SPI Daily 8th December 2009 recap



SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Major support on the SPI around these levels in December, and in the 5-day pattern the brown filter has been the driving the SPI lower since last Friday.

Early support around the higher timeframe 50% levels, and the expectation was that price would push upwards into 4696 to complete the R42 high.

Once around that level it became a random pattern, either price continues higher and follows a move higher on Tuesday, or price drifts back down into support levels and consolidates.

As been the case since last friday, the brown filter has been capping the market from rising higher.

Last Week had a bias to move upwards in the first couple of days because there was an expectation that US markets would move upwards in the first couple of days.

At this stage the SPI is consolidating around support levels waiting for US markets to complete the 2nd stall/reversal day on Tuesday.

Once Tuesday it should give traders a better idea on which way the market is going into the end of the year.












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DOW Futures Daily 7th Dec 2009 recap

"Expectation of the trend continuing higher towards the December highs…

However, because of Friday’s price action I’m expecting the first 2-days to move down. (Monday and Tuesday)

The Trend guide on Monday is simply the blue filter once again @ 10415"

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DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

Monday’s expected down day has ended up as a ‘stalling day’, with the Weekly 50% level supporting the market @ 10341.

As pointed out, market dynamics favours a move upwards to complete the December highs, as price is trading above the higher timeframe 50% levels, along with the close above the November highs

I’m expecting 1 more day to move down towards support levels, or Tuesday could end up as a similar trading day as Monday and remain above 10341 continuing higher thereafter.

However, based on the price action in the S&P 500 and the 5-day levels, it's beginning to look very similiar to last Week:- Monday stalls and then Tuesday moves higher.

I would have preferred more selling on Monday, because whilst price is below 10341, there’s more chance of a daily HOOK pattern occurring from Tuesday onwards, which would provide far more probability of a higher weekly close than current price action.






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SPI Daily 7th December 2009 recap

"SPI is currently above the higher timeframe 50% levels and in a 3-day BUY cycle

Based on the current price action I'm bullish for this week, with the expectation of a higher Weekly close, but keep in mind that I'm also looking for a 2-day down move in US markets at the start of this week.

Support 4701-17

Below support and expectation is a push down into the monthly 50% levels"

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SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern.

SPI has tested support levels along with the Monday lows @ 4656

Based on higher timeframe patterns I would normally look higher moves as part of a 2-month wave pattern

However, I have the view that there is a potential 2-day down move in US markets (random length)




Posted on 27th November….

"This is a bear pattern to keep an eye on…

If next week moves upwards and closes on it’s highs on Friday, and the Week after that price reverses down and begins trading below the December 50% levels, then the SPI is likely to continue down, as price goes looking for the Yearly 50% level in 2010"

This is the week that I was talking about, except the SPI didn’t close on it’s highs on Friday (and 5-day highs), but the US markets did with the 5-day highs on Friday, and expected 2-day reversal.

As I mentioned in the Weekly Report….

"Depending on the price action in US markets early next week, there could be early weakness in the first two days, but if price remains above support I’m expecting the market to continue higher into a higher Friday close"

"Even though the UP trend during this month is expected to rise higher, (2-month wave pattern) I’m also expecting a larger trend reversal into 2010 (read previous reports)"

At this stage it’s too early to tell whether this week is the week that does reverse down, because I didn’t get the 5-day high on Friday in the SPI.

The SPI is at major support levels in this up trend, my only concern is the price action in the US markets on Monday and Tuesday even though US markets are well supported and trading above key levels.






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    • Posted by

    Index Futures & Stock Reports 5 Dec 09

    Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

    Australian Index (SPI) Futures

    http://austindex.blogspot.com/


    DOW and S&P Index Futures

    http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

    EUR/USD, AUD/USD

    http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


    OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

    http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



    Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update





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    • Posted by

    DOW Futures Daily 4 Dec 2009 recap

    Two patterns on Friday….

    "Blue channels resistance for a move down into Friday's lows, and these lows match the Weekly 50% level, with the potential to close around the 5-day 50% level.

    Above the blue channel and price will move into Friday’s highs…

    A ‘spike’ upwards on Friday and I’ll get bearish, as I would look for a 2-day reversal down from next week"

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    DOW futures and 5-day pattern.

    At the start of the trading day I was bearish because price was opening below the 5-day 50% level and 10387, with an expectation that price would push down into Friday’s lows.

    Based on a probability pattern I wasn’t expecting a move upwards on Friday, but I acknowledged that if there was a 'Spike' into the highs on Friday, this will more often than not continue down at the start of next week into Support levels.

    I do have a view of higher prices in December, as part of a 2-month wave pattern upwards during this 3-month cycle, and that could occur using next week’s 50% level as support.

    However, at the start of next week I’m leaning towards a continuation down into Support levels, as part of Friday’s spike & resistance pattern (2-day reversal)

    If 'Support' doesn’t break on Tuesday (Wednesday trading below) then I would have to favour a higher weekly close thereafter.

    Confirmed with a Daily ‘HOOK’ pattern back above the Weekly 50% level and a continuation towards the December highs.

        Posted by

        SPI Daily 4th December 2009 recap

        "As pointed out previously, after a change of the 3-day cycle price can move into a 2-day reversal pattern back down into higher timeframe support levels"

        Downside would be 42 points, with a potential move and another 42 points towards higher timeframe 50% levels.

