SPI Report 27th Nov 2007 part 3

12:55

How often has this pattern appeared on ‘gap’ trading….

Double R22 range up move, reversal back down into another R22 low and swing back upwards into another R22 top until it completes the R44 move upwards…..

Until it moves into an R44 spiral-top I favour trading longs, but I understand that the overall trend is bearish, but currently supported around higher timeframe 50% levels. I won't be trading shorts today because it hasn't completed the Spiral top,

re-entry 6379 partial exit will be @ 6396 R22 (stops below todays lows) and holding for R44

SPI Report 27th Nov 2007 part 2

Gap Trading:- Lower open and expectation for market to move into gap closure @6425. Spiral top 44 point highs @ 6414-6424 and longs are open to Risk.

11:00am

Risk level is now 6390 (pivot) for the rest of the trading day.

Yesterday’s gap filled @ 6383.

I don’t have a view for the rest of the day other than this lower open filling the gap on the upside.

Three scenarios for the rest of the trading day.

1. Continuation upwards into another R87 spiral top, this is confirmed with major support around the higher timeframe November 50% levels, and then continuation upwards for the rest of the week, as it moves towards the December 50% level. (Weekly Report)

2. Stalling day confirmed with major higher timeframe support levels and a consolidating day of 44-point swings after Spiral top confirmed

3. Gap filled and R44 Spiral top reversing back down and remaining below 6390 today and heading lower towards 6328 and 5-day lows.

See how the rest of the day plays out.

Partial exit 6402 (double R22 top)

SPI Report 27th Nov 2007

Yesterday followed the price pattern that we have been seeing for a number of weeks now:- the rotation back towards the 3-day highs and Weekly 50% level before the trend continues down.

Monday's Price pattern was what I was looking for to happen on Tuesday this week from a lower Daily open. We have the lower Daily open today, however the price pattern has already completed.

With US markets selling off on Monday, there is the potential that the Australian Market could make a move down towards 6251 and the Quarterly 50% level on any further weakness.

Personally I would rather see the next wave down occurring from December 50% levels, than just selling off this week.

Today:- Risk is going to be 6425



The R87 has a 'gap' open, normally the market will move upwards into the gap. It doesn't favour selling from open, however I do expect that 6425 is going to play a resistance zone today.

It's going to depend on where the market opens...

A lower open on 'gaps' will normally push upwards into the R87 gap or an R44 spiral top.

A higher open and gap closure and the potential for a downtrending day is a possibility as it follows the 5-day dynamic range...

Premium report to follow...

US report 26th Nov 2007 part 3

DOW and ES intra-day...

I was looking for a down day on Monday, but I didn't expect such a move down into the 5-day lows again.

Lower Daily close would naturally try and rotate upwards on Tuesday, but the strength of the trend is going to be defined by the 5-day 50% level on Tuesday...

Full report later...

US report 26th Nov 2007 part 2

US markets are still defined by the 3-day highs and Weekly 50% level, and this push lower on Monday is what has been happening on most Mondays over the past few week...

"Mondays:- Each week has seen Monday push lower, and if any up move in the markets is going to happen it happens on Tuesday. If this is going to do the same then the 3-day highs (blue channels) is going to push prices lower (random length-stalling day)

(Lower Daily close followed by an UP move from a lower Daily open the next day.(Weekend Report)"

The Lower Daily close and Tuesday's 5-day 50% level is going to be the guide on any reversal back towards Monday's highs once again.

A break below last week's lows and market path is towards the Weekly lows...

Full report later..

US report 26th November 2007

DOW and ES-minis

US markets rotating upwards from November lows and heading towards the 3-day and Weekly 50% levels. (follow from Weekly report)

Just like what has happened on the SPI today, you don't want to try and fight the trend if markets are trading above certain levels. (Weekly 50%)



A higher open on Monday will probably try and fade the open down. Any push down would normally occur from the Monday (blue Channel highs).

Any rotation back would be towards the 5-day 50% level and exit.

Day traders look for 45-51 point moves on DOW and 4.25 moves on ES (double Ranges) if short-trading.

Don't short above 3-day highs.

SPI Report 26th November part 3

13.55

SPI has followed the expectation of higher prices this week, and now price is hitting the Weekly 50% level @ 6477.

This level has defined the direction of most global markets on the way down in November, it's going to define the trend this week.

A confirming bullish market would continue higher and closing above the 3-day highs. That would be the first sign that the trend has change when both occur, especially as it rises upwards from the previous 87 point high.

The previous 87 point range supported the market @ 6422, and another follow through upwards of 87 points matches the 3-day highs and closure above it @ 6507..

FOREX Report 26th November 2007

GBP/USD

Currency looks range bound in November, with only this week left before new Monthly Dynamics are verified. The November 50% level has supported the currency this month and the new December 50% level will be critical in defining the trend next month.


Friday's partial exit at the top of the 90-pip zone got traders out, however the rotation back down on Friday was more than I expected, taking out breakeven stops from entry.

5-day 50% level is supporting price, with the expectation that the next move will be towards the 90 pip high once again, before Risk increases. (partial exit or exit at 90-pip high)

No Major set-ups for the rest of the week.

EUR-USD

Trailing support has confirmed the up trend, however Friday's reversal and now Monday's price action is pushing price down into the Weekly 50% level.

No trades as price is trading around 90 pip spiral lows.

SPI Report 26th November part 2

10:30am

Higher Daily open coming down into an R44 low @ 6417.

With any further down move into gap @ 6383.

Even though an R44 low can often provide a swing back towards the highs or back towards the pivot highs, a lower daily close followed by a lower Daily open will provide better longs in the market tomorrow

Partial exit @ 6440 (r22) and 6423 (top of the R87 range @ 6422) Neutral position.

Not trading longs today...

SPI Report 26th November

SPI completes rotation into major support around November 50% level @ 6363, and this is also the 2007 Yearly high. Whilst price remains above the higher timeframe 50% levels, then the expectation is that the Australian market will move higher in 2008 towards the upper levels using Yearly timeframe dynamics.

There are two major support levels:- 2007 Yearly high breakout, confirmed with the November 50% level. The current price action at this stage confirms major support around November 50% levels, and often this provides the next 2-month Upward wave pattern.

Short-term:- Expectation is upward next week:- lower weekly closed followed by price rising from a lower weekly open using higher timeframe support. (Weekly report)

9.00am

Today:- Risk 6437

Even though the expectation is for the market to move higher this week, today the SPI will open higher which also aligns with Dilernia-Pivot tops and the 5-day 50% level, so buying these highs today is open to risk.

When we look at most upmoves, they are occuring on Tuesday, after push lower on Monday. Best longs will normally come around a R44 spiral point low or Tuesday....

With the higher open, Upper Dilernia Pivots, and 5-day 50% level, I won't be Buying the open.