SPI Daily 8th October 2009 recap

"At this stage the expectation is that the SPI will continue towards the 3-day cycle highs @ 4768.

Once there is a daily close above the 3-day cycle, then I favour a 2-day reversal back down into the Weekly 50% levels.

Thursday Support 4697-85 "

Premium Trader




SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

SPI completes the same moves as the S&P with a swing back into the
3-day cycles (Thursday’s highs)

A close above this level today (4763) and it will swing the 3-day
cycle around, and even though I’m bullish in the 4th Quarter I’ll be
looking for any hint of a short-term reversal pattern from tomorrow back into
support levels.

That reversal down will depend on price action in the US around resistance levels.

I wanted to see the S&P 500 close above the 3-day highs @ 1055
(closed above Wednesday), and then look for a short-term
reversal into support levels from the next day (Thursday)

This should hopefully provide another swing support for a
continuation upwards in October and complete the breakout and
extend pattern from July.

However, a lower Weekly open from the 3-week lows
can often continue higher into Friday, as the line of
least resistance from September has disappeared and price is following the
market dynamic in October.

So the short-term reversal pattern that I want to see on Thursday might not happen.






  • Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis

  • Index Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & Forex

  • Subscribe to the Trader Premium

  • http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html



    • Posted by Frank Dilernia

    S&P (e-mini ) 7th October 09 recap

    "Rest of this week will have an UP bias, but there can also be a down day during this week.

    The down day will normally occur after the daily close above the 3-day cycle highs.

    Based on market dynamics:- if price comes down into the 5-day 50% level I would lean towards Wednesday moving up into the highs:- higher daily close and above the 3-day cycle"

    Premium Report


    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Higher daily close above 1055, but sadly price didn't come down into support to trade the higher Daily close.

    The 3-day cycle changes and at this stage I would like to see a 2-day reversal/stall pattern on Thursday/Friday

    Even though I have a view of higher prices in the 4th Quarter, a 2-day reversal pattern and a Friday close above the Weekly 50% levels can set-up another move upwards next week using the Weekly 50% levels as support.

    Posted by Frank Dilernia

    SPI Daily 7th October 2009 recap

    US markets follow the move towards the 3-day cycle highs, and today is about whether the SPI follows the same pattern @ 4768 or remains range bound once again below the 5-day 50% level

    Trend guide 4661 (5-day 50% level)

    Support 4645

    Premium Report




    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Same pattern on the SPI as the S&P 500: - move above the 5-day 50% level and price is looking to swing back towards the 3-day cycle highs @ 4768 (maybe in sycom)

    The move down into the 3-week lows didn’t play out the same as US markets, but the SPI will follow the price action of the S&P, instead risng up from the Weekly 50% level, along with the expectation of higher prices in the 4th Quarter.

    A Daily close above 4678 and I would be looking for a 2-day reversal pattern back down, and the following weekly 50% level will be trailing support levels for next week





    Posted by Frank Dilernia

    S&P (e-mini ) 6th October 09 recap

    "3-week low support and an early rotation back into 1038 in the S&P.

    Last Friday 5-day low support favours a 2-day reversal pattern upwards, and often that reversal pattern is towards the 3-day cycle highs @ 1055.

    If the S&P had closed above 1039 I would look for a trending move towards 1055"

    Premium Report




    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Expectation of a 4th Quarter up move after reaching the 3-week lows last week, however based on Monday’s close below the 1039, I was expecting a 3-day drop pattern and then trend to continue higher from Thursday.

    However, once above 1039 on Tuesday the 2nd day reversal pattern back towards 1055 played out.

    At this stage US markets look well supported with an expectation price should follow the last leg of the July breakout pattern into October highs.

    If the trend is going to continue higher, then we need to see a daily close above 1055 and then a short-term 2-3 day consolidation above 1039.


    Posted by Frank Dilernia

    SPI Daily 6th October 2009 recap

    "At this stage my view is that Tuesday can continue to remain in a sideways pattern.


    4654-56 is the September highs last week, and in theory should become a resistance level, however the weekly 50% level @ 4589 could end up supporting the SPI

    Tuesday's levels resistance @ 4645- 54"



    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Early rise up into resistance and a push back down into the Weekly 50% level @ 4589.

    I have a view that the trend will continue higher in the 4th Quarter, but I would still like to see the market come down into the 3-week lows.

    However, that will depend on the price action in the US because those markets have already hit their 3-week lows.





    Posted by Frank Dilernia

    S&P (e-mini ) 5 October 09 recap

    "As per Weekly report, my view is that price will remain range bound until the 3-day highs drop below the monthly balance point 1039.

