DOW E-mini 31st March 2008 part 2

DOW E-mini Intraday

DOW pushing down on open of the trading day towards the 5-day lows, whilst the E-mini remains choppy either side of the Support levels...

Both Markets are finding support around the Weekly 50% levels, so I can't see too much weakness on Monday other than a consolidating day.

Above Risk and it's looking to get some BUYing towards the 5-day 50% level.

FOREX GBP/USD 31st March 2008 part 2

GBP/USD intraday

GBP breaks intra-day support and moves down into the 3-day lows....

Intra-day trend remains down, and will remain down whilst price is trading below RISK.

Price needs to move back above Risk in the new day for any UP move to take....

DOW E-mini 31st March 2008

DOW and E-mini Daily charts

US markets rotating down into Weekly support zones with 1 day remaining until the end of the trading Month and Quarter

There will be some support around those levels on Monday, but any Upside follow-through will probably occur from Tuesday and the start of the new Month.

Keep in mind that Price is trading below higher timeframe 50% levels, and a break below the Weekly .618 levels on the last day doesn’t go well for any upside moves in the early part of April.

DOW and E-mini intra-day charts

Breakout on Friday to the downside and expectation price is pushing down into the lower levels on Monday.

In any normal trading set-up, I would have looked for a push down into Support and then a counter-trend move upwards, with a continued higher move from the April 50% levels.

Because Sunday is part of a trading day, the lower levels have shifted upwards, therefore it's not providing a robust lower swing point and Support:- to BUY and then hold on a short-covering reversal.

Day traders simply use the Risk and Support levels on Monday….

Above and its moving UP:- Not expecting much upside but back into the 5-day 50% levels.

Below and it’s move down into support zones..

SPI Trading 31st March 2008 part 6

SPI 15:20

Just over 1 hour to go till the end of the trading month and SPI is slipping into the close, as it looks to be rotating back down into April 50% level.....

No trades since the last report....

Next Report Tomorrow

SPI Trading 31st March 2008 part 5

SPI 13:10

SPI has come down into an R44 low and has pushed back upwards.

Each way bet on the direction of the close, as an R44 low can go higher into the close.

Or it can rotate back down as it closes out the last trading day of the month.

Entry L 5385 exit 5395 +10 to be neutral.

I'm not going to trade again today, as I prefer to wait until today closes and then trade again from tomorrow.

I was only interested in trying to take around 10 points each trade today, and I've done that....

Going for a Jog...

FOREX GBP/USD 31st March 2008

GBP/USD Weekly and Daily charts

GBP trading under the Quarterly 50% levels and this is the trend guide for the next 3-months.

Last trading day of the month and GBP is trading around the Monthly 50% levels, waiting for the market to 'thrust' out of the central points and move towards the extreme of the channels once again.

At this stage price is in the middle of Monthly and Weekly 50% levels, so it's going to be a better guide on the direction as of tomorrow.

Last Week GBP reversed back down into the 3-day high break and found support above it. A Robust set-up would be price rising upwards from the Monthly 50% levels once again....

GBP intraday

Still trading above support and RISK..... @ 1.9907

I don't have a probability on direction for Monday's trading, because at this stage price on the last day of the month is trading below every timeframe 50% level, so it's hard to say that April will move higher until April actuallybegins.....

Tuesday will provide a much clearer view on any trading set-up for April....

SPI Trading 31st March 2008 part 4

SPI 11:29

Last short trade today, and I won't trade again until the afternoon.

Trailing stop on previous trade stopped -2

re-entry 5422 partial exit 5412 and 5409 +13 Neutral positions

Might even take the day off.

Next SPI report 15:30

SPI Trading 31st March 2008 part 3

SPI 10:53

SPI has pushed up into the R44 high and slightly more....

Around the R44 looking for some price action 'stalling' and at least a 22 point reversal would be ideal....

Entry S 5418 stopped 5425 -7

Entry S 5422 partial exit 5412 + 10 Stops 5424

Looking for exit @ 5408....

But it won't surprise me to see higher prices today....

SPI Trading 31st March 2008 part 2

SPI 10:22

SPI pushing up into an R44 high @ 5418, as it follows the lower Spiral point open.

I have a feeling the SPI is going to move back towards last week's highs @ 5443.

There might be a short-term weakness around the R44 top, but it won't surprise me to see it higher today.

No trades today, as I was waiting to see if Price would push down into an R22 low to trade upwards.

On sidelines at this stage.

SPI Trading 31st March 2008

Please Read the Weekly Report....

SPI Daily and Intra-day charts

Last trading day of the Month and the closing price of today will set-up our levels for the next month.

It is also the last day of the Quarter and the closing price will set-up the important 50% level that will help define the overall secondary trends for the next 3 months.

My view is price is moving down into the April 50% level, which will be confirmed tomorrow.

This April 50% level can provide a springboard for the next move upwards towards 5521 this week. Therefore I'm looking for lower prices this week before it can move higher.

Today:- A Lower spiral point doesn't favour a move down on open, it statistically favours a push upwards before it can reverse down.

Risk level on open is 5392 and I don't have a probability set-up today.

5392 is the low of the last R44 bar, and if its going to continue higher today then it will remain above this level.

If it's going to move back down into the 5-day 50% levels then I would be looking for a 22 point rejection under 5392.

In conclusion: Even though I'm looking for Price to push down into the April 50% levels, it's not necessarily going to happen today. Today could end up being an UP day, and tomorrow could be the day that comes down and tests the April balance point.

Trading strategy today is:- take 10-20 points using levels and R22 spiral points where I can, because I don't have a major probability pattern and level to confirm the daily direction, and there has been a major drop in volaility last week, so there's no guarantee that there will be a 44 point follow through completion, as was the case for the first 3-days last week.

Support:- Weekly 50% level and .618 low, as shown in the daily chart.