SPI Trading 11th July 2008 Recap

"trading longs from a higher open and near the 5-day 50% level is not a probability pattern, unless 4972 comes into play.

Because I have no view on direction I need to factor in the Spiral filter.

I'm going to think today is going to be similar as yesterday, once price meets the spiral filter @ 4948....

The past 5-days have been choppy, and I'm not sure Friday is going to be any different"

Morning Report



Recap 15:50

SPI Daily and 5-day pattern


SPI opened at the 5-day 50% level and sold down into the spiral filter @ 4948.

There was a push down into the Weekly lows @ 4929, and once again another choppy trading day to close out the trading week.

Weekly Report tomorrow



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DOW S&P Trading 10th july 2008 recap

"Trend down and won't change until price is trading above the Weekly 50% level.

Thursday:- simply trade on the side of the blue channel.

no probability direction for Thursday"

Yesterday's report
DOW daily and 5-day pattern

DOW remained flat below the channels on Thursday.

US markets are still supported around July's lows, with the Weekly 50% level dropping, and getting close to the current price action.


Posted by

SPI Trading 10th July 2008 recap.

"Today the SPI will be opening around the Weekly lows 4929, which can become an important support zone.....

However, the 5-day filter @ 4935 is our trend guide.

Often when the market 'gaps' open price usually moves down 21 points before any Buying comes into the market, which also aligns with a spiral filter.

If this is going to happen, then it should be pushing down from 4935.

Trend guide today is 4935, above is it's moving up to close the gap from yesterday @ 4973"

Monrning Report


SPI Daily and 5-day pattern


Market opened below 4935 pushed down 21 points and then slowly moved it's way up towards the 'gap' from yesterday.

The rest of the day moved in a rotating pattern, which often was 'choppy', and the usual probability patterns of 44 point rotations.

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S&P (e-mini) DOW 9th July 2008 Recap

"Wednesday:- price looks to be testing the 5-day 50% level....

Two plays:- rotation down and use the 5-day 50% levels as support

Trading longs below the 5-day 50% level is open to Risk on Wednesday, and global markets remain flat".... Morning Report



S&P Daily and 5-day pattern

Expectation that a higher daily open on Wednesday would push down into the 5-day 50% level, before any up trend could continue.

Once below the 5-day 50% level, it follows the trend back down into the lows again.


Posted by

SPI Trading 9th July 2008 Recap

Morning Report....

US markets reversed off their lows, with the S&P moving higher and the DOW moving back towards their 5-day highs.

As mentioned in the Weekly report, a reversal pattern would be lead by US markets breaking out of their 5-day highs, which hasn't happened yet, but close.

5000 is the trend guide

Set-up A :- moves higher from 5000 breaks the 5-day 50% level and follows the same pattern as US markets back towards 5068....

Set-up B:- moves down and closes the gap from the previous R44 high @ 4977 and then continues higher back above 5000....


SPI Recap 16:20


SPI followed Set-up B today;- moving down to close the gap @ 4977, and then continued higher, but there wasn't any follow through on the upside towards 5068.

Instead rotating in 44 point ranges and remaining below the 5-day 50% level @ 5015.

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    • Posted by

    S&P DOW Trading 8th July 2008 recap



    S&P Daily and 5-day pattern

    US markets reversing off their July lows and moving back towards the 5-day highs.

    A breakout of the 5-day highs is a 2nd confirming pattern that a short-term low has been found, and price begins a rotating back towards the Juyl 50% levels....

    Posted by

    SPI Trading 8th July 2008 Recap

    "Whenever there is a breakout of the Weekly timeframe and Friday closes below, price normally continues down towards the next weekly lows after a 2 day consolidation.

    In the Weekly chart the same pattern, breakout of June's lows @ 5100, can send the market down into 4836 before any reversal pattern back towards July's 50% level occurs"

    Weekly Report


    "Below 5000 and it's pushing down 44 points, and then it becomes a random day, much like yesterday...

    As long as I'm trading on the correct side of 5000 and I know that price will move 44 points away from that level." (once Monday's 44 point range completes)

    Tuesday's report



    SPI Daily and 5-day pattern

    SPI continues down into the Weekly lows, confirmed with the rejection pattern away from 5000 on Tuesday, and the minimum move of 44 points downwards.

    It wasn't until Monday's range completed @ 4993, was the pattern confirmed and the down move verified into the lower 5-day levels.

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    • Posted by

    S&P DOW Trading 7th July 2008


    "US market nearing the July lows....

    Whilst the S&P looks like rejecting price around the channel and sending Monday lower, and into the 5-day lows"....

    Morning Report


    S&P Daily and 5-day pattern

    S&P hits July's lows, and the DOW isn't that far behind.

    S&P on Monday, followed the set-up once back under the 5-day 50% level and moving down into the 5-day lows and finding support.....

    Now it's a case of waiting the first sign that a reversal in the market in July is going to take place with a break of the 5-day highs, as per Weekly Report.

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    • Posted by

    SPI Trading 7th July 2008 Recap

    "If the SPI is going to have an UP bias, then it should be rising upwards and moving towards 5125 today... re-testing 5042 and then continuing higher.

    Even though I've factored in a possibility of further weakness towards 4876, I'm favouring continuation upwards.

    Note : High risk trading longs below 5042..... as it's following B set-up from the Weekly Report"

    Morning Report




    SPI Daily and 5-day pattern

    SPI opens below 5042 and moves down into an R44 low, and then consolidates below the March lows of 5013 for most of the day.

    Posted by

    Index Futures & Forex Reports 5th July 08


    Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...


    Australian Index (SPI) Futures

    http://austindex.blogspot.com/

    DOW and S&P Index Futures

    http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/


    EUR/USD, AUD/USD. GBP/USD

    http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


    Note: Weekly BHP and Banking Reports Update

    http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/



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