FOREX GBP/USD 19th March 2008 part 2

GBp/USD Daily and intra-day charts

GBP pushing up from the Weekly 50% level and the target remains the 3-day highs....

Read previous report to see the level that needs a confirming move above the 5-day 50% level....

Once again 95-110 pips UP move and Risk increases

DOW E-mini 19th March 2008

DOW and E-mini Daily charts

Both the DOW and E-mini have moved towards their 3-day highs, and are trading around the Weekly .618 highs.

In fact US markets aren't that far away from the March 50% levels, and it won't take much to push them above those highs, especially with the March contracts expiring this week.

Note: we can see the 3-week dynamic high channels as shown in both charts above....

DOW 12674 and E-mini 1375

Since the start of this year, US markets and along with the Australian market havn't been able to trade and close above those trailing Weekly levels.

So those upper levels will be important reference points, but they will shift higher with each proceeding Weekly timeframe.

DOW and E-mini 5-day patterns and intra-day charts

Both markets closed above the 5-day highs, this often pushes the market higher the next day.

But it's still 8 hours before the US day session opens, and hopefully those two markets can come down and test the Risk levels before heading higher....

At this stage the bias is to rise higher into Expiry, but there can be intra-day weakness.

Day-traders use the levels above....

SPI Trading 19th March 2008 part 5

SPI 15:30

SPI hovering around the higher Spiral top 5276 , and still looking for the down move into the 5-day 50% level.. simply using the spiral pattern as Risk play...

Entry 5273 partial exit 5267 + 7 trailing $ stop breakeven @ 5279

Note: today is the last day of March contract trading, so everyone should be trading June contracts as of tomorrow...

SPI Trading 19th March 2008 part 4

SPI 14:25

coming into the last 100 minutes of trading and volume should be picking up soon, but the direction is unknown.

Market pushed down close to 5227 (50% level), and now trading upwards into an R44 high.

I've been sitting in a short position in 5274 (partial exit 5269) and running a $ dollar breakeven stop @ 5278)....

It's either going to take out my stop and climb higher into the close, or hopefully continue down into an R44 low and the 5-day 50% levels into the close......

At this stage it's an each way bet into the close, but today the market has opened above the 3-day cycle high 5222, and looks to be closing above the 3-day high, the first time in many weeks......

FOREX GBP/USD 19th March 2008

GBP/USD Weekly and Daily charts

GBP is supported above the March 50% level and Weekly .618, and there was an expectation that Tuesday would have an UP bais, but the range would be a consolidating trading day.

My next view was that Wednesday was going to be defined by the Weekly 50% level, as long as Tuesday closed above it, I would favour Wednesday moving higher.

So far this is what has occurred.....

GBP intraday charts.....

Within the 5-day pattern Wednesday is trading below the 5-day 50% level, so it's hard to have a forgone conclusion that Wednesday will move higher, certain things need to happen to verify the UP move, because when we look at the chart on the left the market looks choppy.

An UP move should be verifed with a break aobve 2.0166. and a target of the 3-day highs @ 2.0267, and then the 5-day highs @ 2.0424.

Looking at the ranges on the right (43 pips), traders can use the trend bias of yesterday's breakout @ 2.0045, with any upside target based on the 3 and 5-day highs.

Note: there is no high- probability trade on Wednesday because of where price is trading in relation to the 5-day 50% level.

Trading longs below 2.0045 on Wednesday is high risk...

SPI Trading 19th March 2008 part 3

SPI 11:00

SPI drifting back down into 5227 and could go lower into 5205...

I took the gamble of getting out at 5273, hoping that I would get an R22 rejection pattern to play out, but it hasn't and it's continued down into an R44 low and probably continue down further.

WBC:- My exit target on WBC was $23.90 but because the SPI was drifting lower I exitted WBC @ 23.71 (average price 21.17)

That's my first exit on the four banks with just on 12%, now it's waiting for the others.....

SPI Trading 19th March 2008 part 2

SPI 10:03

SPI rallied on open and has moved up 43 points....

The higher the UP move in early trading has worked out better, because of the potential of a greater reversal back down into rotation zones than just 44 points.

I would like to see a move back to at least 5227 the previous 50% level.....

Entry short 5300 partial exit 5290 +10 holding with stops @ 5306....

But if stopped out I would still look to short the down move or gap closure....

I'm not interested in trading longs around the first 44 point low because of the lower level 50% level is more than 44 points...

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Exit 5273.... +27 (10:15)

SPI Trading 19th March 2008

Dilernia Principle:- 2 timeframe wave pattern towards the Channel lows from the crossover...

Breakout of January (Crash pattern) and move down into March lows.....

"And with our market hitting the March lows yesterday and bouncing, this probably looks like the we are close to hitting a bottom in this Quarterly timeframe, and hopefully markets begin a rise upwards in the new Quarter, helped with a rise of March contract Expiry this week."....Yesterday's morning report

Now looking for a rotation back towards the April 50% levels.....

SPI Daily and intra-day.....

Monday was about trading down into the March lows, and Tuesday was about trading up from lower spiral points, with the expectation that the bottom had been set by Monday's trading.

Today:- higher daily open and expectation that the market will come down and fade back into the 5-day 50% levels (44 points down)

We have seen constantly over the past few weeks, that any higher open and price trading above the 5-day 50% levels, the market will just continue lower.

There was only a brief trading period in late January that on both occassions when the market opened above the 5-day 50% level there was a rally into the 5-day highs. (both Friday's)

Today will be interesting because after the gap closure down, traders should have a fair idea about the direction of the market and whether the market will begin a move back towards the 5-day highs and Weekly 50% level.

My trend risk for today is 5205

Note: In the Banking 'stock report' I mentioned that my trading position on CBA will be exitted @ 42.40, I have moved that upwards to $43.90.

Other banking stocks exit zones on trading positions will remain as last report.

I was hoping there was going to be more weakness in CBA this week so I could enter a 3rd lot around $35.40, but I don't think that's going to happen.

http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/2008/03/banking-stocks-15th-march-2008.html

DOW E-mini 18th March part 2

" Yesterday's price action was a sign that in the short-term the worse could be over. There is no pattern that suggests the worse is over, that will be confirmed with the break of the 3-day highs and trading back above the Weekly 50% level.,...."

Tuesday's price action is the first sign that the worse could be over, but it is now the follow through into the end of the trading week that I would like to see continue, with a breakout of the Weekly .618 and continuation towards the March 50% levels.

Expiry of March contracts this Thursday will provide a helping hand.....

Both Markets moved higher from the 5-day 50% level, and have continued higher into the 5-day highs

Only the E-mini had any selling pressure put on it around the Weekly 50% level, but the push back down wasn't far enough and both markets have continued higher....

Full Report later....

FOREX GBP/USD 18th March 08 part 3

GBP/USD intraday charts

GBP has continued higher and has moved into an extended high zone, which was my view of the range for Tuesday.

Rest of the Trading day has a random outcome, but a good sign to be rising up from the support zones on Tuesday:- Weekly .618 and Monthly 50% level