DOW E-mini trading 18th March 2008

DOW and E-mini Daily charts

US markets range bound within the Weekly channels, and coming into March Contract expiry this Thursday.

Yesterday's price action in the overall mayhem of the Bear Sterns collapse was a sign that in the short-term the worse could be over.

There is no pattern that suggests the worse is over, that will be confirmed with the break of the 3-day highs and trading back above the Weekly 50% level, but the resulting UP day in a market that was saturated with bad news can't be ignored.

DOW and E-mini intraday....

Risk level in US markets are shown above (red line), and Support is a critical level on Tuesday if it gets down that far today.

Currently US markets are pusing upwards, with the DOW moving up from the 5-day 50% level, if this continues higher before the market opens, then the Weekly 50% levels are viewed as higher resistance in early trading and I'd would like the market to come back down and test support.

If the markets are hovering around RISK when the markets open, then the view is that price is rising up into the Weekly 50% level.... before deciding on whether US markets continue to rise higher into Thursday.

Basically use the levels above for intra-day trading. There is no major set-up for today.

Bearish pattern is a break of support.

FOREX GBP/USD 18th March 08 part 2

GBP Daily and intra-day charts

Since the previous report this morning GBP has rising off the Weekly and Monthly critical support zones (read previous report), and it's a good sign that price is now above 1.9999, and I hope it stays above it.

I would like the see Tuesday be able to close above the Weekly 50% level, and then hopefully continue higher on Wedneday.

Risk always increases around 110 pips off the lows.....

SPI Trading 18th March 2008 part 5

SPI 14:13

Price is pushing back down into the lows taking out my trailing stop + 5.

Afternoon market has got two options:- move down into a 2nd R 44 Spiral low @ 5063 around 14:36 and attract buyers into the close.

Or it's going to head down into the lows and the March 5056 once again...

SPI Trading 18th March 2008 part 4

SPI 12:48

SPI moved up into 5119 and rotated back down. 5119 was this morning's 'sell-zone', but I didn't short trade down, because i'm leaning towards the markets rising.

SPI reversed down into another R44 low....

Entry L 5077 Added 5086 (R11 reversal)

Partial exit 5099 + 13

Looking for an an R44 move upwards and hopefully a continuation into the 5-day 50% level.

Next exit 5106 (+ 29) and holding 1 lot into close of the 5-day 50% level....5160

Trailing stops @ 5082

FOREX GBP/USD 18th March 2008

GBP/USD Daily chart

GBP has come down into the March 50% level and has found support around the Weekly .618 range low.

The previous report I mentioned that price looked to be coming down on Tuesday into the Weekly .618 low and this low is a critical level on the March trend.

In an UP trend, you are going to get 3- day reversals, but those reversals should be supported at critical timeframe support levels, and both the Weekly .618 and March 50% level are those critical levels.


Monday's trading was about the 3-day lows, and started with a 110 pip rally before reversing down and breaking the 3-day lows.

As expected the 3-day lows became resistance and pushed down into the 5-day lows.

The only conclusion I can see is by the current price action, which is finding support.

I can't see a major reversal upwards on Tuesday, all I can see is a small range day with an UP bias, but any UP move should continue higher on Wednesday.

A break of the Weekly .618 low, and price looks to be pushing back down towards 1.9740.

SPI Trading 18th March 2008 part 3

11:46

SPI has risen up from the R44 lows and probably move into a sideways range, hopefully it will continue higher into the close or towards the 5-day 50% level, as per morning view of markets finding their lows.

Exit 5107 + 38

Neutral positions

SPI Trading 18th March 2008 part 2

10:40

SPI very slow and choppy this morning, I was hoping that the SPI would hit 5119 to short-trade down into an R44 low (high 5115).

And now around the R44 low there isn't any buying support atm.

looks to be pushing down into the March lows again...

Long 5074 stopped 5067 -7

long 5069 partial exit 5078 +9

SPI Trading 18th March 2008

SPI Daily and intraday charts

For the amount of negative news on Financial stocks coming out of the US, the FED move along with the market discounting the bad news with an UP day, says a lot.

And with our market hitting the March lows yesterday and bouncing, this probably looks like the we are close to hitting a bottom in this Quarterly timeframe, and hopefully markets begin a rise upwards in the new Quarter, helped with a rise in the week of March contract Expiry.

Today:- Higher open and higher Spiral point

Hard to go long with a Spiral point @ 5119.

I would like to see a down move on open, complete the R44 lows, and then rise upwards into the 5-day 50% levels.

But like most rallies on the Australian market lately, a double r44 range nomally stalls and drifts lower.

Maybe with March lows being reached this might change.

Note: Yesterday my view was for the Market to head down towards March lows. This was completed yesterday, therefore I'm leaning to UP moves this week because of the contract expiry and what transpired in the US on Monday.

But everything needs to be verfied i.e move back above the 3-day highs and Weekly 50% level.

DOW E-mini Trading 17th March part 2

US markets have remained stable and have risen upwards on Monday.

With all the negative news out, I would have thought that the 5-day 50% level would have stopped Monday rising. It did for most of the trading day, but a late rally into the close does set-up for an interesting trading week.

This Week is expiry week of March Contracts, and there is a tendency to push the market higher into Expiry.....

FOREX GBP/USD 17th March 2008 part 4

GBP/USD Daily and intra-day charts

Over 6 hours since the last report and GBP has remained Range bound between the 3-day range lows.

At this stage with the breakout of the 3- day lows and re-test and failure (3-day breakout), it looks like it will push down on Tuesday into the Weekly .618 low.

Then it becomes critical on how valid the UP trend in March is going to be....(full report later)