SPI Report 26th November part 3

13.55

SPI has followed the expectation of higher prices this week, and now price is hitting the Weekly 50% level @ 6477.

This level has defined the direction of most global markets on the way down in November, it's going to define the trend this week.

A confirming bullish market would continue higher and closing above the 3-day highs. That would be the first sign that the trend has change when both occur, especially as it rises upwards from the previous 87 point high.

The previous 87 point range supported the market @ 6422, and another follow through upwards of 87 points matches the 3-day highs and closure above it @ 6507..

FOREX Report 26th November 2007

GBP/USD

Currency looks range bound in November, with only this week left before new Monthly Dynamics are verified. The November 50% level has supported the currency this month and the new December 50% level will be critical in defining the trend next month.


Friday's partial exit at the top of the 90-pip zone got traders out, however the rotation back down on Friday was more than I expected, taking out breakeven stops from entry.

5-day 50% level is supporting price, with the expectation that the next move will be towards the 90 pip high once again, before Risk increases. (partial exit or exit at 90-pip high)

No Major set-ups for the rest of the week.

EUR-USD

Trailing support has confirmed the up trend, however Friday's reversal and now Monday's price action is pushing price down into the Weekly 50% level.

No trades as price is trading around 90 pip spiral lows.

SPI Report 26th November part 2

10:30am

Higher Daily open coming down into an R44 low @ 6417.

With any further down move into gap @ 6383.

Even though an R44 low can often provide a swing back towards the highs or back towards the pivot highs, a lower daily close followed by a lower Daily open will provide better longs in the market tomorrow

Partial exit @ 6440 (r22) and 6423 (top of the R87 range @ 6422) Neutral position.

Not trading longs today...

SPI Report 26th November

SPI completes rotation into major support around November 50% level @ 6363, and this is also the 2007 Yearly high. Whilst price remains above the higher timeframe 50% levels, then the expectation is that the Australian market will move higher in 2008 towards the upper levels using Yearly timeframe dynamics.

There are two major support levels:- 2007 Yearly high breakout, confirmed with the November 50% level. The current price action at this stage confirms major support around November 50% levels, and often this provides the next 2-month Upward wave pattern.

Short-term:- Expectation is upward next week:- lower weekly closed followed by price rising from a lower weekly open using higher timeframe support. (Weekly report)

9.00am

Today:- Risk 6437

Even though the expectation is for the market to move higher this week, today the SPI will open higher which also aligns with Dilernia-Pivot tops and the 5-day 50% level, so buying these highs today is open to risk.

When we look at most upmoves, they are occuring on Tuesday, after push lower on Monday. Best longs will normally come around a R44 spiral point low or Tuesday....

With the higher open, Upper Dilernia Pivots, and 5-day 50% level, I won't be Buying the open.

Weekly Reports 24th November 2007

Weekly Report for DOW, ES-minis, and SPI can now be found by clicking the Report links to the right.

Weekly Report will be posted on the Weekend

Dilernia Model Technical Analysis:- Medium and Long-Term forecasts, trading set-ups, cycles, trends, support, resistance, swing points, and Market Timing.

For Day-trading and high probability trading set-ups visit this page everyday.

US report 23rd November part 3

Support around the November lows has been verified with the move back above the 5-day 50% level.

This market move was what the Wednesday Swing trade was about, with UP move coming 1-day late.

My expectation is for a continuation back towards the Weekly 50% level and move higher towards the new monthly 50% level in December before the next move down towards the December lows, as it follows the Dilernia Principle of a 2-timeframe wave pattern in lower lows before any major support and new UP trend can develop in 2008....

Full report found in the Weekly Index Analysis by clicking the US Index DOW and S&P to the right.

US Report 23rd November part 2

DOW and ES-minis

US Markets rising upward from Monthly support following the rotation upwards from the lower close on Wednesday and heading towards the 5-day 50% level.



The 5-day 50% level is going to define whether both markets are going to head upwards towards the 3-day highs or drift back down into the close.

No set-up for Friday's trading. Next set-up next week...

US report 23rd November 2007

DOW and ES-minis

US markets are trading around or below the extremes of the higher timeframes.

I expect very similar price action on US markets today, as what has occured on the SPI today:- A down bias, with the next best trading set-up next week.

These higher timeframe levels are major support zones:- below and expectation is a lower weekly close on Friday.

Above Support and expectation is a rotation back to the 5-day 50% level and then providing traders with next week's set-up.

Any push down and expectation that buying support will come around the same levels as other days. We have seen buyers prop up both markets on numerous occassions around the blue channel lows.

The 5-day 50% level still defines the trend:- don't trade longs below channel lows..

FOREX REPORT 23rd November GBP/USD

GBP:-

2-day stall at the Weekly 50% level, and today confirms the break with the expectation that there will be higher prices into Friday, and the overall move back towards the Blue channel highs.


Report continues below....

2-day stalling pattern on both days, and the 90-point spiral points have provided the springboard for each UP move in this market.

Today with the break of the 5-day highs and Weekly 50% level the expectation is a continuation upwards…

Traders can partial exit around 2.0758 and continue to hold