Weekly Index Reports now available (30th December 2007)

Click Weekly Reports to the right.



In 2008 I will be introducing the ‘ the Trader Stock Report’

The stock report will feature the largest stocks by market capitalisation along with their own Index. For example looking at the financial Index along with a number of Banks.

I will also take a close look at Australian stocks trading under $1.00

I will trawl forums and find out what others are talking about, and then analyse the stock using higher timeframe levels as ‘fair-value’.

I’m not interested in ‘day-trading’. I want to find stocks that are consolidating around their Quarterly or Yearly 50% levels, and then BUY and hold the stocks for a number of months.

This might take a number of weeks or even months for any move higher to eventuate, but the goal is to find stocks that could ‘double’ in price over a 6-12 month period using market dynamics, as many follow Quarterly patterns within the Yearly timeframe.

Buying as close to 'fair-value' allows traders to minimise Risk...

Happy New Year and Happy Trading in 2008

Forex GBP/USD 28th Dec 2007 prt 2

GBP reversed down from upper channel on Friday, and expectation of rotating back down is to re-test the 3-day high break and 5-day 50% level.

These levels are extremely important for any upside move next week, because a bullish currency should test and bounce off these levels, and then begin a swing back towards January 50% levels.

We can see the Shift in 'Time' and the potential downside if there is any more weakness next month based on market dynamics:- December support disappears

DOW E-mini Report 28th Dec 2007

Both Markets reversed down on Thursday breaking the 3-day lows.

This week's expectation was that a price would reverse back down and re-test the Weekly 50% levels, if this is valid support zone then the next day should rise higher.

However, I also have a view that US markets would have a 'down' trading week. (lower close on Friday)

However, statistically there is a 72% chance that the day after price closing below the 3-day lows, then next day will be UP..

The DOW is trading below the Weekly 50% level, whilst the ES is above, but both are trading below the 3-day break.

Early price action is going to be dictated by the 5-day 50% level, the trend either way is going to be easily defined by this level.

Down and it will be into support zones.

Above and it can either stall at the 3-day break or continue back towards the recent highs again.

Note:- if the market pushes down early and then swings upwards, but fails the move back inside the 3-day lows, then that could set up a move down early next week.

Full Weekly report tomorrow....

SPI Trading 28th Dec part 3

10:30

Exit all longs @ 6334

The move is completing the R44 range from 6295

Rising upwards from a lower daily open after a 2-day reversal and the market can continue higher. There is nothing to suggest that the market will reverse down after the 44-point completion today.

Weekly Report:- “ A failure around the Weekly 50% level, will be part of the rotation back down after the change of 3-day cycle… I favour at least a 2-day rotation-stall before any up trend is going to occur”

There is only 1 more trading day after today, which will set-up extremely important levels for 2008. (Full Weekly report)

Beautiful day in Sydney, off to the beach….

SPI Trading 28th Dec part 2

9:55

opens @ 6295 and Risk level

Long 6300 partial exit 6312

moved stops above today's lows @ 6296

Note: 5-day 50% 6310 market trading below

SPI Trading 28th Dec 2007

US markets have pushed the SPI lower overnight. This wasn't unexpected because my view favoured a lower Weekly close this week after last week's UP trend.

It is obvious that the Weekly 'gap' won't close, and any failure of the Weekly 50% level 6377 will often push price back down towards the 3-day break of 6269 and also the 3-day lows (6218)

This lower open today completes the 2-day stall-reversal from the Weekly 50% level @ 6377, after the change of cycle on Friday.

Risk 6295

Monday's lows, and today's open will have lower spiral points.

I prefer to go 'long' from lower spiral points, and go 'short' from higher spirals

So my view is trade longs, this also aligns with the 5-day 50% level.

Ideally I would like to see the R44 range 'gap' close (44 points up) before any reversal down...once again looking for 22-44 point moves.

However, also respect the Weekly trend, because it can easily continue down towards the 3-day lows, which are 6218...., so I won't be trading longs below Risk today.

Note: 6251 and Quarterly 50% is a major level.

Forex GBP/USD 28th Dec 2007

Expected breakout and continuation higher into Friday.

Expected reversal back towards January 50% levels.

Long positions:- Now it depends on the type of trader you are because it determines on whether you want to hold any longs or exit the trade at this level, and that depends on how many lots you are trading.

1:- Expectation after a 3-day cycle break price can often come down and retest the level before continuting higher. Highest probable reversal zone is Friday upper blue channel. Breakout level matches the 5-day 50% level. (support)

2. A trending week will try and chase the Weekly 50% level 2.0108

I would partial exit at this level today (also 90 pip spiral top) and hold, with the expectation that Friday will continue higher.

If wanting to re-enter longs then the best level would be around the 5-day 50% level...

DOW E-mini Report 27th Dec part 2

Expected reversal back into the higher timeframe 50% levels, but Thursday continued down much further closing below all major levels that defined a 'bullish' trend.

This reversal pattern wasn't un-expected, as my view this week would be a 'down' tredning week after last week's higher close.

Even though the market has broken all levels, normally the next day would higher close (Friday)

Full report later..

DOW E-mini Report 27th Dec 2007

No change from Yesterday's Report.

Bullish Trends using timeframe analysis:- price is above Monthly and Weekly 50% levels.

3-day cycle:- BUY

Expectation of a re-test of the higher timeframe 50% levels and 3-day cycle lows during this week before any up-trend can continue.

Above blue channel highs and Weekly trend is bullish

Forex GBP/USD 27th Dec part 2

Wednesday ends and Thursday begins, drops the 5-day 50% level down and GBP heading upwards.

Next level is to break the blue channel highs, and then expectation price will remain outside of these highs until Friday. (Random length Range)

Anyone long using the 5-day 50% level as entry, partial exit here and run stops below 5-day 50% level and hold into Friday if price 'breaks-out' above resistance.