    Friday 5-day lows support price I would look for a 2-day reversal pattern from a lower Weekly open and a higher move. This is usually helped by a support level.

    The only support level at the moment is the daily channel (yellow)"

    Premium Report



    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    3-week low support and an early rotation back into 1038.

    As per my ideal pattern, I would like to see the 3-day cycles drop down
    and match 1038 and then look for any breakouts if US markets are going
    to go higher in the 4th Quarter.

    3-day cycles @ 1055.

    Tuesday is either going to stall below 1039, and then see the 3-day
    cycles drop down on Wednesday, and then the next set-up will be
    on Thursday.

    or Tuesday goes looking for the 3-day cycles @ 1055, as last week's
    support has been validated and rising up from a lower Weekly open.

    However, based on today's close below 1039 I don't favour the happening.
    If Monday had closed above 1039, then a move towards 1055 is more likely.


    • Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis
  • Index Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & Forex
  • Subscribe to the Trader Premium
  • http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html



    • Posted by Frank Dilernia

    SPI Daily 5th October 2009 recap

    "Expectation that the SPI is heading down into the 3-week lows as per Weekly Report.

    Today:- often a lower Weekly open can see price move upwards over the next 2-days using the Weekly 50% level as support, but not when the previous Friday breaks out.

    This normally see price move down into Monday's lows

    Resistance 4630-35"



    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern


    Early rise upwards hitting resistance levels and a move down into Monday's lows.

    The move into monday's lows was part of the 5-day breakout pattern from Friday:- break and extend pattern.

    Expectation price is heading down into the 3-week lows



    Posted by Frank Dilernia

    Index Futures & Stock Reports 3 OCT 09

    Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

    Australian Index (SPI) Futures

    http://austindex.blogspot.com/


    DOW and S&P Index Futures

    http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

    EUR/USD, AUD/USD

    http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


    OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

    http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



    Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update



    • Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis
  • Index Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & Forex
  • Subscribe to the Trader Premium
  • http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html



    • Posted by Frank Dilernia

    S&P (e-mini ) 2nd October 09 recap



    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    S&P has moved down into the 3-week lows, which is the pattern that I wanted to see happen at the start of October.

    In a Bull market, this level will normally hold & form a support base over the next 3-days and then continue higher in the same month to complete the 3-monthly break and extend pattern from July into October/November highs.

    However, the S&P isn’t in a bull-market trend, all it has done is reverse back into the Yearly 50% level and reject back down.

    In a bull market what I would normally look for is the 3-day high range to drop below 1038 and then trade longs on the break. This is based on verifying support on a large timeframe (weekly), and then validating support in a lesser timeframe:- 3-day high breakout with an expectation that the October trend will continue.

    If the Trend is going to continue down then the same pattern can occur:- consolidate for 3-days below 1038 and then continue down once again towards the October 50% level.

    However, at this stage the important part was Friday remaining above 1012 and the 3-week lows, and Friday's support aorund the 5-day lows







    Posted by Frank Dilernia

    SPI Daily 2nd October 2009 part 2

    "Normally for the next UP leg to continue I would like to see prices back around the 3-week lows, the 3-week lows are much lower in the SPI @ 4474

    Therefore the 5-day lows need to breakout, with an expectation that price will move down 42-44 points"


    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Lower Friday open below the 5-day lows and I expected more weakness.

    Normally I would at least see a minimum move down 42-44 points outside the 5-day range, but most of the trading day remained consoldating.

    The SPI will move down towards 4474 depending on the price action in the US on Friday/Monday.


    Posted by Frank Dilernia

    DOW Futures Daily 1st Oct 2009

    "There is an expectation during the 4th Quarter that the market will continue higher during October/November,

    However, my preferred pattern before any continued UP trend would be to have a lower Weekly close and test the Weekly lows in the early part of the Month, and then continue higher in the later half of October/November"

    Premium Report





    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Early push down in October and into the Weekly lows.

    I have an expectation that US market will continue higher into October, but that's going to depend on how Friday closes.

    There is a potential move down into the October 50% level, however, if Friday & Monday ends up being supported around this week's lows @ 9398 (5-day low on Friday)

    Then I need to see a Weekly HOOK pattern back above 9581 (next Week), to get the last leg of the July breakout pattern to complete higher in October.

    Note:- it not a forgone conclusion that the last leg will complete upwards because the S&P has failed at the 3-year 50% level (precise highs) and now below the Yearly 50% level @ 1038.

    Therefore next week's HOOK has to be back above 1038 on the S&P




    • Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis

  • Index Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & Forex

  • Subscribe to the Trader Premium

  • http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html



    • Posted by Frank Dilernia
    Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)