SPI Trading 15th January 2008 part 2

10:14am

SPI push upwards before reversing 11 points and moving down towards a 22 point reversal.

We can already see the difference in the R44 spiral tops, last week there wasn't any higher moves early, each spiral top pushed down...

I'm not sure how the rest of the day is going to pan out, below 6031 and expectation the R44 will complete...

A 22 point down move could even attract buyers and push the market upwards towards 6052+

Entry 6036 partial exit 6026 (breakeven stops)

looking for r44 completion

SPI Trading 15th January 2008

8:30am

Market supported around January lows and expectation that market is moving into a sideways Weekly pattern...

The push down into the Weekly low yesterday @ 5920 and reversal has seen the market reverse back to the 5-day 50% level @ 6031....

A higher open today has often favour 'selling' the open (higher spiral) with the expectation the there would be a 44 point down move and follow the overall trend down. This is still a possibility today in a downward trending market, but as I mentioned in the Weekend report, the expectation of this happening this week will drop because of Weekly rotation....

Risk 5-day 50% level 6031.


Note: Lower Weekly open and a 2-3 day reversal can take price back towards the 3-day highs, but today I’m focusing on the First Risk level and trading it either direction, with any upside towards the next level up towards 6052-9...

FOREX GBP/USD 14th January 08 part 3

GBP is following the Trend down:- This week’s trend target is 1.94020, with further weakness down into 1.93320 during January…

On Monday, the focus was use the 90 pip spiral top and trade down, once it completes the 90 pip bottom @ 1.95575, it could move into a 90 pip rotation pattern (swing back upwards) or it will hopefully continue down on Tuesday towards the lows following the overall trend…

This analysis is valid unless price breaks above the past 3-day highs on Tuesday.

As I’ve mentioned before I don’t know how long people hold their trades for, but if you are in it for more than a day trade, the strategy remains, partial exit on or just before the 90 pip completion and hold with stops above today’s highs, and then out any open positions whenever and whatever higher timeframe level, as shown in the chart above…..

FOREX GBP/USD 14th January 08 part 2

GBP has pushed up early on Monday and trading around the 5-day 50% level...

with 90 pip completion and spiral top...the Risk level is set for Monday @ 1.9647

Risk trading against either side of that level....

E-mini Report 14th January 08 part 2

I was looking for a pushed down into the Weekly lows early this week, and they have pushed the e-minis up to 1427 and then down to 1358 (70 points) in the space of
3-minutes during the night session...

I have no idea why or what happen but i'll be interested in what happens on Monday......

The DOW is drifted down, but nothing like that.....

NOTE: Globex has cancelled all trades during that time above 1420 and below 1398

DOW E-mini Report 14th Jan 2008

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Please Read the DOW and S&P Weekly before proceeding...

US markets are supported around the January lows in both markets, but there is an expectation that price will move down into the Extreme of the Weekly ranges.

This was the same price action that occured in the Australian market on Monday....

This week's expectation is range bound between Weekly lows and Weekly 50% level (choppy trading)

Whilst price is below the 5-day 50% level, expectation that price is moving down....

No probability trades on Monday....

SPI Trading 14th January 2008 part 3

11.40

Looking at the current price action on the SPI, it looks like it's going to be following a sideways Weekly pattern around the January lows....

The move down into the Weekly channels lows @ 5920 and large UP-Swing, illustrates this, and it wouldn't surprise me to see a 'hook' day today...and head back towards the 5-day 50% level tomorrow (2-day stall reversal in the first couple of days in the week)

The overnight moves are going to be dictated by US markets, and if price opens below 5920 tomorrow, then we could be heading down into those Quarterly targets in the Weekly report much quicker than expected....

I'm still going to let the market play it out today and get back into the next trade tomorrow...

FOREX GBP/USD 14th January 2008

Overall Trend is down but has found support around the Quarterly lows @ 1.9504...

Any further weakness in GBP this week and expectation that January lows is the next level down.

Monday is opening near the 5-day 50% level, when price opens in the middle of the range on Monday the market can go either way:- push back down into Monday's support @ 1.9488...

Because price is already below this, then that's the view for Monday, at this stage...

There is no high probability trade on Monday because of where it is trading ;- resistance 1.9669

Don't trade shorts above resistance because it is viewed as a breakout....

SPI Trading 14th January 2008 part 2

10:48

SPI Sold off from 5972 and has moved down into the Weekly lows @ 5920.....

Whilst price is trading outside the January lows of 5962 risk of trading longs during this week is open to Risk.....


Market opened below 5972 moved up 11 points and reversed down...

it wasn't until the 22 upswing that I entered shorts because of the January lows...

Entered 5960 and added 5952

exitted @ 5929 and 44 point swing lows... and last @ 5921...

no more trades today..

SPI Trading 14th January 2008

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Please Read the Australian Index Weekly Report before proceeding....


Expectation that January lows will support the market, and move into a consolidation Weekly timeframe. It is also a Weekly timeframe that is opening on its low, which often favours a 2-3 day counter-trend move upwards and back towards the 3-day highs...

Risk 5972....

Ideally I would like the market to reverse perfectly off the Risk levels and move upwards, but I also know that below and it could be moving down into higher timeframe extreme ranges....5920 (Weekly extremes)

Note:- 5972 is not Monday's 5-day low, it's Friday's, so it's high Risk trading longs below 5972 today..