SPI 6th November 2008 Daily Recap

SPI 16:20

Yesterday completed the reversal back into the November 50% levels, and the first sign of a reversal is a break of the 5-day 50% level.

A bullish day would have bounced off 4208 and moved back above towards 4263 and higher.

An unwinding pattern of any reversal is how price reacts to the 5-day 50% level, and that wasn't a good sign today.

As long as the SPI remains above 4173 tomorrow then this weekly pattern will consolidate.

Below 4173 tomorrow, and things are starting to unwind.

At this stage price didn't react as if it was bullish, but doesn't mean it can't go higher tomorrow.

Note:- As previously stated, a close below 4315 this week and I'd be leaning to more weakness next week :- higher Weekly open and selling down from the monthly 50% level



This will align with Wednesday's 'gap' close (possibly tomorrow) and then look for any 'selling' patterns next week.



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    • Posted by

    DOW S&P Daily 5th Nov 2008 recap



    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Any up trend this week was dependant on the daily support holding and continuing towards Wednesday's highs.

    Once the support levels didn't hold, prices dropped back to the lower levels in the 5-day pattern

    Posted by

    SPI 5th November 2008 recap

    Today's higher open completes the rotation back into the Monthly 50% levels.

    I have modelled another down move into November's lows, but at this stage any down move won't occur until after the end of this Week's trading. Basically any down trend would need to have a Friday close below the Monthly 50% levels and then continue down from a higher Weekly open the following Week.


    However, it won't surprise me to see the SPI push back towards it's 3-week highs, which matches the October low breakout.

    Today:- 5-day high resistance and expectation of a gap fill on the downside, using either 4360 or 4329.

    4263 is random support.

    At this stage the SPI hasn't come back and re-tested the 5-day 50% levels this week, and probably won't today.

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    SPI Monthly and 5-day pattern

    Early sell down from 4329, but didn't reach 4263...

    As mentioned in the Daily report, I wasn't expecting any further weakness on Wednesday, and if US markets continue higher on Wednesday, as they look like they will the SPI will continue following the 5-day pattern higher:- 4484

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    • Posted by

    DOW S&P Daily 4th November 2008 Recap

    "Higher Weekly open and looking for a 2-day pullback-stall.

    Break of support on Monday and expectation of a 2-day pull back into next days support or the 5-day 50% level.

    Tuesday's 5-day high random resistance"



    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Tuesday in US markets continue to move back into the November 50% levels, and could go as high as the Weekly highs this week.

    Ideal pattern of moving down into support and rising higher didn't play out today.

    Posted by

    SPI 4th November 2008 recap

    "As yesterday's recap mentioned:- the rest of this week should be defined by Monday's 5-day high breakout @ 4153.

    A Breakout of a 5-day high range can lead to further gains (especially in bull trends or above Monthly 50% levels)

    A Reversal into the Monthly 50% levels (balance-point) and below 4153, can lead to a slow unwind, with price rotating back into the 5-day 50% levels"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI trading above the Weekly 50% level, and a breakout above Monday's highs @ 4153 pushing the market higher, helped by the Reserve bank cut in % rates after 14:30.

    There was an early push down below 4153 of 44 points, and then a higher move back into the Monthly midpoints late in the day.

    But it makes it difficult to make generalisations about trading either side of a certain levels:- 4153


    SPI spiral filter

    But when price moves from below the filter to above the filter, then the trend should be easily managed, and allows the trader to minimise risk and maximise profit on directional moves.



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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) 3rd November 08 recap

    "This is a higher Weekly open, which more often than not will reverse 2-days, and if US markets are going to continue higher then price should rise up from the 5-day 50% levels.

    Last Week I was bullish because of the Weekly hook pattern, which pushes price higher into Friday.

    This week there is a higher Weekly open, so i'm looking for a stalling pattern over 2-days:- therefore trading longs below Yellow daily support is open to Risk"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    First day of the stalling pattern on US markets.....



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    • Posted by

    SPI 3rd November 2008 recap

    SPI opening right on the Weekly 50% level @ 4086.

    Is the SPI going to reverse down from this level.... or continue higher on Monday back the Monthly 50% levels?

    I don't know at this stage, but with the Reserve Bank cutting rates tomorrow (probably), the bias is leaning towards pushing higher into Tuesday....

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Last Week US markets 'hooked' above the Weekly 50% level and continued higher into Friday, and today on the SPI was the first confirming pattern of a reversal with a cross over of the Weekly 50% level @ 4086.

    Today's rally has gone straight into the monthly balance point @ 4215 and stalled.

    This levels becomes a critical level in any trend guide for November, but with today's breakout of the 5-day high, this often sees higher prices in the coming days.


    At this stage price looks like it will continue towards 4315...

    However the first sign of weakness will be price trading back below the Weekly 50% level, and then below the 5-day 50%.

    The rest of this week should be defined by Monday's high @ 4153

    And this will depend largely on US markets....


    Posted by

    Index Futures, Forex Reports 1st Nov 08

    Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

    Australian Index (SPI) Futures

    http://austindex.blogspot.com/


    DOW and S&P Index Futures

    http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

    EUR/USD, AUD/USD. GBP/USD

    http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/

    Note: Weekly BHP and Banking Reports Update

    http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/



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    • Posted by

    DOW S&P Daily 31st October 2008 Recap

    "This is the first time since August that the US markets have been able to remain above their Weekly 50% level on the 3rd day (Hook)

    Above the Weekly 50% level and expectation of higher prices on Friday:- simply trade on the side of support"

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    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    US markets followed the 'Hook' probability pattern of a higher close by Friday...

    The swing upwards has coincided with price moving back into the November 50% levels:-

    These 50% levels are now the trend guide for the next Month:- Ideal pattern would be to see 1 more drive down into November lows to finally bottom out this market...


    "October lows resistance (breakout forms resistance), and the trend guide for the 4th Quarter will be defined by the November 50% level.

    If that's the case:- then around November lows could provide the ideal 'swing' low for a swing UP towards the 2008 lows breakout:- higher close into the end of 2008"

    11th October Weekly report





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    • Posted by

    SPI 31st October 2008 Recap

    "Last day of the month, and it's important where today closes because it sets up November's level and the potential next down move:- Weekly Report tomorrow

    US markets were lackluster on Thursday:- I expected more buying off support on Thursday resulting in a push towards the 5-day highs, which would have resulted in the SPI opening around 4140 and our 5-day highs.....

    Today is simply about 4024


    Below and it's a trading day which will could end up slipping back down into the 5-day 50% level:- with short covering after 14:50"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Trade on the side of 4024:- push down towards the 5-day 50% level @ 3928.

    Never got down that far but short-covering back into 4024,which often is the case on Friday's

    Note:- If US don't have a major rally on Friday with a breakout of their 5-day highs, but instead reverses back and drifts down on Friday, then things don't look so great early next week:- Weekly report tomorrow


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