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        SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern.

        With today’s open below 4751 the expectation was that price would try and move down 42 points.

        This was also part of a 2-day reversal pattern after a change of the 3-day cycle on Wednesday, and any further moves down would be towards the higher timeframe 50% levels (December)

        Depending on the price action in US markets on Friday, I still have the view that markets will have one last push upwards next week and then probably top out for 2009.

        Of course things change next week if price opens below the December 50% levels, but I don’t have a high probability ‘short’ set-up in the larger cycles to pre-empt a major reversal Patten at this stage during this 3-month cycle.

        Only a short-term 2- day reversal during this Weekly cycle.





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        • Posted by

        DOW Futures Daily 3rd Dec 2009 recap

        "Either price continues towards the December highs, or Thursday is part of a 2-day reversal pattern using the Weekly highs are resistance.

        Yesterday's first day reversal had no follow through on the downside

        Trade the levels as shown in the 5-day pattern"

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        DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

        Weekly highs resistance and reversal pattern confirmed with price trading below 10459 (yellow)

        Initial reversal target is the 5-day 50% level @ 10360.

        As often seen, ‘no control’ daily bars (circled) can often lead into daily reversal bars the following day, which was part of a 2nd day reversal after a change in the 3-day cycle.

        Confirmed with a cross-over of the Yellow filter back down into the 5-day 50% level, which matches the original 3-day high breakout.


        Posted by

        SPI Daily 3rd December 2009 recap

        "Today's trading is about whether the SPI continues with an upward bias in December, or moves in a reversal pattern back down into support levels.

        Whenever there's a lower spiral point (R42 low) it is often hard to 'short' trade because price will normally will try and rise upwards.

        Because the R42 is still trading in Wednesday's range, to move into Thursday's range the R42 range needs to complete. That means that Wednesday's levels are still used as resistance on Thursday"

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        SPI Weekly and 5-day

        Small range day trading above the 3-day high @ 4761 and below Wednesday's resistance levels.

        My gut feeling was that Wednesday's highs were going to stall price and Thursday would actually have a reversal day down into 4722.

        Instead the reversal day ended up a 'stalling' day above the breakout @ 4761

        For the market to continue higher, the R42 range had to complete @ 4802, which in theory would have been a breakout of the 5-day high from Wednesday that would normally have continued higher and another 42 points into Thursday's highs.

        Sadly Thursday ended up neither, not down into 4722 or up into 4840


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        • Posted by

        S&P (e-mini ) 2nd Dec 09 recap

        "There isn't a breakout above Tuesday highs to confirm higher prices on Wednesday.

        And these current Weekly highs @ 1112 can resist price and push the market back down into a consolidation pattern:- 2-day reversal

        Therefore this might result in Wednesday's higher open (weekly highs) and continue down into the 5-day 50% levels, as these levels are first support zones on Wednesday"        .




        S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

        Resistance around the Weekly highs on Wednesday but without the follow through and continuation down into the support levels in the 5-day range.

        Wednesday becomes the first day reversal pattern, and while price is below the Weekly highs Thursday should be part of a 2nd day reversal (random length)

        Keeping in mind that there is an expectation that price is still trying to move towards 1126 in December.






        Posted by

        SPI Daily 2nd December 2009 recap

        "At this stage I'm treating Wednesday as a consolidating trading day that's going to close above 4761...

        but hopefully with some early selling pressure down using Wednesday’s highs as resistance:- 4791-803

        Downside 42 points into 4764"

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        SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

        Early rise up into Wednesday's highs and a reversal back down 42 points, closing above 4761.

        Today is the first day in a number of weeks that the SPI is above the 3-day cycle highs (4761), with a view that price can continue towards the December highs later this month.

        However, based on the 5-day highs Wednesday my expectation was a range bound day to close above the 3-day highs @ 4761

        What might happen now with today’s close above 4761 and the change of the 3-day cycle into a BUY is either price is going to continue higher on the back of US markets rising towards the December highs...

        or Price is going reverse back down into the monthly 50% levels once again.

        Whenever there's a change in the 3-day cycle, price can often move into a 2-day reversal pattern back down to retest support levels and then continue upwards in a new 3-day BUY cycle thereafter.

        A 2-day reversal is back down into the December 50% levels over the next 2-days (or even lower depending on the price action in the US markets.

        It’s obvious that the SPI is going to be influenced at this stage by the direction the S&P 500 takes:- read S&P (e-mini report below)

        S&P direction:- 2-day reversal or continuation towards 1126






        Posted by

        S&P (e-mini ) 1st Dec 09 recap

        "Start of December and the bias is to continue towards the December highs @ 1126

        This could happen from today and move upwards over the next 3-days....

        Whilst above the blue channel @ 1094 it’s up in the S&P 500"

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        S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

        After last week’s reversal into the Weekly 50% level on Friday the bias was to continue higher in December with a target @ 1126

        This was based on the 4th Quarter target from October, that now has a matching monthly target in December at the same level.

        Today’s trading had a bias to move upwards and back into the Weekly highs.

        These highs @ 1112 will either resist price and push the market back down into a consolidation pattern until the end of the week....

        Or continue with a ‘3-day UP move’ and complete the target @ 1126 this week.


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