SPI Report 20th November

8:42am

SPI has followed the pattern of reversing down into November 50% levels (6369)

These levels are major support levels for this month, but just like the US markets where support followed for nearly 3-weeks before breaking lower, the same can apply in Australia.

Yesterday I was bullish on the SPI, but I was only bullish if Monday opened lower and we could all trade upwards into 6568 and then hold. However the higher open had taken care of not BUYING the market, and as a 'day-trader' then only way I was going to trade any longs was from R44 lows, and along with the Dilernia-Pivot @ 6583 provided a short-trade back down and into R44 lows.

With US markets trading below their 5-day 50% levels at the time I didn't move into longs on those R44 lows, but switched my attention to trading US markets instead.

Today:- There are two gaps, the recent lows @ 6450, which can send the market down if it aligns with a 44 point spiral top, but the gap that I'm looking for is 6481-6500 (today-tomorrow)

At this stage I favour trading longs up into the First pivot (6451) and hopefully higher, a bearish pattern is 44 points up and reversal back down, taking out the 5-day lows. An Open around the 5-day lows gives traders a potential 44 point up move into the lower pivot before Risk increases.

Risk is 6451 (Dilernia Pivot)

DONT TRADE longs below 6417 and the 5-day lows

US report 19th November part 2

Both US markets are following the price action of moving straight down on Monday from the 5-day 50% level and heading down into the Weekly extended levels and November lows....

US report continues below....

Both US markets heading down into the 3-day lows, breaking it and find support around the 5-day dynamic lows...

Full US report later.....

FOREX REPORT 19th November EUR/USD

I was looking for a Sell down to continue on Friday.. But whilst that set-up didn’t eventuate on Friday, below Friday’s lows next week and below Weekly 50% level the trend is down, and a similar pattern as GBP this week.(16th November)

Monthly highs still playing resistance on the Euro, and early Monday there is a break of the intra-day cycles. The 'probability-move' is back towards the Weekly 50% level:- a bullish set-up is a bounce off these levels finding support and closing above, with next day moving higher.

A weak pattern will be a break and continuation down back towards last weeks lows, confirming the change of 3-day cycle and below the Weekly 50% levels.

Weekly drops in forward timeframes favors down moves, but must be manage with intra-day cycles.

US report 19th November

"The 5-day 50% level, as show above (red lines), are going to be a critical factor in next weeks trading because it’s going to set up the next 3-days of trading. Above and it will head back towards the Weekly 50% level.... bearish pattern will just sell-off on Monday from the 5-day 50% level and head down (Weekend report)"

At this stage before Monday's open, US markets are pushing downward from the 5-day 50% level with the expectation that any follow through this week is down towards the November lows which also match the Weekly extended levels.

US report continues below...

Push down from the 5-day 50% level and expectation that price will go back down a re-test the 3-day lows. (blue channels)

These 3-day lows can play some support during Monday's trading, but below these 3-day lows don't look for any longs today, as price is heading towards the Weekly lows.

At this stage there are no LONG set-ups.

SPI Report 19th November part 3

3:15pm

This is what I wanted to see how valid any UP move in the SPI is going to be this week. The Push down from Risk levels @ 5683 and down into an R44 low will align with the 5-day 50% level.

A strong market will see some buying support come into the market around these lows and push back prices towards the highs.

A weak market will continue down into the Gap…

There are still no leads from US markets, as they are both hovering around the 5-day 50% levels, and ES is currently below it.

FOREX REPORT 19th November GBP/USD

GBP:-

The November 50% level is supporting the market, and this week there is an expectation that price is rotating back towards the 3-day highs and Weekly 50% level.

These upper levels will confirm the strength of the reversal and break back above with a Daily close above it on Monday/Tuesday. Or it will deny any up move this week, and actually send the market down as it follows the trend defined by the Weekly 50% level.

These are the same patterns that have been occurring in US and Australian Markets:- Weekly lower open swings back into the Weekly 50% level before the trend continues down..

At this stage it’s too early to tell which direction it’s going to follow but the trailing support intra-day to help clarify any trades this week and help minimise Risk.

SPI Report 19th November part 2

11:30am

SPI following Weekend analysis whist price is above the 5-day 50% level the expectation is that the market is heading back towards the 3-day highs.

A couple of stages that will need to see happen, a close above the Weekly 50% level 6611, will confirm part 1.

The 2nd stage would then need to see a close above the 3-day highs, and then I would think that a follow through on US markets would provide the spring board back towards 6737.

The only sad fact of today was the higher open to trade multiple contracts upwards into 6568 and then hold.

Price is hitting an Upper pivot @ 6583, but today's price action looks like it's just heading upwards...

Risk level on Monday is 6583..

SPI report 19th November 2007

If the market is rising upwards from the R87 Spiral point then the expectation is that should complete the move upwards.

Already SPI traders have a bullish set-up on Monday’s open, but where Monday opens defines the ‘risk’ trade, because a higher open leaves the BUY trade open to risk, because price can actually rotate back down and into the R44 gap after completing the 87 point range from Friday @ 6568.

So hopefully it opens closer to 6525 and provides traders with better ‘risk’ levels for a trade upwards. Traders want to trade up into that level at 6568 and then hold with hopefully the market continuing upwards. (premium report 17th November)

9:54am

SPI has opened too high this morning and already completed the move to 6568. Trading longs around these highs this morning are open to RISK