SPI Trading 19th February 2008 part 2

10:07

Resistance/sell zones 5654.....

Expectation gap closure of 44 point downward fade.....

Each way bet ( no probability)

hits gap closure @ 5613-5605 and swings back upwards taking out highs....

Bearish pattern is to continue down below 5605 breaking 5-day 50% levels (down trending day- random length)

Entry S 5654 and added 5647

Partial exit 5634

Next exit 5617

Holding 1 lot into close or 5570

Even though there can be support around an R44 low and rising upwards:- above 5-day 50% level, i'd rather see if banking stocks are going to take our market down further with this sell zone.....

Stops @ 5647 after exit @ 5617

SPI Trading 19th February 2008

Presidents Day (public holiday) in the US and 'futures' in both the DOW and S&P still moved up towards the 5-day highs, and this will result in the SPI opening higher on Tuesday.

However there is a big stink hanging over the Australian market, and with the news of Northern Rock in the UK going broke and being bailed out by the UK government to the tune of $50 billion this isn't going to help Australian banking shares, and it's not going to help the overall Australian market.

This Week's entire set-up was based on Monday moving into a 2-3 day rally on the back of US markets rising also. When the market opened below the 5-day 50% on Monday the entire weekly set-up basically fizzed.....

Tuesday:-

With Sycom closed overnight it doesn't give me a good idea of where the market will open, all I can do is define the daily trend using the above levels....

Risk levels are the 5-day 50% level 5595

And important level is 5654.... this level has been resistance a number of times during the past two weeks and it can provide resistance on open on any R44 fade down.

Don't short trade above this level because of the expected move towards the 5-day highs...

No high probability trades other than using timeframe levels and spiral points

Note: My view was for a 1 day rally in US markets on Monday, whilst above the Weekly 50% level the trend remains up and it can continue higher.

A bearish pattern in the US is a drop on Tuesday back below the Weekly 50% level, if this is the case the downside target on the SPI is the Weekly 100% levels @ 5288, and not helped by banking stocks which make up the largest weighting in the Australian Index

DOW E-mini 18th Feb 2008 part 2

US markets have continued upwards before open, and hopefully remaining above the Weekly 50% level pushing up towards the 5-day highs..

The DOW R144 is hitting the 3-day 50% level @ 12402, but it needs to complete @ 12421

Bearish pattern is a completion of the 144 range bar high and reversing then down below the 5-day 50% level and Support:- pushing down from the Weekly 50% level.

FOREX GBP/USD 18th Feb 08 part 2

GBP pushed down from the Weekly 50% level and breaking the 3-day lows...

Expectation price will remain outside the 3-day range on Monday and push down to the 5-day extended lows on Tuesday....

Resistance 1.9542

DOW E-mini 18th February 2008

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Please read US Weekly report before proceeding.....

US markets opening below Weekly 50% level (bearish)

Expectation of an UP move on Monday is simply going to be defined by the support levels (intra-day)

As we can see from today's trading in the Australian market, all it takes is Monday to move below the 5-day 50% level and the market continues down with the overall trend.

The support levels are shown above, and the expectation is that price will push upwards on the 3rd day after the 2-day reversal last week....

Below Support and it's moving down into 5-day lows, but that's not my view for Monday.

I'm expecting weakness in the US markets this week, but preferably from a higher close on Monday, and then moving down on Tuesday....

SPI Trading 18th Feb 08 part 4 RECAP

15:20

SPI consoidating under the 5-day 50% level, and failing to push upwards from 14:36.

Further weakness expected into close...Financial Stocks are dragging the market lower.


Price moved upwards into the R44 high @ 5571 but failed by 1 tick to reach a Sell zone (high 5570)....with another added short potential around the next R22 high again...

Haven't trade again since this morning, as I was waiting for 5571 to reach.. (spiral top)

Next Trade tomorrow..

SPI Trading 18th Feb 08 part 3 RECAP

SPI Recap 11:38

Banks are being heavily sold down today and it's dragging the market down. (Stock report banking stocks last week)

Today opened below the 5-day 50% level pushing the market down 44 points and into an R87 Spiral low.... this is either going to send the market upwards, or it's going to stall around the R44 high 5-day 50% level and move back down into close.... each way bet.

Market opened lower and pused down 22 points:- enterted longs ....

Long 5558

Market moved up 11 points and reversed down (stopped 5557 -1)

Market chopped around and provide a R22 high Rejection trade with the expectation that price was moving down from the 5-day 50% level and into 44 point lows @ 5532

Short 5564 exit 5551 and 5540

The market moved down into an R87 low and R44 spiral bottom but I didn't switch into Longs because of price trading below Risk levels...

On Sidelines as I'm not going to trade longs trades below the 5-day 50% level today...

FOREX GBP/USD 18th February 2008

GBP rising upwards from Quarterly support, however trading below the Weekly 50% level on Monday....

GBP pushed down on Friday and is trading around the 5-day 50% level....., this is the trend guide for monday and any further weakness is a push down into Monday's lows:- Support or breakout

I don't have a view for Monday until the R110 range completes from Friday:- down and it matches Monday's lows and provides an ideal 'Riskl level'

A push upwards into an R110 high this would match the Weekly 50% level (another ideal Risk level)

No High probability pattern for Monday until the 110 bar completes, and use spiral points for Risk-swing trades...

SPI Trading 18th February 08 part 2

10:08

SPI opened down and trading below the 5-day 50% level...

The open was down 44 points from Friday's highs, and the 5-day 50% level is 5582..

I DON'T see any worthwhile longs in the market today, unless it hooks above with an R44 hook....

This looks like its wants to go down into the Dilernia Pivot.... 5482

On sidelines until things settle...

SPI Trading 18th February 2008

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Please read the Australian Index Weekly Report before proceeding....

SPI Range bound between Quarterly support @ 5493 and 6026.

Last Week the SPI consolidated in a 5-day sideways pattern, so I'm are looking for a breakout of the range and move into a 2-3 day trending period favouring upside, with the potential to move as highs as 5921 if US markets move higher on Monday (read US Weekly Report)

Friday’s trading was about trading the long side and looking for the Upside Gap to close @ 5638. When price opened below 5586 this pushed price down before a late short-covering rally around the R44 low reversal pattern

Today the gap @ 5638 will close and we are looking for further gains towards the 5-day highs @ 5702. (First target the Weekly highs @ 5686)

Around 5638 or R44 Spiral top could have some intra-day resistance before pushing higher on Monday, hopefully from an R44 low...

Support 5602

Two plays today:- it rises upwards from 5602 into an R44 top and then just continues higher...

Or the best set-up is a failure around 5638 and trading longs from an R44 low or Support

I'll be looking to trade around support with the view the R44 will complete upwards, and it might not come back down...

I also understand the price is below the Weekly 50% level (bearish) and if it's trading below Support (5-day 50%) the entire Upside move on Monday is open to Risk.

Note:I will be changing my Blog posts to a lunchtime and afternoon recap of trading instead of multiple posts.

On many occasions once the market settles into lunchtime there are often trading patterns that can provide high probability afternoon set-ups using spiral points and timeframe levels.

SPI Trading Recap posts:- 12.20 and 15:20