50% levels

2. Or the Thursday breakout from last week and 5-day 50% levels pushes the S&P back down, but 'down' won’t be confirmed unless the S&P is trading below Yellow support @ 890"

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S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

US markets continued to drop in the 3rd Quarter, but it wasn't a probability pattern that Tuesday would fall.

The normal price action would be a 2-day UP move back into higher timeframe resistance levels, using Monthly 50% level support, and then short-trade and higher daily open:- 3rd day sell using resistance

TUesday started early with Price rising up from support and moving 80 points up, but failed to break the 5-day 50% level.

However, there was a 'sell' pattern based on Last Thursday's breakout, but it needed to be confirmed with a break of support @ 890.

Once support failed on Tuesday, price followed the 5-day pattern into Tuesday's lows, and now the S&P is trading below July's 50% level....






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    • Posted by Frank Dilernia

    SPI Daily 7th July 2009 recap

    "Trading range:- 3795-99 (resistance


    3757 is the critical level today using the filters.

    Above and it’s heading back into the resistance levels.

    Below 3757, and it’s down into 3727"




    SPI WEEKLY & 5-DAY PATTERN

    Expectation the SPI is heading down towards July’s lows @ 3580, whilst price is below the 3rd Quarter and Weekly 50% levels.

    Based on the Weekly dynamics, it will probably take another week for the market to move down that far, with a max move this week:- 3647 Weekly lows.

    There is also a lower Weekly open (but no support), that could see the SPI back around the Weekly 50% level, depending on the price action in the US.

    There is also an expectation that the SPI ‘needs’ to swing back and retest last week’s Thursday 5-day breakout @ 3815.

    Around 3757 today was the spiral filter, and below that level was to focus on ‘shorts’ as part of a trend that is currently below the July 50% levels and heading down.

    But the 5-day lows @ 3729 supported the SPI today












    Posted by Frank Dilernia

    S&P (e-mini ) 6th July 09 recap

    "S&P is supported above the July 50% level.

    At this stage based on where the market is opening, along with a lower Weekly open I’m favouring a move back towards Thursday’s breakout.

    The maximum move upwards this week would be towards the Weekly 50% levels:- 2 day swing

    There is a 5-day breakout from Thursday that I’m looking for the S&P to retest, along with the 5-day levels."

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Lower Weekly open along with Monthly support (Trend), there is an expectation that a swing back towards Thursday's breakout @ 905 is in play.

    First swing is back into the 5-day 50% level, with a potential 2-day swing would take it back into the Weekly 50% level @ 911

    Wednesday should provide an ideal pattern if there is going to be more weakness in US markets in July, or the Monthly 50% levels push the markets back above the Weekly 50% level.

    Ideal pattern would be a higher Daily open and 'sell' resistance.





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    • Posted by Frank Dilernia

    SPI Daily 6th July 2009 recap

    "SPI opening below the higher timeframe 50% levels, therefore the bias is to look for 'short' trading set-ups whilst below those 3rd Quarter and Weekly 50% levels....

    Along with the expectation that price is heading down into the July lows @ 3584.

    Today:- Below 3770-79 and it's down, with an expectation that price should complete the move down into 3749….

    With potential move down into Monday’s support levels @ 3730-35"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI opened below 3770 therefore the first stage of the move was to complete 3749, with then a possibility of a move down into Monday's lows @ 3730-35.

    The best short set-ups will need to see the SPI move up and retest those higher timeframe 50% levels (Weekly 50% level) along with higher daily opens:- short trade resistance on a higher Daily open.

    And there is still the breakout from Thursday @ 3819 that I want to see retested before the market continues towards July’s lows @ 3580.

    However, that will depend on US markets on Monday, because these current 5-day lows on Monday could swing upwards overnight and back towards 3819....

    But if US markets continue down, then the ideal short trade set-ups in July to capture the down move might not eventuate, and if that happens then we have to rely on spiral filters to capture some of the moves intra-day, as was the case today.





    Posted by Frank Dilernia

    Index Futures & Stock Reports 4 July 09

    Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

    Australian Index (SPI) Futures

    http://austindex.blogspot.com/


    DOW and S&P Index Futures

    http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

    EUR/USD, AUD/USD

    http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


    OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

    http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



    Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update

    http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/





    Posted by Frank Dilernia

    SPI Daily 3rd July 2009 recap

    "5-day low breakout overnight @ 3819, as price is pushed down from the Weekly 50% level breaking the July support levels.

    5-day breakout has two patterns based on Resistance @ 3804

    Could see the SPI continue down into Friday's lows @ 3738.

    However,whenever price breaks those lows I would look for a swing back into those levels to confirm the break @ 3820.

    I'm not expecting that to happen to today, but I will be looking for that move early next week."


    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Another choppy trading day with little range length.

    My preferred options today didn't play out...

    Sell down on open towards 3738...

    or at least swing back into a higher 42-44 high @ 3804 and sell the market down again.

    Both failed the eventuate..

    Weekly report out tomorrow.




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    • Posted by Frank Dilernia

    S&P (e-mini ) 2nd July 09 recap

    "US markets range trading below the Weekly 50% level and monthly BP.

    Those ‘creeping 5-day lows’ are interesting, because an ideal pattern for the market to move higher would be to see US markets come down into those 5-day lows, bounce, and close back above the 5-day 50% level

    It is bearish if prices break the 5-day lows and close below them, as markets are slipping down into July 50% levels"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Even before the JOBS data came out, S&P futures were selling down from the 5-day 50% level and heading towards the 5-day lows on Thursday.

    Once the jobs figures came out, the 4 hour close below the 5-day lows, set-up further weakness down towards the July 50% levels.

    Public holiday in the US on Friday.....

    Weekly report out tomorrow



    Posted by Frank Dilernia

    SPI Daily 2nd July 2009 recap

    "The closer it opens above 3861 we should be trading upwards to complete the Range @ 3881.

    Once it gets to that level it is an each on the direction, with a bias to push up towards the 3905.

    Below 3881 will push downwards a random length towards 3856"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI trading between the July 50% level and the Weekly 50% level, which is what I thought would happen until it gets closer to Friday.

    I'm very bullish in the 3rd Quarter, however that can only happen if the SPI opens above 3907 next week, and begins to consolidate above that level over 2-3 days.

    For that to happen there needs to be a bias to rise upwards, but during the day things can be choppy for the rest of this week, which was the case today.

    Once price moved up into 3881 (spiral filter high), the market was choppy back down into July's 50% level.

    Let's see how tomorrow closes, as there will be no leads from the US on Friday because of indepenece day







    Posted by Frank Dilernia

    DOW Futures 1st July 2009 recap

    "The DOW is starting the new Month below higher timeframe levels, but on Wednesday at this stage they are starting the day above the 5-day levels.

    No probability pattern on Wednesday, as Wednesday could remain range bound between the 50% levels and the highs."



    DOW Weekly and 5-day 50% level

    Early rally saw the DOW and S&P move up from the 5-day 50% level and back into the highs....

    Resulting in a range bound trading day below higher timeframe 50% levels.




    Posted by Frank Dilernia
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